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Lectro was RIGHT--post1626--(climate related)

lol ok, first of all science is not "changing away from CO2" despite your endless attempts to discredit modeling. I don't know why i keep coming back to this black hole, because the bottom line is here is that there seems to be a fundamental misunderstanding of how scientific research is done, and shockingly, you, a purported researcher is one of the most vocal parties.

Being skeptical of existing research is fundamental to research, but believing in a "science mafia" or some kind of conspiracy is just partisan, cynical, and mostly childish. I bash people who post links to conservative and/or big energy blog posts that cherry pick or misinterpret (deliberately or not) studies.

The models don't need any discrediting...they have done that quite well on their own.

The models have posted more "L's" than [Redacted]...yet these forecasters continue, undaunted by spectacular failures...it seems that once one buys in to the "end times" spiel then the tongue can't help but become an enflamed font of apocalyptic hyperbole. < :)
 
Well said....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/charles-krauthammer-the-myth-of-settled-science/2014/02/20/c1f8d994-9a75-11e3-b931-0204122c514b_story.html

The myth of ‘settled science’

By Charles Krauthammer, Published: February 20 E-mail the writer

I repeat: I’m not a global warming believer. I’m not a global warming denier. I’ve long believed that it cannot be good for humanity to be spewing tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. I also believe that those scientists who pretend to know exactly what this will cause in 20, 30 or 50 years are white-coated propagandists.

“The debate is settled,” asserted propagandist in chief Barack Obama in his latest State of the Union address. “Climate change is a fact.” Really? There is nothing more anti-scientific than the very idea that science is settled, static, impervious to challenge. Take a non-climate example. It was long assumed that mammograms help reduce breast cancer deaths. This fact was so settled that Obamacare requires every insurance plan to offer mammograms (for free, no less) or be subject to termination.

Now we learn from a massive randomized study — 90,000 women followed for 25 years — that mammograms may have no effect on breast cancer deaths. Indeed, one out of five of those diagnosed by mammogram receives unnecessary radiation, chemo or surgery.

See ONW's post below.

So much for settledness. And climate is less well understood than breast cancer. If climate science is settled, why do its predictions keep changing? And how is it that the great physicist Freeman Dyson, who did some climate research in the late 1970s, thinks today’s climate-change Cassandras are hopelessly mistaken?

They deal with the fluid dynamics of the atmosphere and oceans, argues Dyson, ignoring the effect of biology, i.e., vegetation and topsoil. Further, their predictions rest on models they fall in love with: “You sit in front of a computer screen for 10 years and you start to think of your model as being real.” Not surprisingly, these models have been “consistently and spectacularly wrong” in their predictions, write atmospheric scientists Richard McNider and John Christy — and always, amazingly, in the same direction.

Settled? Even Britain’s national weather service concedes there’s been no change — delicately called a “pause” — in global temperature in 15 years. If even the raw data is recalcitrant, let alone the assumptions and underlying models, how settled is the science?

Models are bad.

But even worse than the pretense of settledness is the cynical attribution of any politically convenient natural disaster to climate change, a clever term that allows you to attribute anything — warming and cooling, drought and flood — to man’s sinful carbon burning.

Accordingly, Obama ostentatiously visited drought-stricken California last Friday. Surprise! He blamed climate change. Here even the New York Times gagged, pointing out that far from being supported by the evidence, “the most recent computer projections suggest that as the world warms, California should get wetter, not drier, in the winter.”

Models are good again!

How inconvenient. But we’ve been here before. Hurricane Sandy was made the poster child for the alleged increased frequency and strength of “extreme weather events” like hurricanes.

Nonsense. Sandy wasn’t even a hurricane when it hit the United States. Indeed, in all of 2012, only a single hurricane made U.S. landfall . And 2013 saw the fewest Atlantic hurricanes in 30 years. In fact, in the last half-century, one-third fewer major hurricanes have hit the United States than in the previous half-century.

Whether you call it a hurricane or not has no effect on the devastation caused or the fact that is was an "extreme weather event."

Similarly tornadoes. Every time one hits, the climate-change commentary begins. Yet last year saw the fewest in a quarter-century. And the last 30 years — of presumed global warming — has seen a 30 percent decrease in extreme tornado activity (F3 and above) versus the previous 30 years.

The Fujita Scale didn't even exist until 1971.

None of this is dispositive. It doesn’t settle the issue. But that’s the point. It mocks the very notion of settled science, which is nothing but a crude attempt to silence critics and delegitimize debate. As does the term “denier” — an echo of Holocaust denial, contemptibly suggesting the malevolent rejection of an established historical truth.

