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Do you vote for Trump?

simosfrostyone said:
I can help you with this. No one is a clear leader until the primary votes have been cast. Most poll respondents are almost certainly not GOP primary voters. Many may not be GOP or registered voters at all. For example, right now Cruz is running away from Trump in the polls that do reflect Iowa primary voters' sentiments. If Trump is crushed in Iowa, his aura could dim pretty quickly. I know Dems enjoy trying to tar the GOP with Trump, but you are getting way ahead of yourselves.
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I don't mean this to be condescending but what do you mean "[m]ost poll respondents are almost certainly not GOP primary voters?" You think people answering these questions are lying about being GOP primary voters? Polls use either "registered voters," "voters," or "likely voters" in their sampling and cross-section for voters in each party.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Hillary seems pretty confident about going up against Trump, but that's a mistake. HRC is thoroughly unpleasant and damaged goods (as is Trump), but Cruz won't say the same things about Lewinsky and Bubba that Trump will. Hillary has a temper and will respond poorly. Cruz is a weasel and HRC can make him look bad based on his record. HRC should prefer Carson or Cruz in a general election over Trump.
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This would make Hillary a hugely sympathetic character. This is 2015 - you can't bash women for their personal relationships and get away with it anymore.
 
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simosfrostyone said:
I can help you with this. No one is a clear leader until the primary votes have been cast. Most poll respondents are almost certainly not GOP primary voters. Many may not be GOP or registered voters at all. For example, right now Cruz is running away from Trump in the polls that do reflect Iowa primary voters' sentiments. If Trump is crushed in Iowa, his aura could dim pretty quickly. I know Dems enjoy trying to tar the GOP with Trump, but you are getting way ahead of yourselves.
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Iowa barely matters any more. The last two Republican winners were Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum. Hell McCain finished FOURTH in 2008
 
There isn't any real precedence for Trump, so I take any cocksure prediction with a grain of salt. Mostly I'm just sad.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
I don't mean this to be condescending but what do you mean "[m]ost poll respondents are almost certainly not GOP primary voters?" You think people answering these questions are lying about being GOP primary voters? Polls use either "registered voters," "voters," or "likely voters" in their sampling and cross-section for voters in each party.
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Don't worry about being condescending.
 
Aren't GOP voters concerned that their fellow GOP voters are bat-shit crazy? Can't help attract non-raciost new voters.
 
simosfrostyone said:
I can help you with this. No one is a clear leader until the primary votes have been cast. Most poll respondents are almost certainly not GOP primary voters. Many may not be GOP or registered voters at all. For example, right now Cruz is running away from Trump in the polls that do reflect Iowa primary voters' sentiments. If Trump is crushed in Iowa, his aura could dim pretty quickly. I know Dems enjoy trying to tar the GOP with Trump, but you are getting way ahead of yourselves.
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A new national poll:

"According to the survey of registered Republican voters, 28 percent support Mr. Trump, while 24 percent back Mr. Cruz. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Trailing Mr. Trump and Mr. Cruz are Senator Marco Rubio and Ben Carson at 12 percent and 10 percent. The rest of the pack is languishing in the single digits."

1. Trump at 28% - he's crazy

2. Cruz at 24%

3. Rubio at 12%

4. Carson at 10% - he's crazy

So 38% of the registered GOP voters support Trump and Carson. And aren't Cruz and Rubio teabaggers that want to shut down the government? So another 36% support the teabagger movement.
 
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Ball State Deac said:
A new national poll:

"According to the survey of registered Republican voters, 28 percent support Mr. Trump, while 24 percent back Mr. Cruz. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Trailing Mr. Trump and Mr. Cruz are Senator Marco Rubio and Ben Carson at 12 percent and 10 percent. The rest of the pack is languishing in the single digits."

1. Trump at 28% - he's crazy

2. Cruz at 24% - also crazy

3. Rubio at 12%

4. Carson at 10% - he's crazy

So 38% of the registered GOP voters support Trump and Carson. And aren't Cruz and Rubio teabaggers that want to shut down the government? So another 36% support the teabagger movement.
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FIFY
 
Are the polls conducted on anything other than land lines?
 
Deacon923 said:
Here is a long read from David Frum about Trump and the disconnect between the GOP base and the GOP elite. Presented for general interest reading not as an endorsement of conclusions, as I have no clue what is going with the Trump phenomenon or where it's going.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-great-republican-revolt/419118/
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Thanks for posting. I'm not a Frum fan, but I think he's right on in his analysis of the tea baggers and Trump supporters.
 
simosfrostyone said:
That is one of the problems with them.
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I guess, although if anything, it seems like that would overrepresent likely voters rather than underrepresent them. Only olds, who are more likely to vote, have landlines
 
KitchinDeac said:
I have voted for the Republican candidate in every Presidential election since 1996. If Trump is the nominee, I will be voting for the Democratic candidate. Trump has absolutely no chance in the general election.
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I have voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 1996....but if Hillary is the nominee, I will be voting for someone else.

Looks like Montgomery Brewster should run.
 
MysteryMen said:
I guess, although if anything, it seems like that would overrepresent likely voters rather than underrepresent them. Only olds, who are more likely to vote, have landlines
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Right, which, if it's true they poll on landlines, they're missing out on the younger segment of the party that almost assuredly won't vote for trump.
 
DeaconCav06 said:
Are the polls conducted on anything other than land lines?
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The one I posted above had 80% landlines and 20% non-landlines. This is a valid critique though.

We learned in the first two weeks of my quantitative analysis class for poli sci how to conduct polling properly for likely or registered voters cross-sectioned for party affiliation so I'm pretty sure that pollsters who do it for a living know what they're doing on that front. I don't believe a particularly valid critique of most of these polls are "these people aren't actually voting Republicans." At all.
 
Deacon923 said:
Here is a long read from David Frum about Trump and the disconnect between the GOP base and the GOP elite. Presented for general interest reading not as an endorsement of conclusions, as I have no clue what is going with the Trump phenomenon or where it's going.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-great-republican-revolt/419118/
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longstoryshort, boomer white people are conflicted because they sure as FUCK are not giving up one iota of SS or Medicare
 
Trump consistently polls higher in online or robocall polls than he does in live calls with pollsters. Indicates a reverse Bradley effect in that people are embarrassed to tell pollsters they will vote for Trump. May indicate Trump poll numbers are lower than they should be.
 
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