Pilchard
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10-4 (2-1) WF heads to UNC-ch on Wednesday night to finish a run of 7 of 8 games where WF was either a dog or favored by 1.5 or less. WF is currently 3-3 in those games with outright wins over Wisky, Duke and VT. Pretty good.
BTW, when assessing where WF currently stands, before lamenting the late game losses to LMU and LSU, got to keep mind that WF was very fortunate to beat UVU (who is up to #92 and is now the highest rated team in the WAC) and the Apps with miracle last second heroics. 10-4 for the Deacs at this point is honestly about where WF should be, given the quality of WF's opponents and WF's current talent level.
WF has 17 games left on the schedule, and Wednesday's game @#22 UNC is the 2nd toughest remaining game for WF according to KP as the Deacs have only an 18% chance to win, but there is a chance... Here is a breakdown of the 2022 National runnerups:
2022-23 Heels (KP #22; Torvik #34 -- 9-5(1-2) : The College Basketball cognoscenti wildly overrated UNC heading into the season as they rated the Heels as the #1 team in the nation because they returned 4 starters from a national runner up team. That facile analysis ignored that UNC disappointed for most of the 2022 season, as the Heels entered last season's NCAAT as an 8 seed. UNC's five game 2022 NCAAT run overcame a largely 'meh' season by UNC standards, which included a WF 98-76 (wasn't that close) blowout WF win last January.
UNC started this season playing down to last year's regular season standards as the Heels went from #1 to unranked in less than month with four straight losses. At the beginning of December, the Heels began to regain a little mojo with blowout wins over GT and Citadel, and pulling out tight games over #12 tOSU and #47 Michigan. Last time out, UNC blew a 9 point 2nd half lead in a loss at Pitt. So, the Heels head into Wednesday's game at 9-5 (1-2 in the ACC) with a lot to prove.
Analytics:
Hint like many recent UNC versions: great offense; optional defense.
#12 overall offense
Strengths:
#23 in O TO%
#14 in FT/FGA (UNC still gets the calls as 23% of their offense comes from the line)
#61 in 2 PT FG%
Weakness:
#295 in 3 PT% (31% - thanks Caleb!)
#60 overall defense
Weakness:
#325 in D TO% (UNC just does not put pressure on the opponent
Strength
#24 in opponent FT/FGA (shocker: UNC is not called for a lot of fouls)
Except for forcing no TOs and not fouling, UNC's D is mediocre in all other stats.
Team Analytics
UNC plays with a super-short bench (#361 in bench minutes)
They are tall as always: #20 in height
Experienced: #18 in D-1 experience
Tough schedule: #8 in overall schedule
6-0 at home: all wins by 13+ points
UNC plays fast on O; 16 seconds per an offensive possession (#43
Roster:
In the last second loss at Pitt, UNC started:
G 6-0 RJ Davis: 3 year starter; 16 ppg; 2nd in assists; scored in double figures every game, but one; only shooting 31% from 3
G 6-4 Caleb Love: 18 ppg; likes to shoot a lot; when he's on, UNC is formidable, but he is more often "off"' shooting 29% from 3 on the season; took a ridiculous 36 shots in the loss to Bama; ordinary 103 O rating this season.
F 6-9 Leaky Black: defensive specialist; averages 7 ppg and 6 rpg; 110 O rating; 36% from 3
F 6-11 Pete Nance: NW transfer; 5th year player; shot 46% from 3 last year; 34% this year; 66% from 2; 12 ppg and 6 rpg;
C 6-11 Armando Bacot: leads UNC in ppg (18), rpg (11), bpg and TO pg; 114 O rating; scored 22 or more each of the last 3 games
The bench:
F 6-9 Puff Johnson: missed first 3 games; has yet to make an impact; 3 ppg and 2 rpg
F 6-7 Tyler Nickel: frosh; 3 rpg; 1 rpg; 25% from 3
G 6-3 Seth Trimble: frosh; 4 star; top 50; disappointing; 91 O rating; 2 ppg; 3/2 assist/to ratio
Projection:
KP projects a 81-70 UNC win; Torvik 81-73. Would love to project a WF win, but this isn't a great spot for our Deacs. UNC is 6-0 at home (all by big margins), and WF is coming off two huge wins over Duke and VT. Also, UNC is rested as they will have had five days to think about the loss to Pitt. Also, UNC is due for some 3 point shooting improvement as Love, Davis and Nance have all shot below their career shooting percentages. With all of that said, the Deacs match up reasonably well with UNC as WF has the size to play with UNC in the paint, and WF's biggest weakness on O is turning the ball over, but UNC doesn't force any. Not going to play a side, but I like the over here. UNC trends to overs at home, and think Forbes will let WF run with the Heels. The last time these two teams played, the teams combined for 174 points. Can see a similar point total. Take the over, and if the Deacs manage to pull the upset, WF will be positioned well in the conference with the approaching soft conference slate ahead.
