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MBB Game 14: Miami Hurricanes @ WF - 2:15 Saturday - CW Network

IAppreciateIt said:
I think it goes way beyond that. You seem to be phrasing it as a necessarily evil. I think we need our 5s (Reid and Keller) to be threats from the outside if we play Carr at the 4 and want to get much offense out of him in the paint (otherwise he’s somewhat neutered just standing in the corner).

In the 2nd half of yesterday’s game, Miami was agggressively clogging the paint (Forbes made a comment in his presser about forcing tough shots too much and not looking for enough open threes). But when Keller hit that shot from the corner it actually slightly helped free up the middle.
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I mean ... I've got zero issues with putting 5 shooters on the floor at any and all times. Insert the "to me, that's cinema" meme.

Was more so saying to Salty that if you're wanting 5s to go to the low block every possession, the game is moving in the opposite direction. The "Wake is going to live with the occasional 3-pointer missed" from those guys fails to mention those guys are obviously capable of hitting those shots -- my bad on that.
 
CONeill said:
I mean ... I've got zero issues with putting 5 shooters on the floor at any and all times. Insert the "to me, that's cinema" meme.

Was more so saying to Salty that if you're wanting 5s to go to the low block every possession, the game is moving in the opposite direction. The "Wake is going to live with the occasional 3-pointer missed" from those guys fails to mention those guys are obviously capable of hitting those shots -- my bad on that.
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I don't like the corner threes from Efton. Any other 3 at least he'll get back on defense on time in transition.
 
Jroc25 said:
I don't like the corner threes from Efton. Any other 3 at least he'll get back on defense on time in transition.
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I get where you're coming from ... but analytics models love corner 3s so much that they're almost never a "bad" shot.
 
bym051d said:
Serious question - How does it handle teams who have different players throughout the year? We are clearly a different team with Reid. With Reid, we very well could’ve been 14-0.
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It doesn't, at all. The committee says that's their job - to look at injuries, player adds/subtractions, determine added emphasis on critical games throughout the year, rate the quality of performances versus just outcomes, etc. - they basically make sure there are enough things left out of the numbers to justify their own eye test judgments.

Most pro-NET folks paint everyone that hates it as dinosaurs who don't believe in analytics. And sure, those people are out there, but there's a far more reasonable contingent that simply recognizes that the NET is both flawed as a metric and made worse by the quad system - even if it's better than what came before it. Forbes is one of those types - he is a HUGE analytics guy but hates the NET and the weight it carries. What's funny is the NCAA loves to tout how they worked with Google to develop the NET - Google analytics folks I know cringe every time it's mentioned. It's basically designed to ignore injuries, improvement, walk-on participation, garbage time points, back-door covers, end-game foul scenarios, piling on in blowouts, and cross-conference adjustments. Vegas metrics look at efficiency but factor in minute percentages played by who is on the court, so dropping 10 points in 90 seconds against scrubs has no weight. When teams show obvious improvement through injury/performance whatever they're factored in. They know the difference between the 10th and 50th team may not be identical to the difference between the 70th and 110th team. Forbes calls it dumb because it is designed to be dumb.

I'd never argue there's a "perfect" metric out there, or that the NET isn't far better than the RPI or old-guy eye tests alone. But the embracing of the NET to the degree we're seeing now is not, even remotely, justified by the moderate improvement it's provided. And "just be so good it's not a factor" is an equally horrible defense, as is "oh well the committee will adjust for stuff the NET leaves out once the season is over" because they are absolutely not digging deep enough into the entire season of adjustments that would be needed to account for that.
 
NET is god awful. Wake is at 47. Who is just in front of them? San Francisco. An 11-4 team coming off a hard fought 4 point win over Pacific. They also lost to Grand Canyon this season. If we lose out on the tournament based on some metrics/algorithm/model bs this year I’m gonna lose it.
 
Harpua said:
NET is god awful. Wake is at 47. Who is just in front of them? San Francisco. An 11-4 team coming off a hard fought 4 point win over Pacific. They also lost to Grand Canyon this season. If we lose out on the tournament based on some metrics/algorithm/model bs this year I’m gonna lose it.
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If they'd beaten NJIT, they might be 46.
 
