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Coronavirus !!! Very Political Thread !!!

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tiltdeac said:
Best data we have right now is the icnarc for the UK. Roughly 50% mortality if you are on a vent at any time from Covid, closer to 65% if need a vent in the first 24 hours of critical care. Check figure 12 in the pdf of that link.

https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
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So looks like 25% death rate if you are young and get into critical care (50-75% for older folks). Also, don't know if I'm reading it correctly, these numbers don't seem as if prior health issues/obesity are as significant of a factor as previously assumed. I.E., it seems more deadly to the younger crowd than I would have thought.
 
Newenglanddeac said:
GOP lawmakers: Fauci may be doing more harm than good


Republican Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.) and Ken Buck (Colo.) criticized Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, for the impact of his social distancing recommendations, claiming that the stay-at-home policies informed by those recommendations have forced businesses, workers and corporations into economic turmoil.

“For Fauci, is it merely a societal or economic inconvenience that about 17 million workers are unemployed because of the government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, with many more to come in the weeks and months ahead? The economic calamity lies largely with the origination of policies resulting from Fauci's recommendations,” the lawmakers wrote in an op-ed in the Washington Examiner published Saturday.

Biggs and Buck, both members of the conservative Freedom Caucus and staunch allies of President Trump, join others on the right in criticizing public health officials on the administration’s coronavirus task force. On Tuesday, Tucker Carlson, a conservative commentator on Fox News, said that Fauci “shouldn’t be making economic decisions.”

Full: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/492359-gop-lawmakers-fauci-may-be-doing-more-harm-than-good
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DeacMan needs to clue them in that "To be clear, their number one obligation is the health and safety of their citizens."
 
The Republican Party is a nefarious assembly of wreckers and saboteurs. You would be insane to trust them. Treating any problems that arise while we’re under the thumb of their oppression as problems typical of any bureaucracy is either disingenuous or incredibly naive.
 
thatguy2016 said:
IHME predicted deaths in Italy to fall significantly April 10-11 (616 total; high end of range 931)

Actual deaths in Italy over those two days: 1,189
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New cases are jumping there too, although I think that has more to do with testing. The data to really watch is new hospitalizations. It is the one thing we can actually look at to gage progress.
 
Math today - which I suspect is light in places bc of Easter weekend.

First, the USA. Perhaps NY will come in with more math late - they sometimes do, but as things stand now new cases are down below 8,000 today. That's after posting over 12,500 yesterday. They have not been this low in several days.

Total new cases in the country are at 29,340 right now. Washington and Cali could post some more I guess, but that's a solid step down from the 35,000 plus yesterday. FWIW, every state I track reported lower new cases today vs. yesterday save California. NJ was down very slightly - basically flat. I question whether this holds though. I think the Easter impact could be real. Not as big an issue as I suspect exists in Europe with holiday reporting. But I'm suspect.

Italy posted over 4,600 new cases today. Ugh. But I hear they are now testing many more people and I'm hopeful their hospitalizations are still dropping (don't have that data handy). Rest of Europe save Switzerland was lower on new cases today vs. yesterday. I'm not a big buyer on their data though given the holiday and the Euros' love of holidays.

Japan. Brutal day. Over 1,200 new cases today. That more than doubles their previous high for new cases in a day. And they have tested fewer people per capita than almost every developed country in the world. Singapore also could be losing its grip on containing the virus.
 
Per capiita death rates so far by state (as well as DC).

New York - 42% of all US deaths to date
New Jersey
Louisiana
Michigan - Together with NY, NJ and LA represents 63% of all US deaths to date
Connecticut
Massachusetts
DC
Washington

USA as a whole - States above this line (including DC) represent 72% of all US deaths to date

Illinois
Rhode Island
Indiana
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Georgia
Vermont
Nevada
Delaware
Maryland
Mississippi
Oklahoma
Wisconsin
Ohio
Kentucky
Florida
Alabama
Missouri
Kansas
California
South Carolina
Tennessee
New Hampshire
Idaho
Virginia
Arizona
Maine
Oregon
Minnesota
Alaska
Iowa
New Mexico
Texas
North Dakota
Nebraska
North Carolina
Arkansas
South Dakota
Utah
Montana
Hawaii
West Virginia
Wyoming (only state with zero Covid-19 deaths)
 
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WakeForestRanger said:
The Republican Party is a nefarious assembly of wreckers and saboteurs. You would be insane to trust them. Treating any problems that arise while we’re under the thumb of their oppression as problems typical of any bureaucracy is either disingenuous or incredibly naive.
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Our President is an epic asshole. That does nothing to explain the math many developed nations with vastly different governments are facing as they try (and largely fail) to wrestle with this. Those things are not mutually exclusive.
 
