My expectations for Manning from the beginning were:
Years 1 and 2: Stabilize the program, rebuild recruiting relationships, get your staff and system in place, show some glimmers of hope.
Years 3 and 4: Return to competitiveness, move safely back into the top 100, win some big recruiting battles, improve the talent all the way to the end of the bench, make an NCAA tourney, return to relevance.
Year 5 onward: begin a stretch similar to the mid-90s and early 2000s, make the tourney every year, get a couple top 4 seeds, contend for at least one ACC and national championships.
Unless we finish the season very strong (getting to 15 wins and mid to low 70s in Kenpom) he will have come up a little short of the Year 3-4 expectations. I think the likely explanation for that was whiffing on the 2016 class compounded by early departures that were unexpected at the time the 2016 class was being recruited. Manning deserves a good deal of blame for that.