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KP Report on the Fighting Illini (UI)

Pilchard

Pilchard

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University of Illinois Fighting Illini:

Ranked #102 by KP (WF is #80). KP projects a 81-76 WF win.

UI is 6-0, beating one non-D 1 team, and then a collection of misfit toys; all at home. Illinois' headline win, to date, is a 82-73 home win over a 2-4 DePaul (#124) team coached by UVA reject Dave Leitao. Illinois scraped by a weak TN-Martin team 77-74, and most recently beat NC Central 86-73 this past weekend. To give an idea of how poor the fighting Illini schedule has been, Illinois' schedule is rated #342 out of the 351 D-1 teams. WF's schedule, which has been soft, is rated more than 100 spots (#234) ahead of Illinois' schedule.

Brad Underwood's (now on his 3rd job in three years after escaping OK State on the eve of the FBI bribery investigation) team plays at a fast tempo (#34 in possessions per game; the fastest pace of any WF opponent to date); they don't turn it over a lot (#46 in TO %), hit the offensive boards hard (#25 in offensive rebounding %), and get to the line a lot #28 in FTA per FGA. Illinois has struggled from deep (31 % #259 from 3; only 23% of their offense comes from 3s #313). KP has the Illinois offense at #134 (WF is rated #30). FWIW, KP rated Underwood's 2016-2017 OK State team as the #1 offensive team in the country; they scored 90 or over 14 times including a 92-91 loss to Michigan in last year's NCAA tournament.

On defense (KP #78; WF #202 !!!!), Illinois plays mostly man, and they have forced turnovers (#17 in TO%) and protected the rim well (#49 in 2 PT FG D); a lot of that may have been the UI schedule, as none of Illinois' opponents have prolific interior offenses. UI has fouled a lot as they are #284 in FTA/FGA on defense. Illinois pushes the pace with their defense by looking for early turnovers and allowing quick shots (#16 in shortest possessions on defense).


Illinois lost 3 starters off last year's mediocre (20-15) team. They start a Wright State transfer (Mark Alstork - who WF may have looked at), a freshman (Mark Smith) and three role players from last year's team. The Illini center, Michael Finke can hit the 3. Underwood uses his bench (Illinois is #16 in bench minutes), and they have 9 players who have averaged more than 16 minutes a game so far this year.

Illinois is not huge (#139 in average height; about the same as WF -- #132). Illinois' starting center is 6-10; the rest of the players in their rotation are 6-7 and smaller. Illinois two PGs are 6-1.

Keys for WF will be to limit turnovers, take advantage of the aggressive Illinois defense by getting to the line, and making FTs. On defense, WF needs to keep Illinois off the offensive glass, and defend the 3. So far, WF has been unbelievably bad #332 (43%; worst by a mile among teams in Power V conferences) at defending the 3. Realize that shooting the 3 has not been a strength for Illinois to date, but if WF doesn't defend the arc, Illinois will shoot and make 3s. Expect this to be WF's highest scoring game to date.
 
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I have no confidence in us being able to beat any team from a power conference right now.
 
BTW, Brad Underwood's W-L record over his 4 (3 at Stephen F Austin; 1 at OK State) years plus this season as a head coach: 115-27. Not too shabby.
 
Because the starters aren't that good?
 
9 pm tomorrow. Hoop lines aren't posted until game day.

Vegas lines typically track within a few points of the KP spread, which has WF winning by 5 (based upon WF's struggles to date, would expect the line to be less than 5).
 
Pilchard said:
9 pm tomorrow. Hoop lines aren't posted until game day.

Vegas lines typically track within a few points of the KP spread, which has WF winning by 5 (based upon WF's struggles to date, would expect the line to be less than 5).
Click to expand...

Deacs open as a 3 point favorite over the not so Fighting Illini. Line basically means teams are rated even. Maybe Danny can squeeze out a win. I like Danny's contract extension because he can recruit and Wake can't win with 2 star players. Patience is needed this season.
 
Pilchard said:
9 pm tomorrow. Hoop lines aren't posted until game day.

Vegas lines typically track within a few points of the KP spread, which has WF winning by 5 (based upon WF's struggles to date, would expect the line to be less than 5).
Click to expand...

KP isn’t fully connected at this point so I would assume the relationship isn’t as tight as later in the season?
 
WFU Lurker said:
KP isn’t fully connected at this point so I would assume the relationship isn’t as tight as later in the season?
Click to expand...

That's correct, but even now, the projections and the spread and O/U are close. KP score projections don't account for injuries and suspensions; so, when that happens there can be a wide variance between the line and the projected score, but otherwise the differences are typically minimal.
 
Good breakdown of the team. I will note while 3pt shooting has been great overall for them, it has picked up in the last 3 games. Their schedule certainly has been very weak from the outset. This week is their first test, playing @Wake, then @Northwestern, and at home vs Maryland. Keys for Illinois will be to stay outta foul trouble, and keep getting to the line. Mark Smith has yet to shoot the 3 ball really well, but possesses a lot of strength and gets to the line quite often. Illinois will need a good game from him if they want to win. Their best players so far have been Michael Finke (Not to surprising) and Aaron Jordan (Extremely surprising). Jordan has one of the highest 3pt FG% is the nation this year, and has been a sparkplug for the Illini both offensively and defensively. Kipper Nichols is another guy who has proven to be very valuable with his offense and rebounding. It should be a good game.
 
buckets said:
Because the starters aren't that good?
Click to expand...

Starters for all the games so far have been as follows:

Lucas PG

Alstork SG

Mark Smith G

Leron Black PF

Michael Finke C

Finke, Black, and Smith have all produced fairly well thus far. Lucas and Alstork have been good passers, but not great scorers. That was to be expected with Lucas, but Alstork was supposed to be the go to guy this year, which hasn't been the case. He averaged ~ 19PPG last year at Wright St. Hasn't come close to that yet.
 
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