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Conference Expansion: Stanford, California and SMU Join the ACC

DemonDeke said:
I don't see Clemson being Big 10 material. They already have programs that are equivalent to them, and they are about to have a lot more money.

Maybe as a non-AAU rural buddy for Nebraska?

I think Clemson could turn out sucking in the Big 10.

FSU, not really a B10 school either. But it is Florida. If I were the B10, I'd rather have Miami.
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The only Big Ten program that is close to being equivalent (at least in results) to Clemson is Ohio State. And even then Clemson has 2 championships to their 1 and 6 playoff appearances to 5 for OSU.
 
Liquid Karma said:
Why do people keep acting like UVA matters at all? Nobody really gives a fuck about them.
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Academically prestigious flagship university in a big state. That's the Big Ten profile.
 
Sco Deac said:
The quote I found most interesting was, "When conference leaders discuss the possibility of adding new teams, there are two constants, 1) the SEC will only consider adding teams from the ACC IF the ACC first falls apart and teams are available to join a new conference..."

Stated differently, ESPN will not allow the SEC to poach from a viable ACC. ESPN has a cash cow with the ACC for now and has no interest in cannibalizing that asset to marginally increase its SEC asset.
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"UNC is key. They don’t want to leave. They have long been the big draw of the ACC and have lots of power already. I cannot imagine they can stomach being a second-tier draw with minimal power in a football-first conference."

The two highlighted sentences are mutually reinforcing.

If UNC / UVA or UNC / Duke left, it would be eviscerating. (I would damn them 10-fold what has been reserved for MD). If the SEC then grabbed FSU and Clemson, it would be fatal. (I don't think it would be fatal if only FSU and Clemson left and UNC et al stayed.)

I say that partly because I accept an ACC that is less powerful than the Big 2 and will only contend sometimes while playing natural peers. Which I think almost every school in the ACC ought to realistically think, with only FSU and Clemson (and Miami in its delusions) having any reason to think otherwise. (I think FSU and Clemson are delusional if they think things will be better for them and their institutions in the Big 10 or SEC. Miami is going to Miami wherever they are.)
 
PhDeac said:
Academically prestigious flagship university in a big state. That's the Big Ten profile.
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So, basically, another Indiana.

I think UVA would vanish from sports consciousness if they joined the Big 10, like Maryland. (They would probably suck more than Maryland in football though.)
 
DemonDeke said:
So, basically, another Indiana.

I think UVA would vanish from sports consciousness if they joined the Big 10, like Maryland. (They would probably suck more than Maryland in football though.)
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Is Indiana prestigious? UVA donks consider Mr. Jefferson’s university a public Ivy.
 
PhDeac said:
Academically prestigious flagship university in a big state. That's the Big Ten profile.
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In a sports context is anyone other than UVA alums tuning in just to watch their brand?

I don't get why they are listed as some sort of linchpin to the viability of the ACC.
 
DemonDeke said:
So, basically, another Indiana.

I think UVA would vanish from sports consciousness if they joined the Big 10, like Maryland. (They would probably suck more than Maryland in football though.)
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I forget Maryland still exists. You NEVER hear about them except and occasional March madness bracket.
 
Liquid Karma said:
In a sports context is anyone other than UVA alums tuning in just to watch their brand?

I don't get why they are listed as some sort of linchpin to the viability of the ACC.
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Yeah wouldn’t VT be a much bigger draw from there? And seems like the B10 likes schools with engineering and ag stuff.
 
Don’t UNC and UVA have comparatively tiny student enrollment compared to Big Ten schools? Just being the flagship in a big state does not mean you have a big 10 type fan base
 
WokeandBroke said:
Until you factor in the cold, hard reality of the math, this is a good post. This part in particular is underrated.

The only sad part is we can't kick Notre Dame out. I understand that their dry humping our schedules for five nonconference games per year adds broadcasting value we can't afford to shed, but $280M divided by 14 schools barely covers the revenue gap for one year on a per-school basis. That's not going to keep Clemson in the fold.

