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Judge Moore accused of sexually assaulting/pursuing underage girls in his 30s

cville deac said:
1. Yes, VA ain't nothing like AL. Ain't in the same ballpark neither. We're about as purple as it gets and trending bluer over time - we're just where out of town white supremacists choose to congregate. AL is as red as it gets.

2. Look at birdman throwing down the gauntlet. Not just 1 sign, which would be crazy enough, but 2 no less. Dude, how many caffeinated drinks do you have per day?

3. Agree with Numbers, er I forget what he wanted me to call him, as to Fox polls. They may have the occasional outlier either way, like this 1 appears to be, but they don't consistently skew right like Rasmussen does. I think E-V.com doesn't include Rasmussen in their averages, though 538 still does. Someone should ask Nate why.

4. Ranger, I think you're making unfair assumptions. I think the amendments Moore refers to are clearly 11, 17 and 27 - reflecting his longstanding views against empowering state courts, directly electing our senators and restricting congressional pay raises.
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From the website:

Banned by 538 ✖ indicates that the polling firm is not used in FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting models because we are concerned that it has faked some polling results or engaged in other gross ethical misconduct.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
From the website:

Banned by 538 ✖ indicates that the polling firm is not used in FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting models because we are concerned that it has faked some polling results or engaged in other gross ethical misconduct.
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So skewing doesn't equal faking or engaging in gross ethical conduct. I guess kinda like the difference between misdemeanors and felonies.

Hey, what does Numbers want me to call him again?
 
cville deac said:
So skewing doesn't equal faking or engaging in gross ethical conduct. I guess kinda like the difference between misdemeanors and felonies.

Hey, what does Numbers want me to call him again?
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There are a ton of polls with bias out there. Rasmussen has a +2 Republican bias.

I guess the data was better with those in there, although I think there could be an argument for a cutoff level in skew that would equate to faking. Maybe there is one that we don't know about (say, +5.0 in either direction).
 
It's been a while since I read about 538's (and other aggregate sites) methodology, but a pollster basically has to have been caught in a blatant fraud to not be considered - I think they might also note (but not outright ban?) where methodology is not publicly available, and therefore 538 is unable to determine whether it's a legitimate pollster or not.

There was some discussion back before the election on one of those sites about how to handle polls which do not attempt to poll according to party affiliation. That is, instead of using the number of registered voters in each party in some capacity to help determine who to poll, pollsters who poll an equal number of democrats and republicans. I know several conservative sites (Fox News specifically as one, perhaps Breitbart as another) constantly ripped on polls because most poll more Democrats but this is because there are more registered Democrats.
 
tiltdeac said:
This was one of the reasons I'm pretty pessimistic. The New Yorker piece today suggested some of the opposite could be going on too, though. That some people in Alabama are scared to admit they might vote for a democrat.
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Funny. More embarrassing for a Republican in Alabama to admit publicly - voting for a pedophile or a Democrat? I guess we’ll find out tomorrow.
 
PhDeac said:
Oh Cathy Ann. Ugh. I tuned that out. I have two thoughts when I see Cathy Ann. First, I hate when Cecily Strong dresses ugly (like I hated it with Kristen Wiig). Second, I miss her Girl You Wish You Hadn’t Started a Conversation with at a Party.

I don't trust the polls at all. Just going by the facts, it should be fairly close.

Roy Moore was never all that popular in AL.
Roy Moore has a major scandal.
Doug Jones has an exemplary record.
All elections this year have tilted heavily towards Democrats.
Special elections favor more enthusiastic voters.
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yeah, cathy ann is a just a poor-man's Drunk Uncle. i just tuned it out but caught that line
 
The funny thing is, at least half of Jones' campaign ads that I've seen have been him talking about how much of a Republican he is. It's not like he's some hippie liberal. As I've said before, even if Jones gets elected, he'll probably only vote about 55 - 60% Democrat.

Unfortunately though, after talking with some people I know here in Birmingham, they truly believe that if Jones is elected he'll vote 100% Democrat knowing that he's a lame duck. People are just so insanely cynical.
 
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tiltdeac said:
This was one of the reasons I'm pretty pessimistic. The New Yorker piece today suggested some of the opposite could be going on too, though. That some people in Alabama are scared to admit they might vote for a democrat.
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I think this election will be like the special elections held in other states earlier in the year - nearly all of them were held in heavily GOP states or districts, and while the Democratic candidate did far better than Democrats usually do in such places, they still lost. I think that's what will happen in Alabama tomorrow - Jones will run far better than a typical Democrat, but will still fall short. Maybe enough Republicans will privately vote Democratic to give Jones a chance, but I'm not counting on it.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Yeah, Fox News has it as "B" with a .5 Pub bias. Not bad at all.

The main thing about this race is that the polls are going to be not that great because of the sheer number of things that can impact it: from Roy Moore, to enthusiasm amongst Dems in having an actual candidate that could win, to the overall national landscape.

It wouldn't surprise me if they were way off on this one. Just a ton of variables.
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I personally think Fox's sampling processs or data analysis process are biased in Jones' favor. Weeks ago, before the pedophilia accusations, they put out a poll with Jones and Moore tied. When all other polls gave Moore a high single digit or double le figure lead.
 
cville deac said:
1. Yes, VA ain't nothing like AL. Ain't in the same ballpark neither. We're about as purple as it gets and trending bluer over time - we're just where out of town white supremacists choose to congregate. AL is as red as it gets.

2. Look at birdman throwing down the gauntlet. Not just 1 sign, which would be crazy enough, but 2 no less. Dude, how many caffeinated drinks do you have per day?

3. Agree with Numbers, er I forget what he wanted me to call him, as to Fox polls. They may have the occasional outlier either way, like this 1 appears to be, but they don't consistently skew right like Rasmussen does. I think E-V.com doesn't include Rasmussen in their averages, though 538 still does. Someone should ask Nate why.

4. Ranger, I think you're making unfair assumptions. I think the amendments Moore refers to are clearly 11, 17 and 27 - reflecting his longstanding views against empowering state courts, directly electing our senators and restricting congressional pay raises.
Click to expand...

I'm in a corner lot; I've got one for each street.
 
The fact that the signs haven't been torn down gives me hope.
 
I spent a couple hours at our town Christmas parade handing out candy with Doug Jones stickers attached and people actually refused to let their kids have any because it was Democrat candy. Some people fucking hate Democrats, where as if a teenager girl is hot enough...
 
PhDeac said:
The fact that the signs haven't been torn down gives me hope.
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I had one stolen on Iron Bowl day but thanks to foresight I had a spare. If I'd lost another it was getting replaced with a sign that says "Roy Moore is probably a pedophile, vote like your kids live here."

I actually have a neighbor with a hand painted Doug Jones for senate sign. He actually went to the effort to paint it, nail it to some specially cut stakes and hammer it into the ground...that's enthusiasm.
 
birdman said:
I personally think Fox's sampling processs or data analysis process are biased in Jones' favor. Weeks ago, before the pedophilia accusations, they put out a poll with Jones and Moore tied. When all other polls gave Moore a high single digit or double le figure lead.
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Agreed. If I remember correctly, Fox fielded the poll in tandem with the RNC during the few weeks they were trying to get Moore to drop out. I don't think they ever released the full results of it either.

Would not be surprised if this is another bullshit poll to either depress D turnout or to make it a bigger story when Moore wins by 5pts.
 
I don’t know why any of this is shocking to people. This is real America in all its glory.
 
I think there are a lot of people who didn't think "real Americans" were this bad until 2016.
 
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