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How Many Wins for 2016 Wake Football?

How Many Wins for 2016 Wake Football?

  • Total voters
    188
I think that there are things that you can objectively point at that Wake will be better at this year than last year, especially on offense. I expect a drop-off in the linebacking corps, but the line and secondary should remain about the same. How would most categorize each position if you had to say: "better than last year, "same as last year", "worse than last year"?
 
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Also, I get that coaches blow smoke all the time, but I whole-heartedly believe Dave Clawson and what he says in his pressers, especially the one yesterday. He is brutally honest with what he says.

He has also told a lot of people that he expects a bowl, and that "we are going to a bowl". He has built these programs before, and I fully believe that he knows what he is talking about.
 
Lohengrin said:
I love Clawson's attitude and energy too, but in reality one must look at the product on the field. There is just no evidence that we'll be appreciably better than last year.
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This is a little overly sillily pessimistic. Even if the scoreboard didn't always perfectly reflect it we were competitive in games with good teams (narrowly lost to FSU/Louisville, outgained ND despite giving up basically a 100 yd TD), and we return so, so much this year, and while last year's sched featured a tough home slate, this year's couldn't be more favorable.

So that's three reasons right there, and I could go on
 
Current poll results:

71 votes of 5 or less.
71 votes of 6 or more.

OGBoards feels like there's a 50-50 shot at WFU Football going bowling at this point.
 
I want to hear why people think 6 wins isn't attainable.

Our schedule this year is worth at least a win or two more. That puts us at 4 or 5 wins. Then we should improve in nearly every sector of the football field. Punting, and linebacking corps are the two big question marks at this point.

On offense we return almost everybody, and added a lot of depth and talent from stars/recruiting standpoint. The offense will almost certainly be better than last year, but how much I cannot say for sure.

On defense:

Line- About the same, return a ton of starters.
Linebacking- Would expect a drop with the losses of Williams and Chubb
Secondary- Return everybody/should be at least the same, if not better, especially with the reports of Glenn and Bates at the safety spots.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I want to hear why people think 6 wins isn't attainable.

Our schedule this year is worth at least a win or two more. That puts us at 4 or 5 wins. Then we should improve in nearly every sector of the football field. Punting, and linebacking corps are the two big question marks at this point.

On offense we return almost everybody, and added a lot of depth and talent from stars/recruiting standpoint. The offense will almost certainly be better than last year, but how much I cannot say for sure.

On defense:

Line- About the same, return a ton of starters.
Linebacking- Would expect a drop with the losses of Williams and Chubb
Secondary- Return everybody/should be at least the same, if not better, especially with the reports of Glenn and Bates at the safety spots.
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So how much better does a program have to be to go from two conference wins over two years to bowl eligible? Our offense could make massive improvements over last year and still suck balls. And I don't see much reason to think we'll improve much. I'm seeing maybe 4 wins. Six and Clawson deserves an extension.
 
Turd Ferguson said:
So how much better does a program have to be to go from two conference wins over two years to bowl eligible? Our offense could make massive improvements over last year and still suck balls. And I don't see much reason to think we'll improve much. I'm seeing maybe 4 wins. Six and Clawson deserves an extension.
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Why do you think this? You don't have faith in Clawson? You don't think the talent is there? You think the ACC will be as improved as we are going to be?

I want to hear why people think we won't improve when we return almost 100% of the productivity on offense, and a ton on defense as well.
 
The previous season's won-loss record is the most popular predictor of the next season's performance, but it also is among the worst
 
Wake returns the 9th most production in the country from last year, and that projects to translate into a +6.7 PPG change.

It does bear noting that two teams we play (Cuse/Louisville) are above us in that metric.

Chart in the link below:

http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...-experience-lsu-ohio-state-tennessee-stanford

With a couple years of data, here are the correlations between a percentage returning category and change in Off. S&P+ (the higher, the more correlated returning experience is with production):

Receiving yards returning: 0.285
Passing yards returning: 0.264
Rushing yards returning: 0.079
Career offensive line starts returning: 0.015
And here are the correlations between some returnee categories and Def. S&P+:

Passes broken up returning (overall): -0.440
Passes broken up returning (DBs): -0.404
Tackles returning (overall): -0.388
Tackles returning (DBs): -0.378
Sacks returning (DLs): -0.194
Passes broken up returning (DLs): -0.161
Tackles returning (LBs): -0.161
Click to expand...
 
The schedule gets a lot of play but aside from 3 games, we play teams as good or a little better than us or teams clearly much better than us. It's not an easy schedule for Wake.

Expecting us to beat every team we should beat and steal one or two is expecting a lot for a team that hasn't lived up to low expectations yet.
 
BDL said:
Returning an entire shitty team doesn't mean the team will be much better. Might just be an older, shitty team.
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Why does Connelly include retuning production in his preseason model if it's not predictive?

Or do you just mean there are outliers in every model and you feel that Wake is consistently that outlier?
 
PhDeac said:
The schedule gets a lot of play but aside from 3 games, we play teams as good or a little better than us or teams clearly much better than us. It's not an easy schedule for Wake.

Expecting us to beat every team we should beat and steal one or two is expecting a lot for a team that hasn't lived up to low expectations yet.
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Sure, there is obviously a difference in "easy schedule overall", and "easy schedule for Wake". By this logic Wake will never have an easy schedule.
 
But what matters is if it's an easy schedule for Wake. The program isn't where it needs to be to claim that.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Why does Connelly include retuning production in his preseason model if it's not predictive?

Or do you just mean there are outliers in every model and you feel that Wake is consistently that outlier?
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The team sucked last year. There was no production. It's sad that we have all those guys back.
 
Phil Steele also hammers returning starters and he has a better-than-decent track record in terms of predicting. It's proven time and again to be a very important factor
 
Everybody go through each game and apply a percentage likelihood that we win each game and post it.

Here is mine:

Tulane 85%
@ Duke 25%
Delaware 99%
@ Indiana 25%
@ NC State 20%
Syracuse 55%
@ Florida State 1%
Army 95%
Virginia 65%
@ Louisville 10%
Clemson 10%
Boston College 60%

I got right at 5.5 wins with just gut-instinct guesses.

Tulane may be a little low and Army a little high, but they probably balance out. Not sure what to expect for Tulane, but we get Army after a bye, and it's not a novelty offense to us anymore. Could argue Clemson should be lower, but even if we are at 0% for both Clemson and FSU, that's 5.39 wins.
 
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