Always good to have a Hitler reference.

Climate-change proponents have made their cause a matter of fealty and faith. For folks who pretend to be brave carriers of the scientific ethic, there’s more than a tinge of religion in their jeremiads. If you whore after other gods, the Bible tells us, “the Lord’s wrath be kindled against you, and he shut up the heaven, that there be no rain, and that the land yield not her fruit” (Deuteronomy 11).

This is also a religious issue. Get riled up, Conservative Christians!

Sounds like California. Except that today there’s a new god, the Earth Mother. And a new set of sins — burning coal and driving a fully equipped F-150.

YEE-HAW!

But whoring is whoring, and the gods must be appeased. So if California burns, you send your high priest (in carbon -belching Air Force One, but never mind) to the bone-dry land to offer up, on behalf of the repentant congregation, a $1 billion burnt offering called a “climate resilience fund.”

Researching the climate is bad.

Ah, settled science in action.

Apparently it's settled that climate change is nothing more than a liberal talking point.

...
 
Calm down, you don't have that much to be proud of...looking at cap'n face scrunch,ONW and a deacinhishand it's clear that it is fairly easy being a mindless asshole spewing Tabloid Climatology.
 
Yo G, like the fresh Deacs of old these Motha fugga's comin' straight out da Greenhouse!

Check out my lead Denier, yo...young Hebrew Astrophysicist bitches, Mister Nir Shaviv.

Overturning that apple-bottom-cash-cart loaded wif bloated azz gas-bags shaggin' science for a dolla...

My Boi, ridin' point for R Galileo3 -- Henrik Sven and the cosmic spin:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nir_Shaviv
 
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lol ok, first of all science is not "changing away from CO2" despite your endless attempts to discredit modeling.
Excuse me? The scientific "facts" of climate change according to climate researchers:

10 years ago: 4-6°C change in temps (depending on the model) by the end of the century, 100% CO2 driven.

Current: 1.5°C change in temp by the end of the century, ~25% CO2 driven (with 3 other drivers: solar, ocean temps, particulates).

Both the temp change and the percentage blamed on CO2 has dropped tremendously and you believe we aren't moving away from CO2 as the issue? All I'm stating is the data generated by the people YOU believe in. But you're so blinded by the political dogma you completely miss the scientific FACTS and end up arguing against something that is plainly obvious. The current view is way more in line with my view than yours.
 
there seems to be a fundamental misunderstanding of how scientific research is done, and shockingly, you, a purported researcher is one of the most vocal parties.

Being skeptical of existing research is fundamental to research, but believing in a "science mafia" or some kind of conspiracy is just partisan, cynical, and mostly childish. I bash people who post links to conservative and/or big energy blog posts that cherry pick or misinterpret (deliberately or not) studies.
Wait a sec, when CO2 was supposedly 100% of the problem, I said there was no way it could be 100% of the problem because they weren't factoring in solar contributions, particulates, and ocean temp changes (plus other things)...and we knew little of any of the three affected anything. That was being SCIENTIFICALLY skeptical of climate change science. People like you said I was an asshole, moron for being skeptical...all driven by conservative politics.

A lot of my scientific criticisms from 10 years ago are in fact...becoming true. Now we find out there are solar, ocean temp, and particulate contributions....and that we know VERY LITTLE about how they affect climate. And you can't even define the theories and how they are changing.

Yet I'm the one that doesn't fundamentally understand science?

The problem with climate researchers is it's been a lot of scientific group think driven by a blind and very flawed belief that complex models in and of themselves are science. They were so woefully incomplete it's absurd..and I'm sure embarrassing for some as real research destroys all their assumptions. One doesn't have to invoke a "science mafia" to get there. It happens all the time in science, it's just rarely co-opted into politics.

The bullshit comes from people like you who are so politically driven you can't see what is happening. You think you've been defending the same theory the entire time and don't realize how it's changing. Now you're defending skepticism WHILE hammering and trying to silence the skeptics. Can you explain that?
 
Excuse me? The scientific "facts" of climate change according to climate researchers:

10 years ago: 4-6°C change in temps (depending on the model) by the end of the century, 100% CO2 driven.

Current: 1.5°C change in temp by the end of the century, ~25% CO2 driven (with 3 other drivers: solar, ocean temps, particulates).

Both the temp change and the percentage blamed on CO2 has dropped tremendously and you believe we aren't moving away from CO2 as the issue? All I'm stating is the data generated by the people YOU believe in. But you're so blinded by the political dogma you completely miss the scientific FACTS and end up arguing against something that is plainly obvious. The current view is way more in line with my view than yours.

