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Bracketology 2017

Time to get back on subject. Here's today's bubble rooting guide, have bolded ones that matter more than most:

FSU to win @ Clemson - Kill off the Tigers
Missouri State to win vs. Wichita State - If WSU doesn't win the MVC tourney, give the committee as much doubt about them as possible
South Carolina to win vs. Tennessee - Vols' last chance for a quality win, and last stand to make the tourney
WVU to win @ TCU - Would give the Frogs their best win of the year and move them 2 under in the tough Big 12. Lose this one and their hopes fade considerably
Northern Iowa to win vs. Illinois State - With so few midmajors on the bubble, will ISU get thrown a bone if they fail to win the tourney? Losing this game would end their unbeaten run vs. not-Wichita in this conference and give the committee more reason not to include them
VCU to win @ Rhode Island - Can't see URI getting in going 0-fer against Dayton and VCU, with two of those taking place on their home floor
DePaul to win vs. Seton Hall - A bad L would be a nice blow to the Pirates' resume. DePaul on a one-game winning streak, keep it rollin'!
Miss. State to win @ Vandy - Vandy's fate will be more decided in their last two games @ Kentucky and vs. Florida, but this obvs would be a huge blow to them
Purdue to win @ Michigan - Tend to think the Wolverines are going dancing, but them not picking up another quality win here would be ideal
BC to win vs. VT -- If we wind up tied w/ the Hokies @ 9-9 the chance exists we'd get the nod over them, esp with their terrible non-conference schedule
A meteor in Marquette @ Providence -- Your guess is as good as mine in this one. At least a Big East bubble team will finally take on an L
Oklahoma to win vs. Kansas State - Unlike TCU no chance for a quality win for KSU here, but like them an L here drops them to 6-10 in the Big 12. If they both lose today, very unlikely they both get in since one would be guaranteed to finish 7-11 in conference (they still play each other)
Texas A&M to win vs. Alabama - Tide barely hanging on to bubble hopes. This should end them.
Indiana to win vs. Northwestern - NW with a tough remaining sched, if they lose out maybe they'd be in some trouble. IU should be dead already, esp with two tough games left after this
Auburn to win vs. Arkansas - The Hogs have taken care of biz lately and are in pretty good shape, but a loss here can't hurt us
 
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Regardless of what rating system you use it seems like there is some real cognitive dissonance in valuing a team in the 70s that has beaten a couple of top 25 teams (according to X metric) over a team ranked in the 30s in the very same metric.

It's basically saying "we should ignore this metric because of how a team performed against an arbitrary group within this metric we are ignoring."
 
RChildress107 said:
Regardless of what rating system you use it seems like there is some real cognitive dissonance in valuing a team in the 70s that has beaten a couple of top 25 teams (according to X metric) over a team ranked in the 30s in the very same metric.

It's basically saying "we should ignore this metric because of how a team performed against an arbitrary group within this metric we are ignoring."
Click to expand...

It's not arbitrary. Those good teams are the ones they would likely play in the tournament.
 
RChildress107 said:
I'll add that a Miami win over Duke would be nice. It would be great if Miami could go on a little run so we can backdoor our way into another quality win.
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Or if they lose today it improves our chances at a bye
 
WakeFanatic said:
Anyone listening to him calling the Clemson/VT game could obviously tell he was cheering for Clemson. He literally cheered when they hit the shot to take the lead near the end and was completely quiet when VT hit the dagger. He was talking about the bubble and kept pounding home how Clemson had beaten Wake twice and how they deserved to get in. No mention of Wake's credentials. I guess his bitterness is just now coming out because we've been so horrible since his firing and he hadn't had to worry about us getting in to the tournament.
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At least he hasn't been leaking our plays to the other basketball teams like other former Wake Forest announcers that "were" on the air. He is correct about one thing--we were beaten by Clemson twice. On the other hand we did beat GT at our place quite handily and they are considered a bubble team. Beat Louisville and we can be in the discussion. Lose and it gets real tough as our only credible win is Miami.
 
TBDeac said:
It's not arbitrary. Those good teams are the ones they would likely play in the tournament.
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his point is that a team gets credit for a top 50 win for beating wake, but when evaluating wake as a team, we don't get credit for our high ranking
 
TBDeac said:
It's not arbitrary. Those good teams are the ones they would likely play in the tournament.
Click to expand...

Setting it at 25 or 50 is arbitrary.

If only there were a system that could measure the overall quality of each team's wins and losses we wouldn't have to focus so much on how teams played against the best 25 teams according to a system that measures the overall quality of a team's wins and losses.
 
Rhode Island up late on VCU - not good.

WVU in a close one vs TCU - good (assuming they close the game).

Illinois State beats Northern Iowa - not good.
 
A kick out 3 down 1 with that much time left? Ouch TCU.
 
Dude straight up air balled that wide open three to essentially put TCU on the right side of the bubble. Good news for wake! VCU once down at least 13 is now down 4 with 3 minutes left.
 
Big 12's path to 7 teams looking increasingly unlikely.

Hopefully at most either Rhody or Illinois State gets in. I'd give URI the edge between the two at the moment
 
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