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Coronavirus !!! Very Political Thread !!!

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mako1331 said:
So I assume I won’t be going to either London or Disney World this August like I had planned, right?
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Probably not DisneyWorld but I’m looking at booking trips in July or August. The way I figure things will either be lifted then or I get a refund.
 
mako1331 said:
So I assume I won’t be going to either London or Disney World this August like I had planned, right?
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Well, you could get some camping equipment, get on I-40 and take the kids to the London Bridge...in Lake Havasu, AZ...
 
Do it in the next few weeks. May-September it will 100+ most days.
 
vtwhat etc said:
DeacMan- you may have touched on it already, but I've had to correct/qualify the UW projection (Murray) for a few friends IRL that are following this thread.

The 59,000-61,000 modeling only forecasts deaths through August '20 AND it assumes social-distancing will continue throughout that timeframe.

Assuming a proper vaccine is still a year away from the end of that modeling, betting the over with people misinformed about that data is easy money.

I'm guessing I'm not telling you anything new, but I thought I'd put a shitty addendum here.
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I believe it presumes social distancing into June, not through August 4th (when the model ends). And it doesn't pretend that this won't come back in the Fall.

But yes, generally you are right.

I think the biggest public misconception out there (and it isn't everyone but a significant chunk of the population) is that life will somehow return to normal. It won't. The next phase of this that is about to befall the world is the full on collapse of service based businesses. Consider for a second that Goldman Sachs was able to help Carnival Cruise lines raise a ton of cash to stay in business through the end of they year. Whoever bought into that financing bought into a dead business in my view. How do movie theatres, restaurants, etc. really reopen? The theatre would have to make people space out, take temperatures, etc. How much sunk revenue is there? How do they keep the lights on? What happens if the mall where the theatre is located closes? Same issues for restaurants. Very thin margins. How can you operate when you have maybe 1/2 the capacity you used to have and some portion of customers don't want to go out to eat anymore generally?

As for a vaccine, I love the idea of being hopeful, but there are plenty of viruses for which no vaccine has ever been developed: AIDS, MERS, SARS1. And this virus is completely uncontained globally. So you'll be facing outbreaks at different times in different places around the globe going forward. Then there's also this vision of "herd immunity". No one knows how long that actually lasts with this virus. Some viruses you gain immunity for life. Others it might last a year. Who knows how long immunity lasts with this virus. And does that vary from person to person. There are so many more unanswered questions than answered ones.

The no. 1 thing I'd be focused on if I were a public health official in a state is how do I prepare myself for massive track and trace programs for when the second wave of this hits. And given I can't trust other states will implement as well as I may, how do I restrict travel into and out of my state so I can track and trace visitors (Want to visit granny in Florida? Potentially get ready to register and shelter in place before you see her.)
 
The SARS and MERS outbreaks were over before vaccines could really get moving, though, right? And given how expensive vaccine development is, the were shelved is my understanding. AIDS, being a virus that attacks the immune system, is a different animal altogether when it comes to vaccines. Covid19 seems significantly more likely to have an effective vaccine based on my very limited understanding of viruses in general.
 
DeacMan, I agree with you. And the biggest problem is that Americans have no tolerance for the type of measures it would take to actually contain this.
 
mako1331 said:
Never been to lake havasu. Looks nice though
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By the way, the kids will love I-40 about 100 miles into AZ. Out of the hills and then desert, you'll see multiple, full-sized dinosaurs just off the interstate.
 
mako1331 said:
The SARS and MERS outbreaks were over before vaccines could really get moving, though, right? And given how expensive vaccine development is, the were shelved is my understanding. AIDS, being a virus that attacks the immune system, is a different animal altogether when it comes to vaccines. Covid19 seems significantly more likely to have an effective vaccine based on my very limited understanding of viruses in general.
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There has never, ever, been a vaccine developed for a corona virus. Ever. So while I sure as hell hope it happens, we are a long time from that happening and it may not be able to be done. That is where we are right now.
 
PhDeac said:
DeacMan, I agree with you. And the biggest problem is that Americans have no tolerance for the type of measures it would take to actually contain this.
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There isn't a society on this earth cut out for this. And we are in the very early, early days of trying to understand this virus, much less operate with it as a daily risk to our well being.
 
DeacMan said:
There has never, ever, been a vaccine developed for a corona virus. Ever. So while I sure as hell hope it happens, we are a long time from that happening and it may not be able to be done. That is where we are right now.
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True, although there’s never been a push for a Coronavirus vaccine like necessity dictates now. Like I said, I have a very limited understanding of virology as a whole. What is it about the virus specifically that gives you pause? Not being argumentative, just genuinely curious.
 
