• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

MBB Game 15: FSU @ LJVM: Tuesday 7 pm RSN - Bally Sports

Pilchard

Pilchard

Well-known member
Joined
May 3, 2011
Messages
17,191
Reaction score
6,469
Our Deacs return to W-S from a disappointing two game road swing to open a 3 game ACC home-stand starting with Tuesday's tilt against the Seminoles. Here is the Nole Scouting Report:

2021-22 Season: FSU arrives in Winston with a 7-4 (1-1) record and #42 ranking. FSU entered the season as the consensus #2 team in the conference, but the start to the Noles' season has seen more valleys than peaks. FSU has played 4 top 100 teams so far, and they have lost each of those games (by 16 to #28 Florida; by 28 to #3 Purdue; by 3 to #70 Syracuse; by 1 to #95 S. Carolina -- two of those teams are ranked below WF, and the Deacs reportedly dominated S. Carolina in a pre-season scrimmage). In addition to FSU's consistent failures against the top teams on their schedule, COVID hit the Noles in mid-December as they had 3 games either cancelled or postponed between December 15 and January 1. Leonard Hamilton advised that, in addition to missing those games, the Noles weren't even able to practice until late last week. Despite the layoff, when the Noles returned to play this past Saturday, FSU escaped Raleigh with a tight 83-81 win over the Wolfpack (BTW, NC State has been awful so far, but Dereon Sebron has just exploded; he had 32 points and 7 assists against FSU; he was a bench piece last year on a bad team, and he's now looking like an NBA first round pick -- seriously). Staying in NC, the Noles now head down I-40 to face our Deacs tomorrow night.

To start the season, FSU's style of play has been erratic. In their 11 games, FSU has scored 81 or more 5 times, including 105 and 97 point games, but the Noles have also been held to 65 or less 5 times. Weird. Cumulatively, FSU has been a better defensive team (#34) than an offensive team (#65). On defense, the long (biggest team in college basketball) and athletic Noles cause turnovers (#16 in TO %) and they block shots (#17). Despite their size, opponents have hurt FSU on the offensive boards (#268 in preventing offensive rebounds) and have shot the ball well against FSU (#171 in effective FG% D; #217 in three point defense). Offensively, FSU has shot the ball reasonably well (35% from 3 -- #88; 52% effective FG% -- #82), but FSU does not take care of the ball (#221 in offensive TO%). If the game comes down to free throws, FSU is a poor FT shooting team (69% - #208). As always, FSU has a deep bench (#83 in bench minutes); in the close win over the Pack, FSU played 10 guys. We play 7.5.

The Roster:

Starters: on Saturday, FSU started:

G 6-4 Sr. Rayquan Evans: missed two games early in the year; hasn't scored in double figures since the opener: 22/16 assist to to ratio; struggled with TOs early, but 0 TOs over the last two games
G 6-5 So. Caleb Mills: Houston transfer; missed almost entire season in 2021; 2nd in scoring and assists; leads team in steals; 35% from 3
G/F 6-6 Sr. Anthony Polite: 10 ppg; 3 point shooting is down (44% in 2021; 29% in 2022); erratic scorer: scored in double figures once since November 24, in that game, Polite scored 25
F 6-9 Sr. Malik Osborn: #10 offensive player in the country according to KP "O" ratings; 19 points on Saturday; leading scorer 13 ppg and rebounder 7 rpg; 50% from 3
C 7-1 Fr. John Butler: another 7 foot Nole; plays limited minutes, but effective; 39% from 3; 64% from 2; never goes to the line (2 FTs on the season)

Bench:

G 6-6 Fr. Jalen Warley: 5 star recruit; plays limited minutes; yet to score more than 8 in a game; only 5 three point attempts on the season
F 6-7 So. Cam'Ron Fletcher: KY transfer; coming off his two best games of the season; 12 against Lipscomb and 14 against State; 39% from 2
F 6-7 Fr. Matthew Cleveland: 5 star recruit; ridiculous athlete; struggled from 3 (1 for 13), 53% from 2; 52% from the FT line
F 6-8 Sr. Wyatt Wilkes: feels like he's been at FSU forever... played with NBA vet Terence Mann in 2017-8; minutes diminishing as younger players have taken his minutes
C 7-4 Jr. Naheem McLeod: where does Hamilton find all of these 7 footers? 71% from 2; 33% from the line; foul him if he's about to shoot

