Pilchard
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Tomorrow night, our Deacs tip-off against Florida State in an ACC conference game even though the Noles desperately wish this was an OOC game. Tomorrow's game ends of stretch of 7 straight home games (and three straight home ACC games) for the Seminoles.
Here is a breakdown of the FSU season to date:
8-6 (2-1) #104: The Noles' roller-coaster season began with a 4-1 start which included wins over #99 UNLV (by 12) and #33 Colorado which pushed the Noles up to #70. Then, the Noles stumbled through a 2-5 stretch which included losses to #72 UGA, #8 UNC (by 8), #47 SMU (by 9), #147 S. Florida ((by 16) and #146 Lipscomb (by 3) - during the stretch FSU lost the enigmatic Cam'Ron Fletcher for the season. Most recently, since the start of 2024, the Noles are 2-0 beating #119 GT (by 11) and #68 VT (by 3), raising the Noles ACC record to 2-1. In Saturday night's win over VT, FSU led by 10 with 2:13 left before almost choking away the game. Against VT, FSU won despite the Hokies out-scoring the Noles by 24 from three. FSU's defensive pressure forced 16 VT TO's and the Noles killed the Hokies inside (50-28 edge from 2).
Analytics:
WF Offense ------------------- FSU Defense
Adj. Eff: 116 #23 -------------- 100 #74
Eff. FG% 55 #32 --------------- 50 #161
TO% 15 #32 ------------------ 21 #38
3 PT% 38 #22 ----------------- 34 #214
2 PT% 54 #73 ----------------- 49 #140
FSU Offense ------------------- WF Defense
Adj. Eff. 107 #36 --------------- 101 #83
Eff. FG% 49 -------------------- 48 #85
TO% 17 #124 ------------------ 18 #147
3 PT% 33 #194 ---------------- 34 #190
2 PT% 49 #215 ---------------- 46 #59
In ACC play, FSU has been fouling on defense at very high rate as opponents FTA/FGA is a conference worst 46%. WF shoots FTs well (5th in the nation in FT%); so, WF's success at the line could be big. Speaking of big, as always, FSU is HUGE. Leonard Hamilton's recruiting philosophy has always emphasized size, and again, this year, FSU is #1 in the nation in average height. FSU also employs its bench to a far greater degree than the Deacs (#24 versus #327 in bench minutes).
Roster: In the win over VT, FSU started:
6-5 5th year Darin Green: started at UCF; 2nd in scoring (13 ppg); 41% from three; leads team in three attempts and minutes
6-7 3rd year Jamir Watkins: VCU transfer; 1st in scoring (13 ppg) and assists (3 apg); active defender; leads team in steals and boards
6-7 3rd year Jalen Warley: 2 year starter; doesn't shoot the three; and shoots 37% from 2; 2.5 to 1 assist to TO ratio; was the #34 player in the nation coming out of HS; has been a disappointment
6-9 2nd year De'Ante Green: from NC; starter but gets limited minutes; played 10 minutes or less in the last 2 ACC games; no threat from three; 7 ppg 3 apg
6-11 2nd year Baba Miller: top 50 HS player from Spain; became eligible midway through last season; 1st in blocks; 2nd in boards; 8 ppg; 60% from 2; 41 % from the FT line; 31% from three
Against VT, 5 other players logged at least 9 minutes off the bench. Their leading scorer off the bench is G'town transfer 6-3 Primo Spears 12 ppg, but he's a dreadful 19% from three; FSU brings three 6-10 trees off the bench Cam Corhen (9 ppg), Brown transfer Jaylen Gainey (11 points against VT : 64% from 2) and frosh Taylor Bol Bowen (64% from 2). Additionally, FSU also utilizes LaSalle transfer 6-5 Josh Nickelberry. If that name sounds familar, last season, Nickelberry lit up WF last November in an early tournament with 26 points including 6 for 11 from three; after a hot early start with FSU, lately Nickelberry has been a non-factor for the Noles averaging less than 2 ppg over the last 5 games.
The projection:
KP: WF 77 FSU 74
Torvik: WF 76 FSU 75
Since the start of December, WF is the #21 team in the nation. FSU is #143 during that stretch. WF is simply the better basketball team right now. That said, winning on the ACC road is always hard, and FSU has the size and talent to beat anyone; they led UNC by 20 in Chapel in the 2nd half, before an epic collapse. The Miami game was a huge one for WF, and this isn't the best spot for the Deacs; so, really there is no result that would be surprising. Would lean WF, but the Deacs need to protect the ball as FSU has trouble scoring when they aren't forcing TOs. If the total is 151 as KP and Torvik project, I would lean under, but FSU is a very volatile team; they have played three games with point totals 134 or less, and three games with point total of 161 or more. In the end, if the game is close as projected, got to like WF's guards and coaching acumen over FSU's.