I can’t keep up now so sorry if already posted...

Interesting brief story describing the Covid19 experience of an infectious disease and epidemiologist: 'Everything Broke Loose': A Doctor And COVID-19 Survivor Recalls His Ordeal

Worth a quick read, IMO.

His recounting of his impression of taking certain medication is, of course, merely anecdotal.

But I think he’s largely correct about how we can anticipate moving forward.
 
Happy Easter !!! Time to open up this country and it’s great economy !!!
 
How does the aggressive case contact tracing for TB work? Would it work for something as contagious in as many ways as COVID-19?

The antibody test seems promising. I have a tough time seeing how we move forward from like July to vaccine without an app like China that monitors your movement and contact.

I don’t think enough people understand how bad that two weeks with coronavirus can be. You’re on the verge of death and get pulled back every day. If you’re lucky.
 
DeacMan said:
It isn't just one party that can't run a centralized solution. The very nature of politicians is to dither before they act and decide. For fucks sake one need look no further than just about every single government on this planet to see how woefully prepared almost every one of them was to deal with this issue.

1 - Japan has a testing rate akin to India.

2 - Europe closed no travel with China even as Italy was starting to burn alive. With very limited exceptions they have insanely high death rates on confirmed cases. They all have government run healthcare.

3 - The US. Don't even get me started on the genius within the Federal government who decided we would develop our own test for this thing and dithered away all home we had at pushing out tests quickly. And while we did cut off travel from China to a large degree no one had the common sense to ask if other places were cutting off travel from China. Epic face palms abound.

4 - China. Where do we even begin with that clusterfuck of a cover up from the local Wuhan officials all the way to Beijing. Ultimately the world is FUCKED because of them.

I can't even fathom how long it would take for the Federal government to organize itself to push out money to businesses via the SBA without banks helping them line up all the applications. And then the SBA's website still breaks down.

Governments are bureaucracies. And bureaucracies are never built to move quickly or efficiently. And often they are built to hide the truth. Human nature is just a bitch many times.
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Question about why we decided to develop our own test. Was it because this administration is racist or nationalist USA USA and those appointed to run things believed no one else could do it (despite the reality that they were already doing it)?
 
deaconson said:
Question about why we decided to develop our own test. Was it because this administration is racist or nationalist USA USA and those appointed to run things believed no one else could do it (despite the reality that they were already doing it)?
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I wonder who in the administration knew this and when. Seems like the sort of thing that gets decided and then not reported up the chain in detail until it is too late to change course.

Also, this is a good article. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...ering-response-to-the-coronavirus/ar-BB12uMDp

Consider this passage - Dr. Kadlec and other administration officials decided the next day to recommend to Mr. Trump that he publicly support the start of these mitigation efforts, such as school closings. But before they could discuss it with the president, who was returning from India, another official went public with a warning, sending the stock market down sharply and angering Mr. Trump. The meeting to brief him on the recommendation was canceled and it was three weeks before Mr. Trump would reluctantly come around to the need for mitigation.
 
PhDeac said:
How does the aggressive case contact tracing for TB work? Would it work for something as contagious in as many ways as COVID-19?

The antibody test seems promising. I have a tough time seeing how we move forward from like July to vaccine without an app like China that monitors your movement and contact.

I don’t think enough people understand how bad that two weeks with coronavirus can be. You’re on the verge of death and get pulled back every day. If you’re lucky.
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Read up on South Korea. They have done it. And it has worked. And it is what we are going to need once we have this further tamped down.
 
DeacMan said:
Read up on South Korea. They have done it. And it has worked. And it is what we are going to need once we have this further tamped down.
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Can’t happen without a centralized effort. Do you think that’ll happen with this administration?
 
deaconson said:
Question about why we decided to develop our own test. Was it because this administration is racist or nationalist USA USA and those appointed to run things believed no one else could do it (despite the reality that they were already doing it)?
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From what I’ve read, that’s been the norm for years now - the CDC developed its own test for Ebola and Zika.

Someone just royally fucked this one up and didn’t fix it for weeks.
 
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