Says Young Master Astrophysicist-G, Nir Shaviv :

"A few years ago if you would ask me I would tell you it's CO2. Why? Because just like everyone else in the public I listened to what the media had to say.[4] ”
 
I like when Lectro pays his utility bills and gets the internet turned back on. He then carpetbombs a couple of threads over and over until it gets turned off again.
 
See Lectro, I can copypasta too. Perfect response to the inane drivel posted from pourdeac and Lectro on a daily basis.

I'm a real scientist. I'd make my name, research area, and organization openly available, but the fact of the matter is that I don't like getting death threats.

I'm a perpetual lurker, but I'm tired of looking through the nonsense that gets posted by a subset of the community on these types of posts. It's extremely predictable. Ten years ago, you were telling us that the climate wasn't changing. Five years ago, you were telling us that climate change wasn't anthropogenic in origin. Now, you're telling us that anthropogenic climate change might be real, but it's certainly not a bad thing. I'm pretty sure that five years from now you'll be admitting it's a bad thing, but saying that you have no obligation to mitigate the effects.

You know why you're changing your story so often? It's because you guys are armchair quarterbacks scientists. You took some science classes in high school twenty years ago and you're pretty sure it must be mostly the same now. I mean, chemical reactions follow static laws and stuff, or something, right? Okay, you're rusty, but you read a few dozen blog posts each year. Maybe a book or two if you're feeling motivated. Certainly, you listen to the radio and that's plenty good enough.

I'm sorry, but it's needs to be said: you're full of it.

I'm at the Ocean Sciences Meeting in Honolulu, sponsored by ASLO, TOS, and AGU. I was just at a tutorial session on the IPCC AR5 report a few days ago. The most recent IPCC report was prepared by ~300 scientists with the help of ~50 editors. These people reviewed over 9000 climate change articles to prepare their report, and their report received over 50,000 comments to improve it's quality and accuracy. I know you'll jump all over me for guesstimating these numbers, but I'm not going to waste more of my time looking it up. You can find the exact numbers if you really want them, and I know you argue just to be contrary.

Let's be honest here. These climate change scientists do climate science for a living. Surprise! Articles. Presentations. Workshops. Conferences. Staying late for science. Working on the weekends for science. All of those crappy holidays like Presidents' Day? The ones you look forward to for that day off of work? Those aren't holidays. Those are the days when the undergrads stay home and the scientists can work without distractions.
Now take a second before you drop your knowledge bomb on this page and remind me again... What's your day job? When was the last time you read through an entire scholarly article on climate change? How many climate change journals can you name? How many conferences have you attended? Have you ever had coffee or a beer with a group of colleagues who study climate change? Are you sick of these inane questions yet?
I'm a scientist that studies how ecological systems respond to climate change. I would never presume to tell a climate scientist that their models are crap. I just don't have the depth of knowledge to critically assess their work and point out their flaws. And that's fair, because they don't have the depth of knowledge in my area to point out my flaws. Yet, here we are, with skeptics and apologists with orders of magnitude less scientific expertise, attempting to argue about climate change.

I mean, there's so much nonsense here just from the ecology side of things:

Again, someone who knows just enough about the climate debate to say something vaguely intelligent-sounding, but not enough to actually say something useful. One could search for review papers on the effects of climate change on ecological systems via Google Scholar, but it would be hard work actually reading one. TLDRs: 1) rapid environmental change hurts most species and that's why biodiversity is crashing; 2) rapid environmental change helps some species, but I didn't know you liked toxic algal blooms that much; 3) evolution can occur on rapid timescales, but it'll take millions of years for meaningful speciation to replace what we're losing in a matter of decades.
But you know, I really pity people like you.It must be hard taking your car to 100 mechanics before you get to one that tells you your brakes are working just fine. It must be hard going to 100 doctors before you find the one that tells you your cholesterol level is healthy. No, I'm just kidding. People like you treat scientific disciplines as one of the few occupations where an advanced degree, decades of training, mathematical and statistical expertise, and terabytes of data are equivalent with a passing familiarity with right-wing or industry talking points.

I'd like to leave you with two final thoughts.

First, I know that many in this community are going to think, "okay, you might be right, but why do you need to be such an ******** about it?" This isn't about intellectual elitism. This isn't about silencing dissent. This is about being fed up. The human race is on a long road trip and the skeptics and apologists are the backseat drivers. They don't like how the road trip is going but, rather than help navigating, they're stuck kicking the driver's seat and complaining about how long things are taking. I'd kick them out of the car, but we're all locked in together. The best I can do is give them a whack on the side of the head.