DCDeac said:
It doesn't, at all. The committee says that's their job - to look at injuries, player adds/subtractions, determine added emphasis on critical games throughout the year, rate the quality of performances versus just outcomes, etc. - they basically make sure there are enough things left out of the numbers to justify their own eye test judgments.

Most pro-NET folks paint everyone that hates it as dinosaurs who don't believe in analytics. And sure, those people are out there, but there's a far more reasonable contingent that simply recognizes that the NET is both flawed as a metric and made worse by the quad system - even if it's better than what came before it. Forbes is one of those types - he is a HUGE analytics guy but hates the NET and the weight it carries. What's funny is the NCAA loves to tout how they worked with Google to develop the NET - Google analytics folks I know cringe every time it's mentioned. It's basically designed to ignore injuries, improvement, walk-on participation, garbage time points, back-door covers, end-game foul scenarios, piling on in blowouts, and cross-conference adjustments. Vegas metrics look at efficiency but factor in minute percentages played by who is on the court, so dropping 10 points in 90 seconds against scrubs has no weight. When teams show obvious improvement through injury/performance whatever they're factored in. They know the difference between the 10th and 50th team may not be identical to the difference between the 70th and 110th team. Forbes calls it dumb because it is designed to be dumb.

I'd never argue there's a "perfect" metric out there, or that the NET isn't far better than the RPI or old-guy eye tests alone. But the embracing of the NET to the degree we're seeing now is not, even remotely, justified by the moderate improvement it's provided. And "just be so good it's not a factor" is an equally horrible defense, as is "oh well the committee will adjust for stuff the NET leaves out once the season is over" because they are absolutely not digging deep enough into the entire season of adjustments that would be needed to account for that.
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Yep. I love analytics. I have a Masters in statistics and write, run, and interpret models all the time. But the NET is problematic for the reasons you list, and the quad system is a joke.
 
Man it feels good to win these types of games again. The problem is going to be when we finally lose one and how the team reacts when we are doing our R2D2 metrics and they say that Wake, due to the loss, is no longer a bubble team.

As others have said, the addition of Reid makes this a different team. He has not been as good as I hoped him to be, but he's playing defense and rebounding for the most part, which is what we need in the middle. He just needs to stop with the dumb fouls because when he is out, it is noticeable.

A bit concerned about Carr's lack of offense in the last two games. Yes, he had the big three in the last game, and I'm not seeing any signs of injury. It's too early to have a late season fatigue slump, so I'll just chalk it up to a couple meh games.

Boopie continues to impress. No way in hell did I think he'd contribute the way he has. He has been nothing short of remarkable. Plus he's just as entertaining when he isn't taking it to the basket and is instead chucking up threes in a way similar to how I did in 8th grade when I didn't have the upper body strength to get it to the basket. It's comical, except his go in half the time and mine never did.

Love Cam doing Cam things, even when he misses some kind of key shot from two feet that looks easy but isn't. The guy has been an aggressive baller since Day One, unafraid of anything. He just continues to improve incrementally, and this year it has been clear that he worked on his three ball in the offseason. I think he was 0-6 from 2 yesterday, though.
 
Rafi said:
Yep. I love analytics. I have a Masters in statistics and write, run, and interpret models all the time. But the NET is problematic for the reasons you list, and the quad system is a joke.
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correct.
 
EatLeadCommie said:
Man it feels good to win these types of games again. The problem is going to be when we finally lose one and how the team reacts when we are doing our R2D2 metrics and they say that Wake, due to the loss, is no longer a bubble team.

As others have said, the addition of Reid makes this a different team. He has not been as good as I hoped him to be, but he's playing defense and rebounding for the most part, which is what we need in the middle. He just needs to stop with the dumb fouls because when he is out, it is noticeable.

A bit concerned about Carr's lack of offense in the last two games. Yes, he had the big three in the last game, and I'm not seeing any signs of injury. It's too early to have a late season fatigue slump, so I'll just chalk it up to a couple meh games.

Boopie continues to impress. No way in hell did I think he'd contribute the way he has. He has been nothing short of remarkable. Plus he's just as entertaining when he isn't taking it to the basket and is instead chucking up threes in a way similar to how I did in 8th grade when I didn't have the upper body strength to get it to the basket. It's comical, except his go in half the time and mine never did.

