I’ll bet my right to post on this message board that Wake makes the NCAAT in 2019.

[knowell]

It's a dumb bet to make or take. There is nothing to gain if you are right but something to lose if you are wrong. I don't gain anything if Rchild is banned from the board. I much prefer arguing with him than just posting with people that agree with me. Hell, I even miss that crazy old bastard that banned himself because Wake went to a bowl game.

I also don't bet against my team. It's hard enough to root for Wake these days. I don't need to add a reason to pull against my team.

 

[RChildress107]

It's a dumb bet to make or take. There is nothing to gain if you are right but something to lose if you are wrong. I don't gain anything if Rchild is banned from the board. I much prefer arguing with him than just posting with people that agree with me. Hell, I even miss that crazy old bastard that banned himself because Wake went to a bowl game.

I also don't bet against my team. It's hard enough to root for Wake these days. I don't need to add a reason to pull against my team.

That’s a fair take. But most people seem so sure that they are right what actually do they have to lose.

 

[RChildress107]

6-7 ACC teams will have top 8 seeds this year. Not good enough



why are you obsessed with winning in year one? we're way past year one for Manning...hopefully we'll have a winning conference record in year 5. Maybe we'll get to play Pitt and GT twice each

I’m not obsessed with ACC conference record, period. Just proving a point that there is a step between losing by 15 a game and winning, and Manning has taken that step. You objected to that point with the assertion that there were a bunch of coaches that skipped that step.

 

[RChildress107]

I also love the hedge of “I’m absolutely convinced that Manning isn’t the right coach to turn the program around and making the tournament two out of three years including a top 8 seed (a.k.a. turning the program around) won’t convince me otherwise.”

 

[RChildress107]

And to be clear, sneaking into the last 8 seed isn’t going to convince me for certain that Manning is a long term solution. He probably needs a top 5-6 seed and a strong 2019 class to do that.

 

[thatguy2016]

And to be clear, sneaking into the last 8 seed isn’t going to convince me for certain that Manning is a long term solution. He probably needs a top 5-6 seed and a strong 2019 class to do that.

but you just said 3 minutes previously that sneaking into the tournament as an 8 seed is by definition turning the program around

 

[RChildress107]

but you just said 3 minutes previously that sneaking into the tournament as an 8 seed is by definition turning the program around

It is. I have higher aspirations for Wake basketball, and higher expectations for Manning moving forward, than simply turning the program around.

 

[Deaconblue]

And to be clear, sneaking into the last 8 seed isn’t going to convince me for certain that Manning is a long term solution. He probably needs a top 5-6 seed and a strong 2019 class to do that.

Being the last #8 seed isn't "sneaking into" the NCAA tournament. Teams that are seeded 8 and better are solidly in, not in the discussion of bubble teams, last four in, first four out. Wake last year, as an 11 seed play in, just sneaked in.

The last #8 seed is nominally the 32nd best team in the nation, almost certainly getting votes in top 25 polls. It would almost certainly mean a middle third (6-10) finish in the ACC.

 

[thatguy2016]

It is. I have higher aspirations for Wake basketball, and higher expectations for Manning moving forward, than simply turning the program around.

I have a higher definition for "turning things around" than you do

 

[RChildress107]

I have a higher definition for "turning things around" than you do

Or maybe you don’t understand what turning around means. Technically he has already turned things around and then some. I gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed you meant “return things to normal”.

2 top 40 teams in 3 years counts as returning things to normal.

 

[thatguy2016]

Or maybe you don’t understand what turning around means. Technically he has already turned things around and then some. I gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed you meant “return things to normal”.

2 top 40 teams in 3 years counts as returning things to normal.

oh heaven's yes, we've turned it around !!

20-51 vs. 17-51 for his predecessor

 

[Deaconblue]

Progress isn't always linear. Sometimes it is two steps forward, one step back. Everyone would like Wake's progress to be a skyrocket rise to ACC and NCAA dominance. That isn't going to happen.

It's pretty rare to need to replace a 3* recruit after 2 years. That means the coaching staff would need to be identifying potential replacements before he even arrives on campus. That is usually reserved for the 5* players.

Washington and probably Key leaving, but letting Danny know now is helpful. The "regular signing date" for fall 2018 entrants is April 11, 2018 - still over 5 weeks away. The pool of remaining top 100 recruits is small, but it is not empty. Let's see what plays out over the next month plus.

