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How long will it take Wake Basketball to be relevant again?

Based purely on kenpom, here's the probability distribution (not cumulative) for our ACC wins:

Code: 
Wins	Probability
0	0.71%
1	4.10%
2	11.15%
3	18.89%
4	22.27%
5	19.40%
6	12.90%
7	6.69%
8	2.73%
9	0.88%
10	0.22%
11	0.04%
12	0.01%
13	0.00%
14	0.00%
15	0.00%
16	0.00%
 
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WakeForestRanger said:
This team is not capable of winning 6 ACC games this year. At best, we might win three. BC, GT and Clemson all at home and that's a stretch.
Click to expand...

Ok, then I'm sure you'd like to double up on the wager I have on the Jaybone thread with 3 ACC wins being a push.

You sound extremely confident.
 
We beat Nebraska on the road and High Point and both are better than BC.

With CJ we are a much better team. Chase gets more open looks and doesn't have to create and the ball isn't in TC's hands as much.
 
ChrisL68 said:
We beat Nebraska on the road and High Point and both are better than BC.

With CJ we are a much better team. Chase gets more open looks and doesn't have to create and the ball isn't in TC's hands as much.
Click to expand...

That BC game is a noon Saturday game after we get destroyed on Thursday night at Cameron. Thin bench with two days rest, long flight, after emotionally devastating loss to one of our arch rivals? Magic eight ball says we lose and boards melt down.
 
If you were a better than average basketball player who had options, would you EVER elect to play for Bzzz (outside of someone with a lifelong devotion to WFU)?

The longer Bzzz is onboard, the deeper the hole we're in. The quickest formula to get back to success involves the shortest time possible with Bzzz.
 
IAppreciateIt said:
Based purely on kenpom, here's the probability distribution (not cumulative) for our ACC wins:

Code: 
Wins	Probability
0	0.71%
1	4.10%
2	11.15%
3	18.89%
4	22.27%
5	19.40%
6	12.90%
7	6.69%
8	2.73%
9	0.88%
10	0.22%
11	0.04%
12	0.01%
13	0.00%
14	0.00%
15	0.00%
16	0.00%
Click to expand...

That's interesting. Do you have last year's for ACC wins?
 
WakeForestRanger said:
That BC game is a noon Saturday game after we get destroyed on Thursday night at Cameron. Thin bench with two days rest, long flight, after emotionally devastating loss to one of our arch rivals? Magic eight ball says we lose and boards melt down.
Click to expand...

I think you are overstating the impact of the Duke game. It's a game that the whole team has expected to lose all year, they will all probably be disinterested by halftime, with the exception of McKie and CJ. The team will probably be more hyped up for the BC game because it's a chance to prove they can win in the ACC, and it will actually be competitive.
 
ProfessorDeac said:
That's interesting. Do you have last year's for ACC wins?
Click to expand...

This isn't a perfect comparison because the ratings were adjusted as the season went on (instead of using the ratings before ACC play), but it should be pretty similar measure:

Code: 
Wins	Probability
0	14.59%
1	29.85%
2	28.61%
3	17.07%
4	7.09%
5	2.17%
6	0.51%
7	0.09%
8	0.01%
9	0.00%
10	0.00%
11	0.00%
12	0.00%
13	0.00%
14	0.00%
15	0.00%
16	0.00%
 
WakeForestRanger said:
That BC game is a noon Saturday game after we get destroyed on Thursday night at Cameron. Thin bench with two days rest, long flight, after emotionally devastating loss to one of our arch rivals? Magic eight ball says we lose and boards melt down.
Click to expand...

That's similar to the situation UVa was in when we beat them last year.

The players are going to get hyped to play Duke in Cameron no matter what. If they're more hyped to play at BC than at Cameron, that's just sad.
 
Even if you dismiss the mental effect on the team of the Duke game and I'm not sure why you would. That short turn around is going to kill a team with a bench as short as ours. Wouldn't surprise me, if CJ gets reinjured that week because he will be logging a lot of minutes.
 
Well then maybe we should play with walk-ons at Duke. Why not? Our chance of winning goes from 0% to 0%. Rest up our scholarship players to win at BC. Light a fire under them, i.e., "you'll play at Cameron when you've demonstrated you have a chance of winning."

/things that make sense in a vacuum
 
ProfessorDeac said:
Well then maybe we should play with walk-ons at Duke. Why not? Our chance of winning goes from 0% to 0%. Rest up our scholarship players to win at BC. Light a fire under them, i.e., "you'll play at Cameron when you've demonstrated you deserve to play for a Division I team."

/things that make sense in a vacuum
Click to expand...

FIFY
 
cville deac said:
To answer the question, I think it at least partially depends on when Bz is fired. If he's fired after this season (which is extremely doubtful to happen), the recovery time could be fairly quick if we hired the right coach. We have a big and solid class coming in next year. No burger boys but solid. Keep those guys and sign a couple of real good players in 2013, and I think we'd be well on our way to relevancy. Especially in a down ACC - when Leonard Hamilton is your 3rd-5th best coach, you have a problem as a conference.

But the longer Bz sticks around winning 10-12 games per year, the more difficult it will become. He'll be viewed as dead man walking by recruits and it'll be increasingly hard to duplicate his 2012 recruiting in 2013-14. Then it really could be several years to achieve relevance.
Click to expand...

+1
 
DCDeac said:
I'd bet we win 15 this year, 19 next year to the NIT, then an NCAA trip as a mid seed when Travis is a senior.

If we can get even one great player in the next recruiting class, whether it's a scoring guard or a big man, we'd be a 4 seed or better the following year. If [Redacted] loses the momentum of next year's class and we don't see improvement, I think a big time coach would see us as a very attractive job as opposed to the disaster that awaited Bzz.

The good news is that if we don't have any postseason success during the [Redacted] rebuild after year 4, Wellman can use the exact same reason to fire him and move on that he used with Dino. And at that point, just as quickly as we fell apart under poor coaching and recruiting since 2010, we could be one player and some good leadership away from being back into the top 20 the very next year.
Click to expand...

HELL NO!!! Dino got 3 years but Buzz gets four? Even Wellman can't be that big of an idiot!
 
Jeff [Redacted] is a much better coach than Dino Gaudio.

Nobody that knows basketball will tell you differently.
 
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