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Investment Thread - For all your money needs

Louis Gossett Jr said:
It’s because we are more decoupled from reality than ever before, you think higher interest rates, layoffs and 10% inflation is going to slow down Americans consumption. You want record profits you slap 35 dollars on a 2 liter of Mountain Dew and someone’s still going to a predatory title loan to put that shit in their grocery cart.
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This is not far from the truth. Part of the reason I am so pessimistic.
 
Market was fun today...

Nothing much going on until Fed announces expected rate hike... Investors read into commentary that Fed might pivot - STOCKS RALLY!

Powell then has his press conference and pours cold water over everything... Rates going higher; Still a ways to go with hikes - STOCKS SELL OFF!
 
DeacsATS said:
Gotcha.

Inflation happens the same way pretty much every time. Central Banks and Governments fuck things up. It takes a while to get inflation from that, but once it happens it is very hard to stop.

The Fed got themselves into this mess. They can fiddle with all the knobs they want, but we're going to be dealing with it for a while and it is going to be painful. Agree that the idea that the Fed can deftly maneuver us out of this is harmful. Also harmful is politicians blaming corporate greed, foreign conflicts, and consumer spending... But we're close to midterms, so I get it.

My hope is that we see inflation come down significantly in the near-term, but I think the days of ~2% or less that we've seen for most of our adult lives are gone for a long, long time.
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Understand this in part, but looking around I see the EU and UK both at at 9.9%, Australia 6.1%, South Korea 5.6%, Canada 7%

only outliers appear to be authoritarian states (Saudi Arabia and China), and Japan, which has had basically zero inflation for 25 years

not trying to play gotcha, earnestly asking - pressures outside the Fed's reasonable control would have given a spike in inflation (perhaps not to 8+%), yes?
 
dartsndeacs said:
I took a loan out a little while ago so I could pounce on some volatility and woke up at 6AM this morning and saw the market down and was seriously considering pulling the trigger. Trying to find the time to buy some netflix/roku at a lower basis to counter some of my wife's trades. Of course missed the action today
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NFLX has had a nice run over the last few months, but you have another shot at ROKU this morning. Down ~20% on a terrible guide.

ROKU is an amazingly ugly stock chart.
 
Buy low today and sell high tomorrow when WEIRD: The Al Yankovic Story premieres on The Roku Channel and sends the stock THROUGH THE ROOF
 
thatguy2016 said:
Understand this in part, but looking around I see the EU and UK both at at 9.9%, Australia 6.1%, South Korea 5.6%, Canada 7%

only outliers appear to be authoritarian states (Saudi Arabia and China), and Japan, which has had basically zero inflation for 25 years

not trying to play gotcha, earnestly asking - pressures outside the Fed's reasonable control would have given a spike in inflation (perhaps not to 8+%), yes?
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I would say a couple of things to that:
1- The US Fed has way more influence than any other central bank. You can see this in looking at what other central banks said around the world after yesterday's hike. The ECB came out and said rates still need to rise significantly. The Bank of England also raised rates 75bps (biggest move in 33 years). Norway raised rates. The US moves and the world follows.
2- I wasn't implying that it was just a US problem. Central banks and governments around the world are terrible at this.

As you mention, there are outliers... However, the three you mentioned are quite unique:
  • Saudi Arabia is one of the only (maybe the only) governments that operates with a surplus (due to oil revenue and a lack of spending on it's citizens).
  • China controls everything and they may be a bit behind this given they are still operating under a Zero-COVID policy.
  • Japan is seeing high inflation (for them) just like everyone else. The Yen is also at 32-year lows. It is going to get worse there before it gets better.
I get what you are saying about pressure outside the Fed's reasonable control, but my point is that the Fed waited way too long to reverse (or even significantly slow) it's stimulative policies that have been in place since the financial crisis of '07-'09. They were way too slow to recognize inflation risks (remember "transitory" from last year?) and got caught flat-footed when the pandemic happened. But if it wasn't the pandemic, it would have been some other shock to the system... Just a matter of when.
 
I mean they should have raised interest rates multiple times over the past 6-8 years but I just can’t quite put my finger on why they didn’t hmmmm
 
DeacsATS said:
NFLX has had a nice run over the last few months, but you have another shot at ROKU this morning. Down ~20% on a terrible guide.

ROKU is an amazingly ugly stock chart.
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Oh my wife bought like 10k of roku and is down like 65%, but her nflx has almost come back to break even
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
I mean they should have raised interest rates multiple times over the past 6-8 years but I just can’t quite put my finger on why they didn’t hmmmm
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6-8 years? Pretty much anytime since 2010 would have been nice.

And beyond rates, they should have reduced the size of the balance sheet earlier than 2018. Ridiculous.

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Here's a fun number. The fed is paying out 117B on roughly 3 TRILLION dollars in interest reserves.
 
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