Second, I hope that anyone with a sincere interest in learning about climate change continues to ask questions. Asking critical questions is an important part of the learning process and the scientific endeavor and should always be encouraged. Just remember that "do mountaintops provide essential ecosystem services?" is a question and "mountaintop ecosystem services are not a fundamental scientific principle" is a ridiculous and uninformed statement. Questions are good, especially when they're critical. Statements of fact without citations or expertise is intellectual masturbation - just without the intellect.

Toodles. I'm going to bed now so that I can listen to, look at, and talk about science for another 12 hours tomorrow. Have fun at the office.
 
No increase in global mean temperature in 17 years.

Just the facts...not all the circular re-spun wind you just blew...

No global mean temp increase in 17 years.

Not one single model of the (107?) models in use by the IPCC predicted this standstill.

The Sun drives earthen climate and it's fluctuations are critical to understanding the weather on earth.

A real expert weighs in:

"In fact, there is no substantial evidence which proves that CO2 and other GHGs are the primary cause for the warming, and not some other mechanism. You may have seen articles which point to the contrary, that there is clear evidence, but if you dig deeply into them, you will realize that these are merely suggestions for a CO2 climate link and not evidence." [2]

- Nir Shaviv
 
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Greenland Ice Cores reveal the need to look for natural causes to explain dramatic climate change. Some 12,000 years ago the earth experienced a radical change in conditions which were produced in as little as 3 years. The myopic focus on CO2 is actually taking our eyes off the real challenge for science...

Ice core data reveals:

In this study (2–20-mm resolution) changes in calcium and sodium atmospheric circulation proxies preceded changes in snow accumulation, followed by a change in temperature using stable water isotopes. A second example of the advantage gained by high-resolution sampling is the demonstration, based on continuous melt sampling techniques (2.5–5.0-cm resolution), that the onset of Holocene climate occurred over 1–3 years and that the abrupt shift in atmospheric circulation at this transition preceded a change in temperature (Steffensen et al., 2008). Here, we use previously developed ice core climate proxies, expand upon the concept of finer scale sampling of calcium and sodium with the addition of iron, and focus on the abrupt climate change precursor – a change in atmospheric circulation.
 
Wait a sec, when CO2 was supposedly 100% of the problem, I said there was no way it could be 100% of the problem because they weren't factoring in solar contributions, particulates, and ocean temp changes (plus other things)...and we knew little of any of the three affected anything. That was being SCIENTIFICALLY skeptical of climate change science. People like you said I was an asshole, moron for being skeptical...all driven by conservative politics.

A lot of my scientific criticisms from 10 years ago are in fact...becoming true. Now we find out there are solar, ocean temp, and particulate contributions....and that we know VERY LITTLE about how they affect climate. And you can't even define the theories and how they are changing.

Yet I'm the one that doesn't fundamentally understand science?

The problem with climate researchers is it's been a lot of scientific group think driven by a blind and very flawed belief that complex models in and of themselves are science. They were so woefully incomplete it's absurd..and I'm sure embarrassing for some as real research destroys all their assumptions. One doesn't have to invoke a "science mafia" to get there. It happens all the time in science, it's just rarely co-opted into politics.

The bullshit comes from people like you who are so politically driven you can't see what is happening. You think you've been defending the same theory the entire time and don't realize how it's changing. Now you're defending skepticism WHILE hammering and trying to silence the skeptics. Can you explain that?

Its like you have ESPN or something...
 
Professor Nir Shaviv Advises Grad Students To Stay Away From Global Warming
- See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2011/01/11/...way-from-global-warming/#sthash.Wvt9Ywj0.dpuf

“Because climate science is so dogmatic,” he warns.

Whoever challenges the notion of man-made climate change gets mercilessly punished by the Establishment. So it is no surprise that one hardly finds any young researchers who take a critical and skeptical view, and that mainly retired professors dominated the conference.”

Also 38-year old academic high-flyer Nir Shaviv advises his own students on the threat of sanctions and reminds them to be very careful in challenging official climate dogma: ‘Whoever starts questioning is taking the risk of shooting himself in the knee.’”
 
Cont.

"My point is that because climate science is so dogmatic students do risk burning themselves because of the politics, if they don’t follow the party line. Since doing bad (“alarmist”) climate science is not an option either, I advise them to do things which are not directly related to global warming. (In fact, all but one of the graduate students I had, work or worked on pure astrophysical projects). I, on the other hand, have the luxury of tenure, so I can shout the truth as loud as I want without really being hurt.”
 
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