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Coronavirus !!! Very Political Thread !!!

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mako1331 said:
What will they be venturing out into after a year and three months of this, man?

One way or another, there’s no way we stay in this state for that long.
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Exactly- things will start easing back during May, IMO. Trump is itching to open things up and he'll give cover for the reopening. There will be restrictions in place wrt how many people can congregate in stores/restaurants etc, airlines will keep middle seats open etc. People want to get out and will start doing the calculus- if you are older or have pre-existing conditions, you'll likely want to stay in. If you are young/healthy, you do the math- 0.5% fatality rate among young/healthy, 50/50 chnace of getting it- ok I have a 1 in 400 chance of dying of this thing, many people will take those chances. Therapeutics also hopefully on the way this summer.
 
OK. New death projections are out from the University of Washington. High end has dropped down to 125,000. New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Florida account for almost 67,000 of those projected deaths - so roughly 1/2. Other states have some tough potential numbers but by and large the social distancing that the Northeast alerted us all into doing is having a significant impact on the projections for other parts of the country. There are some states where I don't get the projections relative to existing math. But I'm in no position to really speculate.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
I guess

but at some point, real economic activity like the exchange of money for goods and services needs to occur as well
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Yeah, maybe. You might want to own some gold in case they just decide to print money and drop it from a helicopter.
 
HoosierDeac said:
Exactly- things will start easing back during May, IMO. Trump is itching to open things up and he'll give cover for the reopening. There will be restrictions in place wrt how many people can congregate in stores/restaurants etc, airlines will keep middle seats open etc. People want to get out and will start doing the calculus- if you are older or have pre-existing conditions, you'll likely want to stay in. If you are young/healthy, you do the math- 0.5% fatality rate among young/healthy, 50/50 chnace of getting it- ok I have a 1 in 400 chance of dying of this thing, many people will take those chances. Therapeutics also hopefully on the way this summer.
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I dont see how the science will be anywhere robust enough to have people semi-confidentally go out in just a month or so. And frankly 1/400 ish chance to die still isnt good enough odds for me to go out and get a bloomin onion from outback. Im staying home as long as possible
 
JGDeac said:
Yeah, maybe. You might want to own some gold in case they just decide to print money and drop it from a helicopter.
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The gold/silver markets have been wild the past month. Silver dropped like 25%-30% on paper and gold dropped like 10%. Like the prices if you were invested in a gold or silver ETF. People think it's because most lost so much in the stock market they had to sell their paper gold and silver holdings to make their margin calls. But the prices to actually own the physical gold and silver went up at the same time, because everyone wanted to buy the physical stuff and all the dealers ran out. So there were just like huge spreads. Spot prices of silver went down to like around $12/oz, but if you wanted to buy the physical stuff, you'd have to pay closer to $19/oz, like a 30-60% spread. Just a month ago the spread was only about 3%. But then if you wanted to sell it, the dealers would only pay you the like $12-14/oz. I bought a bunch of physical gold and silver (not knowing what I was doing) a couple months ago, and was really annoyed as like the spot prices of what I just bought cratered, but the physical price had this huge spread. But now it seems to be recovering.

Still a hard market to gauge, you have the mines shut down so there's no new supply, however a big part of the demand is in jewelry which also you'd think would not be in demand. However, people also want it as a safe haven asset now that rates are 0% and the market is in turmoil.
 
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JuiceCrewAllStar said:
precious metals investing is just weird to me
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I did it not having any clue what I was doing, but generally feel like I'm a gambler who's likely to lose it all betting on stocks, so just put like 25% of my portfolio is "safe'ish" shit like that. Didn't want to lose it all on like whatever options trade I end up betting on. I bought when Silver dropped from $18/oz to $16.50/oz and thought I was getting it at a good price. It sucked when the spot price dropped to $12, but it's recovered fairly quickly, now is around $15.50, and I can probably break even given the physical spreads if I sold. Silver has industrial uses which may really slow down. Also the jewelry uses should really slow down. But the printing of the money should be good for it. As is the mines being closed and people naturally going for it as a safe haven. Hard to judge all those factors well. It could crater down again. Or go through the roof. I bought once I learned JP Morgan is hoarding more silver than anyone else at any point in time in history. I figure at some point they'll stop shorting it and let the price skyrocket.

Gold dropped a bit as well, but has gained now from where I got it. It really seems like the best place to sell all the shit is like craigslist or just meet someone you know who will buy it. If the dealers are charging a 30% markup, just find someone who wants it and sell it independently at a 20% markup and you're fine. As long as you can safely transact.

All in all, it seems like all the markets are just speculator driven and at some point or another go in some crazy period where it doubles or triples in value for a brief window, then sells off. I think my strategy is just to buy a little of everything, then just sell once those speculator bubbles happen. Silver was like $50/oz 40 years ago, at some point it will go up to that again, it just might take 20 years.
 
