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BC: Keys to victory

Toss up game. We need to avoid mistakes and not turn the ball over and not allow big plays. Vegas thinks it is a toss up. Usually the home team gets 3 points.
 
Lohengrin said:
BC opens up at -2 vs Wake. Underdogs in our "easiest" ACC game this year.
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1. It's on the road, which makes it likely to be "harder" than the Duke game.
2. Most advanced stats have Wake favored.
3. They are going to play the game anyway despite the line.
4. Can you stop being miserable for literally one post? You are unbelievably negative regardless of the situation or topic when it comes to Wake sports.
 
Did anybody think we'd be favored at BC? I hope not. +2 is pretty good.
 
BC plays a different style on offense than recent BC teams. In last week's win at N. Illinois, BC threw 42 passes. They also ran 91 plays (which is a ton). They play at a fast tempo this year. BC also likes to run orbits and reverses to its receivers. Likely that this game will result in more points than any WF/BC game in a while. Also, BC has the #1 rated OLB in the country in Harold Landry (#7) barring injury or an expectedly horrible 2017 season, Landry will be a #1 pick in the 2018 NFL draft. He had 16 sacks last year. WF will need to gameplan for him. Big plays will make the difference. Unlike years past, WF has the players that can make big plays. This game may actually be more entertaining than agonizing.
 
PhDeac said:
Did anybody think we'd be favored at BC? I hope not. +2 is pretty good.
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I actually thought it would open as a Pick'em. Sagarin and Football Study Hall has Wake as a favorite, and Vegas usually falls roughly in line with that.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
1. It's on the road, which makes it likely to be "harder" than the Duke game.
2. Most advanced stats have Wake favored.
3. They are going to play the game anyway despite the line.
4. Can you stop being miserable for literally one post? You are unbelievably negative regardless of the situation or topic when it comes to Wake sports.
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You're a freakin' moron, dude. Everything I wrote is FACT. There is no "miserable" insinuation in my post whatsoever. Why are you so stupid and intimidated?

What that line shows is that despite picking us 5th in our division, Vegas still thinks we'll lose to the worst ACC team in the conference. That's THEIR determination, not mine. It's a comment on Vegas, who btw got our Presby game right on the money.

Doofus, I know you're a timid little puke who cannot face reality in any form and need to bludgeon mindlessly those who depart from your rigid and preferred groupthink you seek to impose here, but for your own sake chill the fuck out.
 
It's funny to think that the O/U for this game (around 43) is more points than have been scored in the last TWO games between these teams combined. And one of those games went to overtime. #therivalry
 
Lohengrin said:
You're a freakin' moron, dude. Everything I wrote is FACT. There is no "miserable" insinuation in my post whatsoever. Why are you so stupid and intimidated?

What that line shows is that despite picking us 5th in our division, Vegas still thinks we'll lose to the worst ACC team in the conference. That's THEIR determination, not mine. It's a comment on Vegas, who btw got our Presby game right on the money.

Doofus, I know you're a timid little puke who cannot face reality in any form and need to bludgeon mindlessly those who depart from your rigid and preferred groupthink you seek to impose here, but for your own sake chill the fuck out.
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This. :golfclap:
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
Honestly, watching the BC game last night made me feel better about the game than I did prior. BC defense didn't look like anything special against a much smaller and severely less talented NIU team. NIU was getting pressure on the BC qb and their oline held up well for the most part (until the end of the game they got worn down a bit). I think we win by 2 scores.
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Has BC had even a decent offense since Matt Ryan graduated?
 
Lohengrin said:
You're a freakin' moron, dude. Everything I wrote is FACT. There is no "miserable" insinuation in my post whatsoever. Why are you so stupid and intimidated?

What that line shows is that despite picking us 5th in our division, Vegas still thinks we'll lose to the worst ACC team in the conference. That's THEIR determination, not mine. It's a comment on Vegas, who btw got our Presby game right on the money.

Doofus, I know you're a timid little puke who cannot face reality in any form and need to bludgeon mindlessly those who depart from your rigid and preferred groupthink you seek to impose here, but for your own sake chill the fuck out.
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Great post. You nailed it.
 
bobknightfan said:
Great post. You nailed it.
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Yet you still have 4,500 posts on this message board alone, not to mention the thousands more you have deleted on here, and the other websites you have posted on.

Unbelievable how you can hate a message board so much and still come here every single day. Seems pretty messed up if you think about it.
 
Lohengrin said:
You're a freakin' moron, dude. Everything I wrote is FACT. There is no "miserable" insinuation in my post whatsoever. Why are you so stupid and intimidated?

What that line shows is that despite picking us 5th in our division, Vegas still thinks we'll lose to the worst ACC team in the conference. That's THEIR determination, not mine. It's a comment on Vegas, who btw got our Presby game right on the money.

Doofus, I know you're a timid little puke who cannot face reality in any form and need to bludgeon mindlessly those who depart from your rigid and preferred groupthink you seek to impose here, but for your own sake chill the fuck out.
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This is not at all how Vegas lines work. Pilchard has explained it many times on here. Just because Vegas opens BC -3 doesn't mean they think BC will win by 3 points.

Carry on though.
 
Lohengrin said:
What that line shows is that despite picking us 5th in our division, Vegas still thinks we'll lose to the worst ACC team in the conference. That's THEIR determination, not mine. It's a comment on Vegas, who btw got our Presby game right on the money.
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It's mind numbing to know people are out there who still don't understand how the initial lines are set
 
My understanding is that Vegas "sets the line" based on their perception of what the bettors will do, and/or to make a profit on the predicted spread. That doesn't interfere with who is projected as the favorite and the dog in their lines. It's based on beliefs of what the beliefs of the bettors are as to the winner.
 
I think the offense finally has the pieces to be explosive. Looking for a couple big plays by Dortch to be the difference.
 
Lohengrin said:
My understanding is that Vegas "sets the line" based on their perception of what the bettors will do, and/or to make a profit on the predicted spread. That doesn't interfere with who is projected as the favorite and the dog in their lines. It's based on beliefs of what the beliefs of the bettors are as to the winner.
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That's true and most bettors are wrong, which is why Vegas continues to offer sports gambling; so, betting lines are not designed to be treated as predictive of the game result, but are designed to maximize the money that Vegas makes. WF was a dog last year at Duke (when most people even here among WF fans thought the line, Duke favored by 5, was way too low; and the vast majority of the action Vegas received was on Duke) Indiana was favored 6 (which again the public was wrong about); and in WF's bowl game WF was an 11 point dog to Temple (which again many here liked the Temple side; and again, the public was massively wrong about).

WF does not get and will never get a lot of public money (which means WF is often a very good play ATS, which is WF often receives a lot of sharp action), but which also means it's even less predictive of the actual strength of the teams that are playing.

Just don't think its accurate to claim that BC/WF line demonstrates that the WF football program is not going in the right direction.
 
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Pilchard said:
WF does not get and will never get a lot of public money (which means WF is often a very good play ATS, which is WF often receives a lot of sharp action), but which also means it's even less predictive of the actual strength of the teams that are playing.
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Was intrigued and looked this up.

Wake AtS:
2016 8-5
2015 6-6
2014 6-6
2013 5-7
2012 5-7
2011 8-5

2003-2017 86-85
If you bet $100 on wake every game since 2003 you would be down $750

Best record AtS since 2003 - Temple 101-66-1
Worst record Ats since 2003 - Illinois 68-96-2
 
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