DeacMan said:
There has never, ever, been a vaccine developed for a corona virus. Ever. So while I sure as hell hope it happens, we are a long time from that happening and it may not be able to be done. That is where we are right now.
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Don’t worry, just like with climate change, technology will solve the problem. We’ll just find some new antibiotic that is smarter than the virus. Prestó! Everything will be fine, like a miracle.
 
birdman said:
Don’t worry, just like with climate change, technology will solve the problem. We’ll just find some new antibiotic that is smarter than the virus. Prestó! Everything will be fine, like a miracle.
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I love y’all, but you ruin my day every day with your insistence on paying attention to reality. Gonna go jog so I can start drinking.
 
mako1331 said:
True, although there’s never been a push for a Coronavirus vaccine like necessity dictates now. Like I said, I have a very limited understanding of virology as a whole. What is it about the virus specifically that gives you pause? Not being argumentative, just genuinely curious.
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You don't think there were pushes to find vaccines for SARS and MERS?
 
mako1331 said:
True, although there’s never been a push for a Coronavirus vaccine like necessity dictates now. Like I said, I have a very limited understanding of virology as a whole. What is it about the virus specifically that gives you pause? Not being argumentative, just genuinely curious.
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Well, it's all the things we don't know and can't know because this thing has been out in the wild for only about 5 months. That gives me a ton of pause.

1 - How long does immunity last if you get immunity? With some viruses that's a year. With others it is a lifetime. We have no idea with this virus.
2 - If someone gains immunity but it sheds, will they be more likely once that immunity sheds to get a lethal case the second time they are infected?
3 - Are people who are not expressing symptoms but have had the virus more likely to get a bad case of it if they are reinfected?
4 - Is this seasonal in nature? Is it more prone to be year round some places and seasonal in others? Why?
5 - How fast does it mutate? And if it mutates what are the odds it comes more lethal?

In re a vaccine, you can't put a vaccine out there that is effective in 90% of people but has massive side effects for the remaining 10%. That's why vaccines take so long in the first place. And after you trial the shit out of a vaccine you then have to produce it in massive quantities. That simply takes time. And we're doing that for a virus for which there is no base vaccine off of which to work.

I could go on and on and on with questions no one can answer, not because we don't have lots of smart people in the world but because we have so little experience with this pathogen.

Trying to find a balance through all of these open questions and keep society functioning is insanely tricky because we don't really understand all the risks. Maybe the risk is "small" on any one issue but if we are wrong about that particular risk it is insanely detrimental to society. That's a a real issue to wrestle to the ground.
 
DM. I hope and pray it will get better.
If it don't soon I can see citizens demand government layoffs.
 
Strickland33 said:
You don't think there were pushes to find vaccines for SARS and MERS?
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Not to this extent. And due to the relatively short nature of the outbreaks, they were shelved after the issues themselves were resolved. Given that, according to the articles that I’ve read, it costs around a billion dollars to develop and implement a vaccine, the projects were largely abandoned after the outbreaks were contained.
 
DeacMan said:
Well, it's all the things we don't know and can't know because this thing has been out in the wild for only about 5 months. That gives me a ton of pause.

1 - How long does immunity last if you get immunity? With some viruses that's a year. With others it is a lifetime. We have no idea with this virus.
2 - If someone gains immunity but it sheds, will they be more likely once that immunity sheds to get a lethal case the second time they are infected?
3 - Are people who are not expressing symptoms but have had the virus more likely to get a bad case of it if they are reinfected?
4 - Is this seasonal in nature? Is it more prone to be year round some places and seasonal in others? Why?
5 - How fast does it mutate? And if it mutates what are the odds it comes more lethal?

In re a vaccine, you can't put a vaccine out there that is effective in 90% of people but has massive side effects for the remaining 10%. That's why vaccines take so long in the first place. And after you trial the shit out of a vaccine you then have to produce it in massive quantities. That simply takes time. And we're doing that for a virus for which there is no base vaccine off of which to work.

I could go on and on and on with questions no one can answer, not because we don't have lots of smart people in the world but because we have so little experience with this pathogen.

Trying to find a balance through all of these open questions and keep society functioning is insanely tricky because we don't really understand all the risks. Maybe the risk is "small" on any one issue but if we are wrong about that particular risk it is insanely detrimental to society. That's a a real issue to wrestle to the ground.
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This all makes sense. Although to the mass production point, it’s my understanding that there are pharmaceutical companies that are beginning to produce massive quantities of the possible vaccines prior to completion of testing to expedite the process. We’re still a long way away, but hopefully that act can shave a few months off of the ordeal.
 
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