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Mafia: C9++ Makeup Game: Civs win!

DeacDiggler said:
even BB makes no sense - i admit i'm not good at probability (and they didn't teach it in my accounting classes) but for BB: 5/100 x 5/100 = .0025, not .0064
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i was basing it on us being in TTT, and then only calculating remaining out of 50 instead of out of 100 because um
 
we are in fact waiting for the counterclaim (would have been great if gouda had done it when he was alive FFS)
 
TownieDeac said:
i was basing it on us being in TTT, and then only calculating remaining out of 50 instead of out of 100 because um
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But townie that misses the point

You have claimed vanilla. The only way that is possible is if it is TTTCCCC or TTTCCVV AND that Da is the CC or VV

Which means when you throw the other possibilities I listed into account, then that scenario is far less likely
 
anyway i think my math was broadly correct if you double it and it's more likely that one of the two of you is lying, followed by both of you lying, and the least likely statistical scenario is that you're both telling teh truth

but i'd double check that math
 
DeacdeTejas said:
But townie that misses the point

You have claimed vanilla. The only way that is possible is if it is TTTCCCC or TTTCCVV AND that Da is the CC or VV

Which means when you throw the other possibilities I listed into account, then that scenario is far less likely
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CCCC or CCVV (me telling the truth and da coming with the counter claim) is what i'm banking on here because i only know what i know
 
TownieDeac said:
anyway i think my math was broadly correct if you double it and it's more likely that one of the two of you is lying, followed by both of you lying, and the least likely statistical scenario is that you're both telling teh truth

but i'd double check that math
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townie...

just one of us cant be lying if you are vanilla. Hence your math is wrong
 
fine, I'll take your word for it on the math, but that also ignores several hundred posts of gameplay and plenty of opportunities for counterclaims to have been made, or investigations to have been made, or for baseless claims to have been undermined.....yet none of that has happened.
 
DeacdeTejas said:
townie...

just one of us cant be lying if you are vanilla. Hence your math is wrong
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more precisely the math might be correct, but in order for the other scenarios to be possible, i'd have to be lying. i believe that's what you mean rather than the math being wrong (if you double my original numbers luls).
 
DeacDiggler said:
fine, I'll take your word for it on the math, but that also ignores several hundred posts of gameplay and plenty of opportunities for counterclaims to have been made, or investigations to have been made, or for baseless claims to have been undermined.....yet none of that has happened.
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Correct. If you are mafia or sk i will blame other folks at this point.
 
i don't really need to keep arguing this. It's not like Townie is going to sheepishly come clean that we're right. We have the information and we can vote accordingly. I assume Da will stack on me and force a tie?
 
DeacDiggler said:
fine, I'll take your word for it on the math, but that also ignores several hundred posts of gameplay and plenty of opportunities for counterclaims to have been made, or investigations to have been made, or for baseless claims to have been undermined.....yet none of that has happened.
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well maybe at some point now that da has remembered how to log into the website he was on earlier this morning and maybe if gouda had thought about counter claiming and maybe if juice didn't get locked out of his house and mako didn't try and vote out a claimed civ special, we'd be in a different place right now. but here the fuck we are.
 
Vote Update (~40 minutes remaining)

Diggler (1) Townie
Townie (1) Diggler

YTV: Da, Tejas

PM with corrections
 
DeacDiggler said:
i don't really need to keep arguing this. It's not like Townie is going to sheepishly come clean that we're right. We have the information and we can vote accordingly. I assume Da will stack on me and force a tie?
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i'll sheepishly admit i may have screwed up the math, but not going to sheepishly walk back my claim
 
TownieDeac said:
more precisely the math might be correct, but in order for the other scenarios to be possible, i'd have to be lying. i believe that's what you mean rather than the math being wrong (if you double my original numbers luls).
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lol quit playing word games

if you "know" you are vanilla then the math doesnt matter. It means da has to be a civ special. None of the rest is possible.
 
DeacdeTejas said:
lol quit playing word games

if you "know" you are vanilla then the math doesnt matter. It means da has to be a civ special. None of the rest is possible.
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i've succumbed to this, yes

i was playing out the rest of the math because it's worth everyone making an informed call, da included.
 
DeacdeTejas said:
lol quit playing word games

if you "know" you are vanilla then the math doesnt matter. It means da has to be a civ special. None of the rest is possible.
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hey, if townie is vanilla and da is a civ special we won 3 hours ago!
 
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