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Decision Analysis: 1st and Goal at WFU 1, Down 3, 0:29 Left

The 2 points in that situaion is almost irrelevant. Kicking from the twenty pretty much ends the game short of a return td
 
deacvision7 said:
Yeah, I just don't agree. Punt deep and to the sideline.

Don't back yourself up to the endzone and then take a safety.
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Why are you so worried about going from a 3 point lead to a 1 point lead when the safety consession is happening with approx :10 left. The 25 yards of field position seem well worth it.

I wonder what Clawson would have done if Colburn just got tackled. I would guess he would have taken the safety, but we will never know.
 
What is the difference between a 3 point lead and a 1 point lead? Plenty.
 
ChrisL68 said:
The 2 points in that situaion is almost irrelevant. Kicking from the twenty pretty much ends the game short of a return td
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A return which is set up for maximum blockage for a big gain. And not where they have to send 9/10 to try and block the punt meaning nobody is set up to block for the returner.
 
If you take the safety, though, giving up a field goal is basically impossible, so they're functionally the same lead.
 
Of course they can block the punt also. I would say the odds of disaster happening are much higher kicking out of your end zone
 
RedSoxFaithful said:
If you take the safety, though, giving up a field goal is basically impossible, so they're functionally the same lead.
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Right, I don't think there are too many situations in which you get a FG kicked against you kicking off from your own 20 yard line with 0:10 left. With the opposition with 0 timeouts, and they can't spike the ball under 0:03.

It basically would involve a very fast return down to the 20-25 yard line and a FG the next play. Which is way less likely than a bad result on a punt from your endzone.
 
I'm also a guy that would never foul when up 3 in basketball.
 
Here's the only thing we're sure about. Had we not lost the fumble Clawson would have either punted or taken the safety on fourth down.

Either way we would have won the game.

Whichever Clawson chose the guy that starts these stats modeling probability threads by assigning ridiculous outcome probabilities to support his theory that our coach was wrong by a couple percent or more would have assigned ridiculous outcome probabilities to support his theory that the coach was wrong.

As an example if our coach would have punted we would have come up with something that said we were 98 percent sure to win by taking the safety and only 94 percent by punting.

He would ask challenge anyone to assign their own probabilities to prove him wrong and if anyone did that he would say their outcome probabilities were unreasonable.

If anyone suggested that Clawson made the right choice based on the outcome he would have discarded the evidence.
 
I like coach Clawson. I think he is doing a good job. I just enjoy talking football strategy, and it is a Wake Forest board, so I like to talk about the strategies our coach uses. It's not really a personal attack against our coach or our kids.

I mean I'm not going to create a thread when Tommy Tubberville bothches a decision in the AAC Wednesday night game of the week
 
RedSoxFaithful said:
If you take the safety, though, giving up a field goal is basically impossible, so they're functionally the same lead.
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They could fair catch the punt from the end zone they are about to get from us and try a ridiculously long unencumbered field goal if somehow Mate had kicked it short. They might even be able to do that on the free kick after the safety, I am not sure?
 
Even an equivalent 35 yard punt from a free kick would be fielded at your own 30.
 
FckVwls said:
I like coach Clawson. I think he is doing a good job. I just enjoy talking football strategy, and it is a Wake Forest board, so I like to talk about the strategies our coach uses. It's not really a personal attack against our coach or our kids.

I mean I'm not going to create a thread when Tommy Tubberville bothches a decision in the AAC Wednesday night game of the week
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don't let him fool you ... he will assign his outcome probability percentages but if anyone counters with their own he will deem them as unreasonable.
 
deacvision7 said:
Don't free kicks happen from the 20 yard line? 35 yards from there is the opposition's 45, right?
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yes they would be attempting a 65 yard field goal.

We almost lost our high school game Friday that way. Tie game so we couldn't take the safety and so we punted from our 10 to our 47 with ten seconds left (37 yard punt .. which is decent). They fair caught the punt at our 47 and tried a 57 yard field goal.

They're allowed to kick it with no pass rush and with a full run-up and so on ... like a kick-off. I figured The kid would make it, had already made a 53 yarder in the game, and from the same high school that produced Catazaro (pardon the spelling) who went on to Clemson and now with the Cardinals.

Fortunately it was about five yards short and we won in overtime.
 
Punters usually catch the ball 15 behind the line and hit the punt 10 behind the line. So the free kick equivalent of a 35 yard punt would go to the opposition 35
 
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