Love Cam doing Cam things, even when he misses some kind of key shot from two feet that looks easy but isn't. The guy has been an aggressive baller since Day One, unafraid of anything. He just continues to improve incrementally, and this year it has been clear that he worked on his three ball in the offseason. I think he was 0-6 from 2 yesterday, though.
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Cam plays like he's got a jar of Icy Hot in his underwear. His energy is the grease that keeps the engine running.
 
CONeill said:
I mean ... I've got zero issues with putting 5 shooters on the floor at any and all times. Insert the "to me, that's cinema" meme.

Was more so saying to Salty that if you're wanting 5s to go to the low block every possession, the game is moving in the opposite direction. The "Wake is going to live with the occasional 3-pointer missed" from those guys fails to mention those guys are obviously capable of hitting those shots -- my bad on that.
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I get where NBA game is going but my comment is more what is best for Wake and Efton for results in our games. Efton is too big and not quite the quickness and dribble ability to be that NBA 5, but could dominate if he went the Timmy D route to play in post and dominate the paint the whole game long. Efton actually is super efficient like Timmy in that you don’t think they are doing much until you see another double double in the stats and he has that slow and methodical style like Timmy where if he used his size he could create a lot of easy shots for himself and others. And I would wager most nba gms would not turn down a Timmy D today if a player like him Came along. And just think Efton can be super dominant as a more traditional 5 and think he will be meh as a Euro 5 and really waste his size and strengths on perimeter. Just glad he got down in paint in OT as he was the diff to get us the W.
 
Harpua said:
NET is god awful. Wake is at 47. Who is just in front of them? San Francisco. An 11-4 team coming off a hard fought 4 point win over Pacific. They also lost to Grand Canyon this season. If we lose out on the tournament based on some metrics/algorithm/model bs this year I’m gonna lose it.
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And 5 Mountain West teams.
 
EatLeadCommie said:
Man it feels good to win these types of games again. The problem is going to be when we finally lose one and how the team reacts when we are doing our R2D2 metrics and they say that Wake, due to the loss, is no longer a bubble team.

As others have said, the addition of Reid makes this a different team. He has not been as good as I hoped him to be, but he's playing defense and rebounding for the most part, which is what we need in the middle. He just needs to stop with the dumb fouls because when he is out, it is noticeable.

A bit concerned about Carr's lack of offense in the last two games. Yes, he had the big three in the last game, and I'm not seeing any signs of injury. It's too early to have a late season fatigue slump, so I'll just chalk it up to a couple meh games.

Boopie continues to impress. No way in hell did I think he'd contribute the way he has. He has been nothing short of remarkable. Plus he's just as entertaining when he isn't taking it to the basket and is instead chucking up threes in a way similar to how I did in 8th grade when I didn't have the upper body strength to get it to the basket. It's comical, except his go in half the time and mine never did.

Love Cam doing Cam things, even when he misses some kind of key shot from two feet that looks easy but isn't. The guy has been an aggressive baller since Day One, unafraid of anything. He just continues to improve incrementally, and this year it has been clear that he worked on his three ball in the offseason. I think he was 0-6 from 2 yesterday, though.
Click to expand...
I think it is more Carr adjusting to being the 4th or 5th option on our O, as well as deferring to Efton with his presence inside now that he is playing more and focusing his game on D and rebounding and getting baskets in natural flow instead of trying to force shots. He definitely passed on some open 3s I would have liked to see him take but he is doing work on boards and racking up assists with 8 rebs and 5 assist along with 7 points. That is great work and not your normal stats for a 4 but another big reason for our W. I think he will get more comfortable with Eaton’s presence and will score more as needed especially when matchups work in his favor.
 
Oddly enough, I think that dominant, low post 5s could become more common in college despite the tendency towards NBA style offenses in college. Why? Because the mobile, 3 pt shooting centers will leave college after a year or two and there aren't that many to begin with (hence their value). Low post 5s won't get the attention from the NBA and with NIL competing with European salaries, more of them will stay until they are wiley veterans and dominate a la Bacot.
 
I mean the MWC has five teams with 2 or fewer losses and all of them played a harder OOC schedule than Wake. Think it’s fair that they’ve got 5 top 50 NET teams or whatever.

Last year SDSU played for a National title.
 
That’s a really nice stat line for Carr.

Is Carr the new Jamaal Levy?

Big E = F350
Cp3/JGray/Downey = Boop/Sallis/Hildreth?

Reverse the nutpunch?


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