Projection: KP projects a 73-72 WF win in 71 possessions. Every year when breaking down opponents, I am always stunned by the extent of the Noles' talent, depth and athleticism. How is this team 7-4 with ZERO top 100 wins? Well, they don't take care of the ball, and sometimes, it's harder to coach a team with so many different parts. Also, outside of Osborn, FSU has no "go to scorer". That said, FSU is the kind of team that can embarrass it's opponent when the team is clicking (last year FSU beat NC State by 32; #19 UVA by 21 and #8 Colorado by 18 in the NCAA tournament, among several dominating wins against excellent teams; then again, last year's talent deficient WF team took the Noles to OT in Tallahassee). FSU hasn't clicked yet this year, and the team may still be in a COVID fog as they have had only a couple of practices in the last 3 weeks. With FSU picking up the pace after playing several slog type of games early, think that this game will be a track meet, and Forbes likes to play up tempo. Also, FSU is a better offensive team that it has played, and think that WF will get to the line more often at home after getting the short-end of the calls this past week. Last season, WF and FSU combined for 160 points in regulation; this year's Deacs team is massively better offensively than last year's team. If the total is 145 as KP projects, I like the over. Before researching the game, I liked the WF side to win, but FSU is a slumbering giant. When they put it all together, yikes. Don't think that it will happen tomorrow, but FSU is verging on becoming a play-on team as there is little doubt that they will be rated higher than #42 by the end of the season.
 
Last edited:
Wish we had more time before playing this game. The team looked worn out on Saturday.
 
Headed up from CLT for this one- can’t wait. Go Deacs!
 
I have no feel for our team at the moment (clearly, as I bet on us to beat Miami).

Hoping we don't put FSU on our "Get Right" program.

I don't buy the excuse that the team is tired. Just came off a Christmas / COVID layoff, and Forbes has been on record as saying he likes to play a pretty consistent cadence of games once the season gets going. Sure, I have concerns about our lack of depth, but I don't think anybody should be running out of gas at this point in the year. To me, it's just about effort on the defensive end and ball movement on offense.
 
I like our chances as long as there isn’t massive foul trouble and/or FT disparities.
 
I am not making any excuses about the team being tired.

I am concerned about the team getting tired, particularly with ManMan being asked to do so much on the offensive end, and with what has been essentially a 6-man rotation with brief, ineffective play from two other guys.
 
ManMan has a tendency to leave shots short, but I think that's more of a ball arc issue than tired legs.

Semi-related: He always seems to be long or short, but generally on target. I don't know what that means, but I've noticed it relative to other players.

Also, it's a real issue when Williams is on the bench late in games. I know it is tough to play him with 3-4 fouls because he's so physical on offense and could get whistled on most any play, but we're only hurting ourselves by having him on the bench with under 10 minutes to go. Was really obvious during the Louisville game that we were trying to buy a few extra minutes with him on the bench, but it is a difficult trade-off.
 
Still good odds to get $10 walk up cheap seats for me and the kid?
 
On his radio show, Forbes is pretty upset about the free throw issues, and has stats that back it up in terms of a driving team, and not getting to the line. He said the Deacs have outscored the last 2 opponents in the lane and overall from the field by quite a bit. He mentioned he had several conversations with "higher ups". It's really curious the way the refs have called the last 2 games. The stats that don't justify the whistles.
 
If the Deacons play hard nosed defense and move the ball on offense they will win. If they don't do both they will lose. This team is not talented enough to falter in either area and win against conference competition. If they do both they can beat any team in the conference. Their effort and execution will determine their season.
 
We're going to hunker down (covid) and not go to the game tonight. I've got 3 tickets if anybody wants them, PM me your cell number to transfer.

Edit: claimed (sorry to not alert earlier, got busy with meetings)
 
Last edited:
Winston-Salem Journal has a brief story on the game today. “Deacs look for 1st ACC win.” Mentions they have an 0-3 ACC record.

I can understand forgetting about the VT game. But wouldn’t you think they would just look up the record before publishing?
 
dot com said:
We're going to hunker down (covid) and not go to the game tonight. I've got 3 tickets if anybody wants them, PM me your cell number to transfer.
Click to expand...

I'll hit you up if the 2 offered by wfunme are gone. Thanks!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top