If we were to add Stanford and Cal, I would make a 12th hour push to also add Arizona and Arizona State. Adding two makes almost no sense. Add four, make them all take a discount to board our life boat (in exchange for the promise of full membership in 2036), and create a West Coast Basketball Division.

Big Four Division
West Coast Division
Florida/Georgia/SCAR Division
Virginias/Louisville/ND
Yankee Go Home Division (Cuse, Pitt, BC, UCONN)

Divisions play home@home against themselves, and two teams from each other Division. Five division champs get autobids to NCAAT.

On the football side, 20 teams floods the t.v. inventory. Sign deals with the RingDoorbell Network, Al-Jazeera, and the Turner Classic Football Game to play Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Fridays. The ratings for December bowl games show that Americans will watch an endless supply of football. It's either that or slowly get picked over by the Big10 and SEC.
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Why would the present day value lump sum be anywhere near $700 million? Interest rates are high. FSU gets a deal for $50 mil/year over 13 years. That is $650 million. Plus the exit fee. Think someone said that is $120 million. So that’s $770 million payable over 13 years.

According to a free present value calculator online the present value is $365 million. You’d likely have to reduce that slightly but fine, take the present value and distribute it now, put it to good use, get rid of a malcontent (it is not good for the ACC to have FSU bitching about how shitty the ACC is) and add two schools to show you are moving forward with a plan.
 
If you consider Rutgers part of the New York market, North Carolina and Virginia are the two largest states not in either the Big 10 or SEC. The mega conferences are now to the point where it is essentially a land grab competition between those two, and NC/VA is essentially the only populated area (an area which is growing) that is not touched by the Big 2. Getting UVA and UNC locks up the Carolinas. There really is no other area left that matters.

Even so, don't think the SEC coverts NC/VA that much, but most importantly, they don't want the Big 10 to get it and creep closer to their territory.

The mistake that people make is the thinking that being good matters the most. It doesn't. Stanford appears to be one of the 4 Pac-12 schools left out in the latest shuffle. Except for USC, they have shown the most recent potential to be dominant in football.

Stanford football in the 9 seasons from 2010 to 2018 was top 5 in country in winning %. Most SEC and Big 10 schools could never achieve their success.

6 Division Titles, 6 New Yers Six Bowls, 3 Pac-12 titles, 3 Rose Bowls, 59-15 in the Pac-12, 6 times finishing the season in the top 12, 4 times finishing in top 7, twice in the top 4. Look at these seasons:

2010: 12-1 Orange Bowl, 4th in the Nation
2011: 11-2 Fiesta Bowl, 7th in the Nation
2012: 12-2: Rose Bowl, 7th in the Nation (Pac-12 Champ)
2013: 11-3 Rose Bowl, 11th in the Nation (Pac-12 Champ)
2014: 8-5: SF Bowl, No ranking
2015: 12-2: Rose Bowl 3rd in the Nation (Pac-12 Champ)
2016: 10-3: Sun Bowl, 12th in the Nation
2017: 9-5: Alamo Bowl, 20th in the Nation
2018 9-4: Sun Bowl No ranking

Keep in mind that Stanford had those seasons, playing a full Pac-12 schedule and Notre Dame every year. If winning in football matters, how in the world could Colorado, Arizona or even Washington get picked ahead of Stanford?

What matters most is market share, and the biggest available market share by a massive amount is NC/VA. VA's population is about the size of Iowa and Wisconsin combined and bigger than Arkansas and Oklahoma combined
 
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SMU would be great. Add Cal and Stanford and SMU, get $300 million from FSU to throw around and hope the GOR will hold something together for a few years. ACC needs to take steps to survive until 2030 and then hope the landscape has changed sufficiently by then that no one wants to leave.

That landscape can change if tv money dries up, or if ACC starts winning at football (honestly if every school made the relatively-sized investment into football as WFU the ACC would be rolling), or if football as a sport in general waivers even a little. Honestly given the absurd money NBA players make with the length of their careers, the popularity (and money) behind soccer, and the brutality of football, why are prime athletes still funneled to football?

It would also help if FSU had a hard post-exit landing, either in the deal it strikes or if they just get pummeled on the field.
 
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