Mike Brey leads the Fighting Irish into LJVM for the Deacs' Senior Day on Saturday afternoon. Here is an update on ND since WF visited Mayor Pete's hometown on January 29 (the prior KP Report is linked here:
https://www.ogboards.com/forums/showthread.php/32053-KP-Report-Notre-Dame-Wednesday-7-pm-ACCN):
Season update: ND has been rolling since the last WF/Irish match up going 7-2 in conference to raise the overall record to 18-10 (9-8). Currently, ND and Cuse are tied for 5th place in the conference. Upon closer review, Irish's current 7-2 run in not as impressive as it initially appears as those seven wins came against: #95 WF (Chaundee did not play), #91 UNC (by 1 -- the Heels blew 15 point lead late), #113 Pitt, #73 GT, #171 BC (BC led for most of the game, ND won on Rex Pflueger shot at the buzzer), and #106 Miami. ND's best win over that stretch was a 4 point win at Clemson, when Clemson's leading scorer Aamir Simms did not play. ND's style remains the same: play solid offense (#3 in the ACC in offensive efficiency) and crappy defense (#14 in defensive efficiency). John Mooney scored 22 points and hauled down 12 boards in last night's win at BC. While Mooney is ND's leading scorer and rebounder, all 7 of the players in the ND rotation have scored double figures at least once over their recent winning stretch.
KP Projection: KP predicts a 74-73 WF win. History says the game will be close. Other than a 34-point blow out loss to Duke, ND's ACC road games have been decided by: 1, 1 (in OT), 4, 4, 5 and 1. If WF's does have an 6 to 12 point lead in the final minutes, you can reliably count on the Deacs giving up open threes and taking awkward late possessions shots to ensure that the game is decided on the final possession. Even so, really like WF to win on Saturday as WF is the better team, Chaundee is back and ND is playing consecutive road games after a fortunate win last night. All of that said, Manning's teams have a habit of throwing up on themselves after a conference win: WF has not won back to back ACC in games in three years.
WF has lost its last 12 ACC games after a conference win - just an impossibly bad streak after what should be a positive moment to build-upon. Just mind-boggling how poorly WF plays after a little success (most recently, a mediocre Miami team blew out the Deacs after the UNC win), and Tuesday's win was bigger than any of WF's previous 11 wins. While conventional wisdom says never go against a streak as you can lose multiple times and win only once, I will take the Deacs to beat the Irish on Saturday.