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Investment Thread - For all your money needs

DeacsATS said:
In terms of what those charts (or similar ones I've seen) mean for the broader economy, I think it shows there is a lag that happens when thing start to contract. Savings were built up when things were good (and even during the pandemic), but now those personal savings are being depleted and a lot of folks are back to living paycheck to paycheck without much of a cushion to depend on.

Throw in inflation and supply chain issues (and all kinds of other variables) and it is easy to understand why it is so difficult to forecast economic growth.

I still tend to feel pretty negative... But maybe there is some comfort to be taken from the fact that things haven't fallen apart yet.
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This is the kicker for me.

I don't want to get a reputation as a doom-sayer. I was optimistic about the bull market until it completely decoupled from reality.

I knew that savings would be depleted - with inflation at 8%+, it has to deplete. My issue is how quickly it's depleting. It would have been fine to be where we are in July of next year.

However, we're getting too many trains on the tracks - layoffs are still just getting started from the Fed's interest rate hikes. We STILL haven't seen a recovery in the low-end-job sector (fast food still can't hire enough workers).

I had thought that the market was fairly oversold, but if debt is climbing this fast and the job market is still on life support, we're setting things up for a loop of decline.

It's ok if interest rates rise to prevent inflation.

It's ok if we have trouble hiring entry level positions.

It's ok if the individual debt burden goes up (even parabolic).

It's ok if we have widespread white-collar layoffs.

It's ok if we tank individual savings.

It's ok when we increase the national debt.

But it's not ok if all of these things happen at once (or nearly simultaneous). This is how you undermine faith in the financial system.

If holiday shopping numbers come back bad initially, we will see some brutal runs. If it happens, I think we start to spiral and I think it takes five years to a decade to recover from it.
 
a couple things that are crazy:

- we're lamenting the lack of people taking jobs that don't pay them enough to pay their bills

- we're using christmas shopping as a litmus test for economic health
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
a couple things that are crazy:

- we're lamenting the lack of people taking jobs that don't pay them enough to pay their bills

- we're using christmas shopping as a litmus test for economic health
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This line of thinking is just bananas to me. We live in a society where you can get free food and nearly free housing. As long as you don't work at fast food. Like, what the actual fuck. In 1920-1950, you'd just fucking starve to death with that work ethic.
 
Donkey Deac Doug said:
This line of thinking is just bananas to me. We live in a society where you can get free food and nearly free housing. As long as you don't work at fast food. Like, what the actual fuck. In 1920-1950, you'd just fucking starve to death with that work ethic.
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And yet you expect your burger to arrive.

One of jh’s favorite ideas - shouldnt everyone just be a CEO if they need more money?
 
Donkey Deac Doug said:
This line of thinking is just bananas to me. We live in a society where you can get free food and nearly free housing. As long as you don't work at fast food. Like, what the actual fuck. In 1920-1950, you'd just fucking starve to death with that work ethic.
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huh?
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
a couple things that are crazy:

- we're lamenting the lack of people taking jobs that don't pay them enough to pay their bills

- we're using christmas shopping as a litmus test for economic health
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Both fair.

I'll pass on the first point because I think that is a super complicated discussion even though it is a very real problem.

In terms of holiday spend, however, I think you have to use it as a litmus test. It is something measurable that you can compare to past years. And it is HUGELY important to a number of different segments of the overall economy. There are some consumer companies that only make money in the 4th quarter due to increased holiday spending.

But yeah, it is only one piece of information in a broader puzzle.
 
BeachBumDeac said:
huh?
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The housing choice voucher program is the federal government's major program for assisting very low-income families, the elderly, and the disabled to afford decent, safe, and sanitary housing in the private market. Since housing assistance is provided on behalf of the family or individual, participants are able to find their own housing, including single-family homes, townhouses and apartments.

The participant is free to choose any housing that meets the requirements of the program and is not limited to units located in subsidized housing projects.
 
I am aware of Section 8. I am also aware that it takes some people years to get approved for Section 8 and then more years before they can find housing that is eligible for Section 8 funding.
 
Lol at portraying PHA's as some kind of simple, readily available provider of "nearly free" housing. Over 5 years here with nearly 75% of families eligible for "nearly free housing" getting zero assistance.
 
DCDeac said:
Lol at portraying PHA's as some kind of simple, readily available provider of "nearly free" housing. Over 5 years here with nearly 75% of families eligible for "nearly free housing" getting zero assistance.
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I just know what I see. Over 90% of my clients have a connection to Section 8 housing. Either their mom or the mother of one or more of their children.
 
I have helped 2 elderly friends on disability through the section 8 housing process in Winston Salem. 1 was very fortunate to only wait a month for an opening. The other took almost a year for qualified housing to become available. It's a mixed bag. Yes, it IS "nearly free" once you get approved for a voucher, but let's not pretend those vouchers or the housing they afford are easy to come by.
 
Donkey Deac Doug said:
More relevant is the cooling forecast.
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I take it more as... Let's give things some time to breathe in order to see if we've really tamed inflation, or if we need to turn this mf'er up to 11.

A part of the Fed has to be like, "We've done some of the most aggressive rate hikes in history and not much has changed... WTF?"

Agree with Powell that there is a lag. Personally, I think high inflation is going to be with us for a while (years). Too little, too late from the Fed.
 
The Fed keeps hammering the nail. They can't do anybody about companies raising prices under the cover of inflation.
 
PhDeac said:
The Fed keeps hammering the nail. They can't do anybody about companies raising prices under the cover of inflation.
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Are you saying that inflation is occurring because companies are deciding it is OK to raise prices?

Or are you saying that some companies are taking advantage of the inflationary environment by raising prices?

Because I can get on board with the 2nd statement (at least in part), but the 1st one is not accurate.
 
The 2nd. There are plenty of parts to rising prices besides just inflation. This outdated notion that the fed can turn a few knobs and reduce inflation is harmful.
 
PhDeac said:
The 2nd. There are plenty of parts to rising prices besides just inflation. This outdated notion that the fed can turn a few knobs and reduce inflation is harmful.
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Gotcha.

Inflation happens the same way pretty much every time. Central Banks and Governments fuck things up. It takes a while to get inflation from that, but once it happens it is very hard to stop.

The Fed got themselves into this mess. They can fiddle with all the knobs they want, but we're going to be dealing with it for a while and it is going to be painful. Agree that the idea that the Fed can deftly maneuver us out of this is harmful. Also harmful is politicians blaming corporate greed, foreign conflicts, and consumer spending... But we're close to midterms, so I get it.

My hope is that we see inflation come down significantly in the near-term, but I think the days of ~2% or less that we've seen for most of our adult lives are gone for a long, long time.
 
It’s because we are more decoupled from reality than ever before, you think higher interest rates, layoffs and 10% inflation is going to slow down Americans consumption. You want record profits you slap 35 dollars on a 2 liter of Mountain Dew and someone’s still going to a predatory title loan to put that shit in their grocery cart.
 
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