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DeacMan said:
OK. New death projections are out from the University of Washington. High end has dropped down to 125,000. New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Florida account for almost 67,000 of those projected deaths - so roughly 1/2. Other states have some tough potential numbers but by and large the social distancing that the Northeast alerted us all into doing is having a significant impact on the projections for other parts of the country. There are some states where I don't get the projections relative to existing math. But I'm in no position to really speculate.
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IHME projected mean deaths per thousand citizens - top 10 states:

Connecticut
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
New York
North Dakota (??) driven in part by small population, and according to their model they are currently above ICU bed capacity
New Jersey
Georgia
Kentucky
South Dakota (??) see North Dakota
Michigan

Louisiana and Florida are #'s 11 and 12

my working theory is that it's really hard to model projected deaths when you have numbers very close to zero currently, which is the case in the Dakotas.

I'm more concerned about Indiana, to name one medium-sized state, than IHME is
 
thatguy2016 said:
IHME projected mean deaths per thousand citizens - top 10 states:

Connecticut
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
New York
North Dakota (??) driven in part by small population, and according to their model they are currently above ICU bed capacity
New Jersey
Georgia
Kentucky
South Dakota (??) see North Dakota
Michigan

Louisiana and Florida are #'s 11 and 12

my working theory is that it's really hard to model projected deaths when you have numbers very close to zero currently, which is the case in the Dakotas.

I'm more concerned about Indiana, to name one medium-sized state, than IHME is
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I've been concerned about Indiana for a long time. They had a massive positive test percentage very early on.

NoDak has an older population. But that state is totally barren outside of Fargo and Grand Forks. And Fargo is basically a single metro with Moorhead just across the Red River (and I have to imagine Fargo has more ICU beds than Moorhead). What I worry about in all the smaller states is the virus making its way into assisted living homes.

In terms of deaths per capita, I can easily track that per the updated projections, but have not. Right now the actual worst per capita death rates are:

NY
NJ
LA
MI
CT
MA
WA
DC
RI
VT
IN
IL
GA
CO

I will say the projections can move very significantly very quickly. So the "small sample" size take you have given is spot on.
 
palmab03 said:
I did it not having any clue what I was doing, but generally feel like I'm a gambler who's likely to lose it all betting on stocks, so just put like 25% of my portfolio is "safe'ish" shit like that. Didn't want to lose it all on like whatever options trade I end up betting on. I bought when Silver dropped from $18/oz to $16.50/oz and thought I was getting it at a good price. It sucked when the spot price dropped to $12, but it's recovered fairly quickly, now is around $15.50, and I can probably break even given the physical spreads if I sold. Silver has industrial uses which may really slow down. Also the jewelry uses should really slow down. But the printing of the money should be good for it. As is the mines being closed and people naturally going for it as a safe haven. Hard to judge all those factors well. It could crater down again. Or go through the roof. I bought once I learned JP Morgan is hoarding more silver than anyone else at any point in time in history. I figure at some point they'll stop shorting it and let the price skyrocket.

Gold dropped a bit as well, but has gained now from where I got it. It really seems like the best place to sell all the shit is like craigslist or just meet someone you know who will buy it. If the dealers are charging a 30% markup, just find someone who wants it and sell it independently at a 20% markup and you're fine. As long as you can safely transact.

All in all, it seems like all the markets are just speculator driven and at some point or another go in some crazy period where it doubles or triples in value for a brief window, then sells off. I think my strategy is just to buy a little of everything, then just sell once those speculator bubbles happen. Silver was like $50/oz 40 years ago, at some point it will go up to that again, it just might take 20 years.
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yeah, the connection between "value" and value seems very flimsy
 
Yo plama, you don't have to answer this, but like, where do you keep your cache of gold and silver? In your apartment? In a safety deposit box? Under your mattress?

Is it coins or in bricks like Goldfinger was jacking from Fort Knox in the Bond film?
 
JGDeac said:
Yeah, maybe. You might want to own some gold in case they just decide to print money and drop it from a helicopter.
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If they decide to print money and drop it from a helicopter??? Not sure if in sarcasm but clearly that is already happening. When treasury has to issue the 3-5T in coming months and who knows how much more congress will spend over next 6 months that Fed will be buying 65-80% of it as no foreign countries will be buying as all will need to go on spending spree and investors are already seeing cracks in treasury market with huge bid/ask spreads never seen before until Fed again stepped in a few weeks ago and the huge repo move last oct when ST repos went from 2% to 10%. So yeah gold and silver is good move as US $ will soon start to crater as you can’t just create $ and hope no one notices u are turning your $ into Monopoly money.
 
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