Danny Manning brings a cachet to the recruiting trail that very few college coaches can. You can't buy the "Danny and the Miracles" story anywhere except with Danny Manning. He gets into living rooms that another coach at Wake probably wouldn't.

Add Doral Moore to the big man develops list and recruiting should pick up.

It would be good if he would take advantage of the next opening on his bench to get a good game manager former head coach to join him and help clean that stuff up.

Another puzzlement is guard development. Great point guards in particular used to come from Wake regularly. Guys who were all ACC, and NBA players. Take a look at the rafters and the Wake Forest athletic Hall of Fame. Good bigs like to play with good point guards who can get them the ball, just like good guards like to play with good bigs who can finish once they have been fed.

 

[RChildress107]

Being the last #8 seed isn't "sneaking into" the NCAA tournament. Teams that are seeded 8 and better are solidly in, not in the discussion of bubble teams, last four in, first four out. Wake last year, as an 11 seed play in, just sneaked in.

The last #8 seed is nominally the 32nd best team in the nation, almost certainly getting votes in top 25 polls. It would almost certainly mean a middle third (6-10) finish in the ACC.

Yeah poor terminology on my part. That borderline top 25 area is enough to satisfy my mid term expectations for Manning but not necessarily enough to convince me he will build and sustain that success in years 6-10. It will depend a lot on how the 2019 class ends up.

 

[RacerDeac]

Another puzzlement is guard development. Great point guards in particular used to come from Wake regularly. Guys who were all ACC, and NBA players. Take a look at the rafters and the Wake Forest athletic Hall of Fame. Good bigs like to play with good point guards who can get them the ball, just like good guards like to play with good bigs who can finish once they have been fed.

Childress is the unfirable elephant in the room that Wellman forced onto [name redacted]'s staff as a human shield. Amazing player, responsible for my best WF basketball memories, but in over his head as coach.

 

[RChildress107]

oh heaven's yes, we've turned it around !!

20-51 vs. 17-51 for his predecessor

Why are you obsessed with winning in year 1??????


It’s really hard to take seriously anyone who references Year 1 or 2 under Manning.

I’m not sure why it’s some sort of shock to people that Manning’s record while building the program back up looks similar to [Redacted]’s record while tearing the program down.

 

[thatguy2016]

Why are you obsessed with winning in year 1??????


It’s really hard to take seriously anyone who references Year 1 or 2 under Manning.

I’m not sure why it’s some sort of shock to people that Manning’s record while building the program back up looks similar to [Redacted]’s record while tearing the program down.

who's obsessed with year 1??

fine, let's look at year 4

or years 3-4

4-13 vs. 6-12
13-22 vs. 12-24

oh heavens yes !!

 

[knowell]

who's obsessed with year 1??

fine, let's look at year 4

or years 3-4

4-13 vs. 6-12
13-22 vs. 12-24

oh heavens yes !!

You are still doing it wrong. Years 1 & 2 don't count.

Year 3 counts for sure.

Year 4 - year 4 was the exception that proves the rule.

year 5 - Sweet 16 for sure.

 

[RChildress107]

who's obsessed with year 1??

fine, let's look at year 4

or years 3-4

4-13 vs. 6-12
13-22 vs. 12-24

oh heavens yes !!

Why are you obsessed with half the season and comparing uneven schedules. And again why are you expecting the road on the way back up to look any different than the road on the way down. Turning around a program implies you are going to suck at the beginning. How long depends on the skill of the coach and the difficulty of the turnaround.

Manning could have gone 0-18 the first two years and I wouldn’t care. He went 19-11 (9-9) and finished #36. He deserves credit for that. He deserves blame for this season. He doesn’t deserve to have both of those lumped into some cherry picked stat devoid of context in an attempt to compare him to [Redacted].

 

[RChildress107]

You are still doing it wrong. Years 1 & 2 don't count.

Year 3 counts for sure.

Year 4 - year 4 was the exception that proves the rule.

year 5 - Sweet 16 for sure.

Correct until year 4: it counts and it sucked. I’ve never said differently, no matter how much y’all would like me to.

Year 5: Top 8 seed is the minimum to meet expectations.

 

[knowell]

Correct until year 4: it counts and it sucked. I’ve never said differently, no matter how much y’all would like me to.

Year 5: Top 8 seed is the minimum to meet expectations.

If Wake makes top 8 seed next year I will be truly impressed. I give it a less than 10% chance based on what I have seen. I think it would take an amazing confluence of circumstances to make that happen.

We shall see. I hope you are right but I think it is less than 1/4 of a long shot to happen.