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MBB Game 14: VT Hokies @ LJVM - Saturday Noon - Regional Sports Networks

Yeah I think they use the Bill James “safe score” for cut off which, barring miraculous comebacks, is a good choice.

I’d have to see the analysis you’re talking about 2016 because even if there were 8 minutes of “garbage time” in one game that’s still a very small percentage of total possessions for the season from an efficiency perspective
 
thatguy2016 said:
This 1000%

Also I demonstrated last year that garbage time in the UL game, when the bench, including walkons, was outscored something like 11-2, cost us something like 11 places in KP at the time. Probably had a similar impact on NET.
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I had trouble believing this, so I dug into it a bit.

Wake won at home against Louisville by 22, after being up 32.

Screenshot_20230103_083459_Chrome.jpg

WF's ranking improved from 38 to 37.

Louisville played Virginia Tech in their very next game. Virginia Tech won at home by 32 points. (Which happened to be their largest lead of the game).

Screenshot_20230103_083616_Chrome.jpg

VT's ranking improved from 33 to 28.



So, that evidence would indicate that Wake squandered ~4 ranking spots by playing the walk-ons against Louisville. That's more than I would have thought. Hindsight is 20/20, but that decision may have been pretty impactful on where WF wound up.

.... I know, I know. There's a ton of external variables (other teams games, etc)... but that's a pretty direct comparison.
 
I don't really see any reason for walkons to play vs. ACC teams. Margin of victory matters, coaches know this by now.
 
vtwhat etc said:
I had trouble believing this, so I dug into it a bit.

Wake won at home against Louisville by 22, after being up 32.

View attachment 2413

WF's ranking improved from 38 to 37.

Louisville played Virginia Tech in their very next game. Virginia Tech won at home by 32 points. (Which happened to be their largest lead of the game).

View attachment 2414

VT's ranking improved from 33 to 28.



So, that evidence would indicate that Wake squandered ~4 ranking spots by playing the walk-ons against Louisville. That's more than I would have thought. Hindsight is 20/20, but that decision may have been pretty impactful on where WF wound up.

.... I know, I know. There's a ton of external variables (other teams games, etc)... but that's a pretty direct comparison.
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I posted the crude analysis at the time, but broadly, WF's efficiency for the first 36 minutes of the game was 1.484 on offense, 1.016 on defense

Then the bench came in and got outscored 13-4 in 8 possessions, so the end of game efficiencies were 1.375 and 1.069, for a decrease in net efficiency of .162

that was the 30th game, so it impacted WF's relative efficiency roughly .54 per 100 possessions. How that impacts the rating depends on how tightly bunched the teams are in KP, and at that time, WF was at the bottom of a group of very tightly bunched teams. .54 would move WF up 6 spots in KP right now, and my memory is that it was more last spring (no way to know for sure unless someone has a screengrab of the 3/2/2022 KP ratings)
 
PaddyWF said:
I don't really see any reason for walkons to play vs. ACC teams. Margin of victory matters, coaches know this by now.
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The honorable thing would be for the opposing coach to put his walkons into the game when he sees the winning coach doing it.
 
We shot 12/35 from 2's and won an ACC game over a top 30 KP team. That's pretty crazy. Our inability to finish at the rim is going to cost us a couple of games this year I fear.
 
PaddyWF said:
I don't really see any reason for walkons to play vs. ACC teams. Margin of victory matters, coaches know this by now.
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I totally get where you're coming from, but an injury to a starter during garbage time is still way more damaging than losing a couple of spots in KP.
 
that's one thing that makes KP and the like lame as hell. you have a big lead in a conference game and you can't get your walk-ons in to share in the beatdown?
 
Deacsfan27 said:
We shot 12/35 from 2's and won an ACC game over a top 30 KP team. That's pretty crazy. Our inability to finish at the rim is going to cost us a couple of games this year I fear.
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They completely took away the lobs to Marsh, which have been our highest percentage play, but I thought we got better looks from 3 than we did against Duke and it resulted in a higher percentage.
 
BarcaDeac said:
that's one thing that makes KP and the like lame as hell. you have a big lead in a conference game and you can't get your walk-ons in to share in the beatdown?
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I mean you CAN, but you just also acknowledge that it may make a small difference overall. Which I mean to some degree makes sense. KP is evaluating a team on how they performed on every possession across an entire season.
 
Just tortured myself by glancing at the final KenPom rankings for last year…still hurts.
 
wakelaw13 said:
They completely took away the lobs to Marsh, which have been our highest percentage play, but I thought we got better looks from 3 than we did against Duke and it resulted in a higher percentage.
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We have roasted them on the pick and roll the last two games we've played.

Appleby feasted against Pedulla and his subpar lateral foot speed.
 
Appleby remains the top rated ACC player in Torvik's individual ratings (which I believe is points over replacement player per game) at 5.7. Wong, Bacot, Pedulla, and Tyson round out the top five.

KenPom's All ACC team is: Filipowski, Bacot, Wong, Pedulla, and Appleby. So pretty good overlap there. Filipowski is 27th in Torvik's ratings so I'm not sure what explains the major difference there.
 
Playing walk-ons in the last minute of blow-outs doesn't have that much of an impact for the season. Also, went back to the L'ville box score and only two walk-ons played in that game:

Miles Lester played 3 minutes (and hit a 3) and
Anthony Mathis played 1 minute.

That was it. Scholarship players played every other minute for WF in that game.

The example above with the impact on KP rankings for VT versus WF likely had other factors impacting the rankings as the results of all your opponents (and everyone else's opponents) impacts the rankings everyday. For example, if WF doesn't play for week, but all its opponents win, WF will rise in the rankings; if they lose, WF will drop. What hurts WF this year was struggling at home against #225 App State.
 
Pilchard said:
Playing walk-ons in the last minute of blow-outs doesn't have that much of an impact for the season. Also, went back to the L'ville box score and only two walk-ons played in that game:

Miles Lester played 3 minutes (and hit a 3) and
Anthony Mathis played 1 minute.

That was it. Scholarship players played every other minute for WF in that game.

The example above with the impact on KP rankings for VT versus WF likely had other factors impacting the rankings as the results of all your opponents (and everyone else's opponents) impacts the rankings everyday. For example, if WF doesn't play for week, but all its opponents win, WF will rise in the rankings; if they lose, WF will drop. What hurts WF this year was struggling at home against #225 App State.
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Right. That's what folks repeatedly don't understand and is Groundhog Day every year explaining. Wins and losses matter for the record and for committee purposes, but they don't matter at all in efficency rankings
 
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