Here is a breakdown of the FSU season to date:
8-6 (2-1) #104: The Noles' roller-coaster season began with a 4-1 start which included wins over #99 UNLV (by 12) and #33 Colorado which pushed the Noles up to #70. Then, the Noles stumbled through a 2-5 stretch which included losses to #72 UGA, #8 UNC (by 8), #47 SMU (by 9), #147 S. Florida ((by 16) and #146 Lipscomb (by 3) - during the stretch FSU lost the enigmatic Cam'Ron Fletcher for the season. Most recently, since the start of 2024, the Noles are 2-0 beating #119 GT (by 11) and #68 VT (by 3), raising the Noles ACC record to 2-1. In Saturday night's win over VT, FSU led by 10 with 2:13 left before almost choking away the game. Against VT, FSU won despite the Hokies out-scoring the Noles by 24 from three. FSU's defensive pressure forced 16 VT TO's and the Noles killed the Hokies inside (50-28 edge from 2).
Analytics:
WF Offense ------------------- FSU Defense
Adj. Eff: 116 #23 -------------- 100 #74
Eff. FG% 55 #32 --------------- 50 #161
TO% 15 #32 ------------------ 21 #38
3 PT% 38 #22 ----------------- 34 #214
2 PT% 54 #73 ----------------- 49 #140
FSU Offense ------------------- WF Defense
Adj. Eff. 107 #36 --------------- 101 #83
Eff. FG% 49 -------------------- 48 #85
TO% 17 #124 ------------------ 18 #147
3 PT% 33 #194 ---------------- 34 #190
2 PT% 49 #215 ---------------- 46 #59
In ACC play, FSU has been fouling on defense at very high rate as opponents FTA/FGA is a conference worst 46%. WF shoots FTs well (5th in the nation in FT%); so, WF's success at the line could be big. Speaking of big, as always, FSU is HUGE. Leonard Hamilton's recruiting philosophy has always emphasized size, and again, this year, FSU is #1 in the nation in average height. FSU also employs its bench to a far greater degree than the Deacs (#24 versus #327 in bench minutes).
Roster: In the win over VT, FSU started:
6-5 5th year Darin Green: started at UCF; 2nd in scoring (13 ppg); 41% from three; leads team in three attempts and minutes
6-7 3rd year Jamir Watkins: VCU transfer; 1st in scoring (13 ppg) and assists (3 apg); active defender; leads team in steals and boards
6-7 3rd year Jalen Warley: 2 year starter; doesn't shoot the three; and shoots 37% from 2; 2.5 to 1 assist to TO ratio; was the #34 player in the nation coming out of HS; has been a disappointment
6-9 2nd year De'Ante Green: from NC; starter but gets limited minutes; played 10 minutes or less in the last 2 ACC games; no threat from three; 7 ppg 3 apg
6-11 2nd year Baba Miller: top 50 HS player from Spain; became eligible midway through last season; 1st in blocks; 2nd in boards; 8 ppg; 60% from 2; 41 % from the FT line; 31% from three
Against VT, 5 other players logged at least 9 minutes off the bench. Their leading scorer off the bench is G'town transfer 6-3 Primo Spears 12 ppg, but he's a dreadful 19% from three; FSU brings three 6-10 trees off the bench Cam Corhen (9 ppg), Brown transfer Jaylen Gainey (11 points against VT : 64% from 2) and frosh Taylor Bol Bowen (64% from 2). Additionally, FSU also utilizes LaSalle transfer 6-5 Josh Nickelberry. If that name sounds familar, last season, Nickelberry lit up WF last November in an early tournament with 26 points including 6 for 11 from three; after a hot early start with FSU, lately Nickelberry has been a non-factor for the Noles averaging less than 2 ppg over the last 5 games.
The projection:
KP: WF 77 FSU 74
Torvik: WF 76 FSU 75
Since the start of December, WF is the #21 team in the nation. FSU is #143 during that stretch. WF is simply the better basketball team right now. That said, winning on the ACC road is always hard, and FSU has the size and talent to beat anyone; they led UNC by 20 in Chapel in the 2nd half, before an epic collapse. The Miami game was a huge one for WF, and this isn't the best spot for the Deacs; so, really there is no result that would be surprising. Would lean WF, but the Deacs need to protect the ball as FSU has trouble scoring when they aren't forcing TOs. If the total is 151 as KP and Torvik project, I would lean under, but FSU is a very volatile team; they have played three games with point totals 134 or less, and three games with point total of 161 or more. In the end, if the game is close as projected, got to like WF's guards and coaching acumen over FSU's.
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