Pilchard
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Sorry to do this early, but the GA Southern/Buffalo Camelia Bowl is not doing it for me.
On Saturday at noon, the 11-2 (1-1) #29 Virginia Tech Hokies visit WF to start a string of two ACC games a week for our Deacs until mid-February. A win over VT would give WF it's 4th win in a tough stretch of seven games from November 29th on (WF plays at UNC next) and would add to WF's season resume'.
Here is the report on VT:
2022-23 Hokies: Mike Young has guided the Hokies to a solid start to this season with top 100 wins over #34 Penn State, #30 OK State, #59 Dayton and #20 UNC. One key note to the start of the VT season as while they are 11-2, the Hokies are 0-2 on the road having played their two worst games of the season in their opponents' arena, losing @ #95 Pat Kelsey coached Charleston and @ #163 BC in OT (coached by former Charleston Coach Earl Grant). So, while VT has looked strong at home and on a neutral court, they have struggled on the road. Also, VT is not a deep team (#350 in bench minutes), and during the loss at BC, the Hokies lost Hunter Cattoor to an arm injury. From reports, it appears that Cattoor will miss several games, including Saturday's tilt at WF. If Catoor is out, VT will be missing a key piece, as Cattoor is averaging 13 ppg and is their best three point shooter.
The Analytics:
Elite offense:
Decent Defense:
Overall:
#350 in bench minutes (WF is #202)
#239 in strength of schedule to date (WF is #112)
#152 in height (WF is #35)
#103 in D-1 experience (WF is #71)
#282 in tempo (WF is #97)
The Hokie lineup:
With Cattoor likely out 4 starters are known:
Bench:
Score Projection: Both KP and Torvik project a 73-71 VT win, but those projections don't factor in the Cattoor injury. With Cattoor playing, VT is brutal to defend as they have 3 elite three point shooters (Cattor, Pedula and Basile) causing teams to spread the floor, which lead to outrageously good 2 PT shooting percentages for VT's bigs. With Cattoor out and Collins in, that formula should not be as effective as WF should have another man that can help protect the paint. Offensively, WF typically shoots better from 3 at home, and the time off should help Davien heal and Tyree rest. Get the feeling that WF's three point game may thrive with the time off and in the familiar home environment. Defensively, WF will need a big to stay with Basile outside the paint.
Young is a solid coach, and he wants this game as VT is off a terrible loss at BC, and WF worked VT in Blacksburg last year. Even so, without Cattoor, WF is the bigger, deeper and more talented team. WF is also at home. Will be interested to see what the line is, but if this game is a pick or WF is getting points, will be on the Deacs. Would also lean to the under if the total is 143 or over as VT will try to play even slower with Cattoor out and a short rotation. Getting this game would be huge, as after playin at UNC next Wednesday, WF will be favored in its next 4 ACC games after that.
On Saturday at noon, the 11-2 (1-1) #29 Virginia Tech Hokies visit WF to start a string of two ACC games a week for our Deacs until mid-February. A win over VT would give WF it's 4th win in a tough stretch of seven games from November 29th on (WF plays at UNC next) and would add to WF's season resume'.
Here is the report on VT:
2022-23 Hokies: Mike Young has guided the Hokies to a solid start to this season with top 100 wins over #34 Penn State, #30 OK State, #59 Dayton and #20 UNC. One key note to the start of the VT season as while they are 11-2, the Hokies are 0-2 on the road having played their two worst games of the season in their opponents' arena, losing @ #95 Pat Kelsey coached Charleston and @ #163 BC in OT (coached by former Charleston Coach Earl Grant). So, while VT has looked strong at home and on a neutral court, they have struggled on the road. Also, VT is not a deep team (#350 in bench minutes), and during the loss at BC, the Hokies lost Hunter Cattoor to an arm injury. From reports, it appears that Cattoor will miss several games, including Saturday's tilt at WF. If Catoor is out, VT will be missing a key piece, as Cattoor is averaging 13 ppg and is their best three point shooter.
The Analytics:
Elite offense:
- #23 in offensive efficiency
- #6 in offensive TO%
- #29 in 2 PT FG% (56%)
- #36 in effective FG
Decent Defense:
- #7 in defensive FTA/FGA (so, the Hokies don't foul, but they don't get fouled)
- #44 in effective FG% D (46%)
- #82 in defending the 2 (47%)
- #51 in defending the 3 (30%)
Overall:
#350 in bench minutes (WF is #202)
#239 in strength of schedule to date (WF is #112)
#152 in height (WF is #35)
#103 in D-1 experience (WF is #71)
#282 in tempo (WF is #97)
The Hokie lineup:
With Cattoor likely out 4 starters are known:
- G 6-2 Sean Pedulla: low rated recruit has exploded at VT; soph leads VT in scoring (17.3), assists, FTs, three point attempts (37%), minutes; 117 "O" rating; has scored in double figures in every game; VT is completely dependent on Pedulla (has played more minutes than Appleby... think about that... and now his back court mate, Cattoor is out; Pedulla played 44 minutes in the OT loss at BC).
- G/F 6-5 Darius Maddux; junior, who had a minor role until this year; 9 ppg; 4 rpg; only 28% from 3; 87% from the line, 103 O rating
- F 6-7 Justin Mutts; 3rd year at VT, also played at High Point and Delaware, turns 24 next week; leads in boards 8 ppg; 13 ppg; 60% from 2 and 47% from 3 (but doesn't take many - 7 made on the season), 111 O rating
- F 6-9 Grant Basile; coveted Wright State transfer, a big who can shoot (they have been trouble for WF); 40% from 3; 14 points and 6 boards a game; leads VT in blocks, 118 O rating
Bench:
- G 6-4 MJ Collins: frosh, likely starter if Cattoor does not play; big drop off from 3 -- 15% (4 for 26 on the season); career high 8 versus UNC; scoreless in 22 minutes against BC last game, 97 O rating
- F/C 6-10 Lynn Kidd: Clemson transfer; didn't play much in 2022; had been a solid bench piece this year 122 O rating; 64% from 2; doesn't shoot 3s
- F 6-9 Mylyjael Poteat: from Reidsville, NC; Rice transfer; has played well in limited minutes: 60% from 2; 86% from the line; doesn't shoot 3s
Score Projection: Both KP and Torvik project a 73-71 VT win, but those projections don't factor in the Cattoor injury. With Cattoor playing, VT is brutal to defend as they have 3 elite three point shooters (Cattor, Pedula and Basile) causing teams to spread the floor, which lead to outrageously good 2 PT shooting percentages for VT's bigs. With Cattoor out and Collins in, that formula should not be as effective as WF should have another man that can help protect the paint. Offensively, WF typically shoots better from 3 at home, and the time off should help Davien heal and Tyree rest. Get the feeling that WF's three point game may thrive with the time off and in the familiar home environment. Defensively, WF will need a big to stay with Basile outside the paint.
Young is a solid coach, and he wants this game as VT is off a terrible loss at BC, and WF worked VT in Blacksburg last year. Even so, without Cattoor, WF is the bigger, deeper and more talented team. WF is also at home. Will be interested to see what the line is, but if this game is a pick or WF is getting points, will be on the Deacs. Would also lean to the under if the total is 143 or over as VT will try to play even slower with Cattoor out and a short rotation. Getting this game would be huge, as after playin at UNC next Wednesday, WF will be favored in its next 4 ACC games after that.
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