BTW, when assessing where WF currently stands, before lamenting the late game losses to LMU and LSU, got to keep mind that WF was very fortunate to beat UVU (who is up to #92 and is now the highest rated team in the WAC) and the Apps with miracle last second heroics. 10-4 for the Deacs at this point is honestly about where WF should be, given the quality of WF's opponents and WF's current talent level.
WF has 17 games left on the schedule, and Wednesday's game @#22 UNC is the 2nd toughest remaining game for WF according to KP as the Deacs have only an 18% chance to win, but there is a chance... Here is a breakdown of the 2022 National runnerups:
2022-23 Heels (KP #22; Torvik #34 -- 9-5(1-2) : The College Basketball cognoscenti wildly overrated UNC heading into the season as they rated the Heels as the #1 team in the nation because they returned 4 starters from a national runner up team. That facile analysis ignored that UNC disappointed for most of the 2022 season, as the Heels entered last season's NCAAT as an 8 seed. UNC's five game 2022 NCAAT run overcame a largely 'meh' season by UNC standards, which included a WF 98-76 (wasn't that close) blowout WF win last January.
UNC started this season playing down to last year's regular season standards as the Heels went from #1 to unranked in less than month with four straight losses. At the beginning of December, the Heels began to regain a little mojo with blowout wins over GT and Citadel, and pulling out tight games over #12 tOSU and #47 Michigan. Last time out, UNC blew a 9 point 2nd half lead in a loss at Pitt. So, the Heels head into Wednesday's game at 9-5 (1-2 in the ACC) with a lot to prove.
Analytics:
Hint like many recent UNC versions: great offense; optional defense.
#12 overall offense
Strengths:
#23 in O TO%
#14 in FT/FGA (UNC still gets the calls as 23% of their offense comes from the line)
#61 in 2 PT FG%
Weakness:
#295 in 3 PT% (31% - thanks Caleb!)
#60 overall defense
Weakness:
#325 in D TO% (UNC just does not put pressure on the opponent
Strength
#24 in opponent FT/FGA (shocker: UNC is not called for a lot of fouls)
Except for forcing no TOs and not fouling, UNC's D is mediocre in all other stats.
Team Analytics
UNC plays with a super-short bench (#361 in bench minutes)
They are tall as always: #20 in height
Experienced: #18 in D-1 experience
Tough schedule: #8 in overall schedule
6-0 at home: all wins by 13+ points
UNC plays fast on O; 16 seconds per an offensive possession (#43
Roster:
In the last second loss at Pitt, UNC started:
G 6-0 RJ Davis: 3 year starter; 16 ppg; 2nd in assists; scored in double figures every game, but one; only shooting 31% from 3
G 6-4 Caleb Love: 18 ppg; likes to shoot a lot; when he's on, UNC is formidable, but he is more often "off"' shooting 29% from 3 on the season; took a ridiculous 36 shots in the loss to Bama; ordinary 103 O rating this season.
F 6-9 Leaky Black: defensive specialist; averages 7 ppg and 6 rpg; 110 O rating; 36% from 3
F 6-11 Pete Nance: NW transfer; 5th year player; shot 46% from 3 last year; 34% this year; 66% from 2; 12 ppg and 6 rpg;
C 6-11 Armando Bacot: leads UNC in ppg (18), rpg (11), bpg and TO pg; 114 O rating; scored 22 or more each of the last 3 games
The bench:
F 6-9 Puff Johnson: missed first 3 games; has yet to make an impact; 3 ppg and 2 rpg
F 6-7 Tyler Nickel: frosh; 3 rpg; 1 rpg; 25% from 3
G 6-3 Seth Trimble: frosh; 4 star; top 50; disappointing; 91 O rating; 2 ppg; 3/2 assist/to ratio
Projection:
KP projects a 81-70 UNC win; Torvik 81-73. Would love to project a WF win, but this isn't a great spot for our Deacs. UNC is 6-0 at home (all by big margins), and WF is coming off two huge wins over Duke and VT. Also, UNC is rested as they will have had five days to think about the loss to Pitt. Also, UNC is due for some 3 point shooting improvement as Love, Davis and Nance have all shot below their career shooting percentages. With all of that said, the Deacs match up reasonably well with UNC as WF has the size to play with UNC in the paint, and WF's biggest weakness on O is turning the ball over, but UNC doesn't force any. Not going to play a side, but I like the over here. UNC trends to overs at home, and think Forbes will let WF run with the Heels. The last time these two teams played, the teams combined for 174 points. Can see a similar point total. Take the over, and if the Deacs manage to pull the upset, WF will be positioned well in the conference with the approaching soft conference slate ahead.
