Conference Expansion: Stanford, California and SMU Join the ACC

[PhDeac]

We haven't seen the numbers from 21-22 just yet, but there was apparently a "sizeable" increase from 20-21 where they ND TV rights + money from the Orange Bowl being a non-playoff game that year. They lost about 10% of their revenue from that year and seem to be grabbing more money because of ACCN hitting full distribution. Think the idea is that's going to continue to increase with another full year of distribution and how that contract is structured, believe it's more backloaded.

There's about another $200M+ that they get from Bowls, the NCAA in general, and the NCAAT. That more than likely is the revenue that's going to be shared differently, which makes sense to influence people to actually not be completely dog shit. Perform well: you get more money. The more people that perform well, the more money there is in general.

So which athletic departments would be more motivated under a new system than they are right now?

The "G-League" in any scenario is more likely to be remaining P5 conferences whose best players will transfer to the SEC, Big Ten, and ND but who will get the guys who can get on the field in those conferences. That's already happening to some extent but it will ramp up more if the NIL money grows like the TV money.

If the SEC and Big Ten are smart, they'll figure out a way to launder than TV money into NIL money.

 

[Biff Tannen]

Hey, things are changing. But TCU playing for an outright national championship isn't something that had much of a chance of happening over the past 60 years and it just happened four months ago..

 

[NJDeac’22]

this will ruin college sports.

It basically already has.

 

[Biff Tannen]

So which athletic departments would be more motivated under a new system than they are right now?

The "G-League" in any scenario is more likely to be remaining P5 conferences whose best players will transfer to the SEC, Big Ten, and ND but who will get the guys who can get on the field in those conferences. That's already happening to some extent but it will ramp up more if the NIL money grows like the TV money.

If the SEC and Big Ten are smart, they'll figure out a way to launder than TV money into NIL money.

This is the key. How long will it be before college athletes who generate money to the networks and university are considered employees ?

 

[jamesda3]

Pitt and Cuse are quiet because no one wants them. If the ACC falls apart, could see Cuse joining the Big East and become an Indy in football. Their fanbase has never warmed to the ACC. The Cuse fanbase wants to play UCONN, St. Johns G'town and Nova in hoops every year.

I would be open to a top notch basketball conference bring up Villanova etc… but I thinking getting in a conference with APP and ECU takes every advantage we had over them and it will be trouble.

 

[PhDeac]

This is the key. How long will it be before college athletes who generate money to the networks and university are considered employees ?

Not sure. But how long will it be before State U uses that TV money to hire JFD Construction to build the new athletic building and the JFD CEO and VPs all donate six figures to the main State U NIL collective? Probably not long if it hasn't happened already.

 

[NJDeac’22]

Hey, things are changing. But TCU playing for an outright national championship isn't something that had much of a chance of happening over the past 60 years and it just happened four months ago..

I think more people care about maintaining rivalries, regionality, culture, etc. than a random school in Texas getting blown out in a natty because the B10 choked again. People will always watch college football, and what has been created is going to make so much money, no longer used to prop up those that lose money, that you can no longer say these are schools and are amateur athletic programs. They're businesses, and schools should lose accreditation for the amount of money they're pumping into it while charging criminal numbers for an education.

 

[Pilchard]

So if all goes well, when the SEC schools are making $100 million apiece in 2028, we'll be close to $60 million because we had a good season.

BTW, if that chart is accurate, why would any ACC team want to dissolve the ACC to join the Big 12?

This would take some back-channel dealing, but unless the SEC and Big 10 are giving out invites to 8+ ACC teams (not happening), the only reason to dissolve the ACC would be for the Magnificent 8 to convince each other that by dissolving the ACC and forming their own conference (and maybe grabbing a team from the Big 12, although the schools left in the Big 12 are all lame), they could negotiate a TV deal which far exceeds the current ACC deal. Lots of risk.

 

[PhDeac]

BTW, if that chart is accurate, why would any ACC team want to dissolve the ACC to join the Big 12?

This would take some back-channel dealing, but unless the SEC and Big 10 are giving out invites to 8+ ACC teams (not happening), the only reason to dissolve the ACC would be for the Magnificent 8 to convince each other that by dissolving the ACC and forming their own conference (and maybe grabbing a team from the Big 12, although the team left there are all lame, they could negotiate a TV deal which far exceeds the current ACC deal.

Because the new Big XII TV deal runs through 2030-31 and the ACC deal is until 2036.

See the article I posted above with the FSU AD complaining that UCF could make more money than FSU in less than 10 years.

 

[Pilchard]

Because the new Big XII TV deal runs through 2030-31 and the ACC deal is until 2036.

See the article I posted above with the FSU AD complaining that UCF could make money money than FSU in less than 10 years.

So, these 8 genius ACC schools want to play in a twenty team Big 12 (I guess the Big Twenty) for the next 8 years?

 

[thatguy2016]

I haven't ruled out the possibility that some of the Magnificent 8 have or believe they will get invitations to either the SEC or the B1G, but they are misleading their fellow 8 into leaving with a promise they will all be together.

 

[Biff Tannen]

BTW, if that chart is accurate, why would any ACC team want to dissolve the ACC to join the Big 12?

This would take some back-channel dealing, but unless the SEC and Big 10 are giving out invites to 8+ ACC teams (not happening), the only reason to dissolve the ACC would be for the Magnificent 8 to convince each other that by dissolving the ACC and forming their own conference (and maybe grabbing a team from the Big 12, although the schools left in the Big 12 are all lame), they could negotiate a TV deal which far exceeds the current ACC deal. Lots of risk.

Yeah, I think that the supposed Mag 8 looking for a new and deal is the only logical reason to dissolve the ACC. But there's no reason to think they can get it. Pairing with the Big XII, or some trimmed down version of it, doesn't put them in a better position, imo.

 

[morrison2951]

Currie on ACC PM To Packer: "Don't believe everything that's coming out from the media... the Swiss win! The Swiss are efficient!

 

[jamesda3]

College football and basketball won't be great without the SEC and B1G.

When they are a glorified g league and it’s about the love the game for the rest and not NIL again I think it can be great again

 

[Biff Tannen]

So, these 8 genius ACC schools want to play in a twenty team Big 12 (I guess the Big Twenty) for the next 8 years?

Yeah, ESPN's going to laugh in their faces when they tell them they want their money.

 

[Pilchard]

Realize that its not King Football, but the most valuable regular season college basketball property is Duke v. UNC. ESPN makes a shitload off hyping those two games every year (three if they play in the ACCT). Hope Duke tells UNC to go F themselves if UNC leads the charge to dissolve the conference. The UNC/UCF hoop game to finish the season just doesn't have the same juice.

 

[spritethr]

I think we should all just form one really big conference and split everyone up in regional divisions

 

[LilburnDeac]

I see this all as an attempt to get leverage from the FSU, Clemson, Miami types. They feel like they aren’t getting enough credit for their “brand” but they also know there isn’t really anywhere for them to go. So they are trying to strong arm the ACC into changing the revenue share. The other schools are joining in with them in hopes of getting more too.

 

[LilburnDeac]

Realize that its not King Football, but the most valuable regular season college basketball property is Duke v. UNC. ESPN makes a shitload off hyping those two games every year (three if they play in the ACCT). Hope Duke tells UNC to go F themselves if UNC leads the charge to dissolve the conference. The UNC/UCF hoop game to finish the season just doesn't have the same juice.

They won’t.

 

[morrison2951]

I see this all as an attempt to get leverage from the FSU, Clemson, Miami types. They feel like they aren’t getting enough credit for their “brand” but they also know there isn’t really anywhere for them to go. So they are trying to strong arm the ACC into changing the revenue share. The other schools are joining in with them in hopes of getting more too.

Clawson says bring it on!

Wake Forest’s Dave Clawson on idea of #ACC weighted revenue sharing: “If revenue distribution is based on investment in football, and on the field success, I think that'd be great. And I think Wake Forest would be very comfortable with that model.”