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MBB Game 17: @ NC State -- Tuesday 7 pm ACCN

Pilchard

Pilchard

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Fresh off the beatdown of UVA, our Deacs head onto the road to challenge the NC State Wolfpack. Below is the snapshot of the Pack:

NC State 12-4 (4-1) #71. The Wolfpack stand among 4 teams tied for 2nd place in the ACC; so far, the Pack have ACC wins over @BC in OT, @ND, UVA at home and @L'ville (not exactly the most daunting conference road schedule so far) and a home loss to ACC leader UNC. NC State lost all three of their OOC games against top 100 teams (#11 BYU, #70 Ole Miss, #8 TN). Simply, the Pack have been good, but not great so far this year as their best win is at home over UVA, and the Hoos have been dominated in every road tilt to date. Even so, the game is big for both teams as a 5-1 conference start positions the game winner going forward.

Analytics:

WF Offense ========= NC State Defense (conference games only - rank is among the 15 conference games):

Adj. Eff. 112 #3 ----------- 98 #4
Eff. FG% 54 #3 ----------- 48 #4
TO% 18 #11 ------------ 15 #8
3 PT% 41 #1 -------------- 36 #9
2 PT% 50 #5 -------------- 46 #4

NC State Offense =========== WF Defense
Adj. Eff. 103 #11 ----------- 99 #5
Eff. FG% 45 #14 ----------- 48 #3
TO% 14 #4 --------------- 16 #7
3 PT% 32 #12 ------------ 41 #14
2 PT% 44 #14 ------------ 42 #3

NC State is smaller than WF (WF #62 ---- NC State #197 in average height), but more experienced than the Deacs (NCS #14 --- #165 WF in experience). State is pretty 'blah' all around, but they are slightly better than WF on defense, and pretty far behind offensively. Seems like WF fans have PTSD with their grousing about DJ Burns, but as a team, the WF 2 PT defense has a sizeable edge over the NCS 2 PT offense.

Roster: Against L'ville on Saturday, the Pack started:

6-2 4th year Michael O'Connell: Stanford transfer; leads team in assists; 1st start of the season last game and went 3 for 3 from three;
6-3 4th year Casey Morsell: started at UVA; inconsistent shooter (1 for his last 18 from three); scored 28 against BYU;
6-4 3rd year Jayden Taylor: Butler transfer; 12 ppg, but misses lots of shots (34% from two)
6-6 1st year Dennis Parker: started last 9 games; 112 O rating 36% from three; tied for the team lead in boards
6-9 5th year DJ Burns: 13 ppg and 4 rpg; has struggled in ACC play (47% from 2; 3 rpg); overrated here because of a big game against Marsh

The Pack's leading scorer, AZ State/Illinois St transfer DJ Horne came off the bench against L'ville and scored 27; Horne is shooting 44% from three; the Pack also play two transfer bigs off the bench: Clemson's Will Middlebrooks and Mizzou's Mohammed Diarra.

Projection:
KP: WF 75-74
Torvik: NCS 75-73

Road wins build an NCAAT resume, and WF is currently 1-2 on the road. Winning in Raleigh would help build that resume. In conference play, the Pack are third in the ACC in percentage of points from the FT line and WF is last in the ACC in percentage of defensive points allowed from the line (fully prepared for lots of complaining about calls); so, the key from WF will be to keep NC State from scoring free points from the line. Offensively, if WF can avoid TOs, the Deacs should be able to use their length to score inside against the Pack; also, three point shooting often regresses on the road, but the Deacs are the better shooting team. Lots of edges for WF, except the venue. Can't recommend the Deacs until WF's prove to be road warriors and agree with the analytical projections that this game will be tight and probably more low-scoring than projected as the Pack has slowed its pace in conference games.

Win this one, and the Deacs can start thinking about challenging Duke and UNC for the regular season crown. Big game. Big opportunity.
 
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Wake has already proven they are for real (with Reid). They have now graduated to the “take care of business” chapter of the season. Any loss from here on out (especially with Monsanto) is not only a disappointment but unexpected.
 
Would certainly like to see the TOs cleaned up despite the blowout against UVA. Feels like a very winnable game. I like how Essex put it…come out and take the opportunity.
 
Kind of crazy that I’ve seen some State fans saying things like they have no answer for Burns still
 
I mean we made burns look like peak Shaq last year, so until we see it I get the sentiment that he owns us.
 
Keep the turnovers down and have Reid not pick up those ticky tack fouls and we should win. Our guards are better than theirs.
 


Here's a tweet I found interesting that gives stats of how KP top 50 teams do playing against KP top 100 teams on the road. Essentially, for a team of Wake's caliber, you'd expect to win around 30-40% of those games. Wake's record in these games is currently 1-2 (Beat BC, Lost to UGA and FSU), which is pretty much exactly what you'd expect. NC State is another opportunity to add a win here.

These types of games are going to be make or break for this season. We play a bunch of road games against teams likely to finish somewhere around the top 75, which is the threshold for Q1. And we don't get many Q1 home opportunities, so we are going to have to win the road games.
 
If this were a home game, I would have a high degree of optimism. State has shot a lot and made few when I have seen them play v quality opposition. Great point by Pilch about limiting State’s trips to the line. Avoid bad fouls. Coaching advantage to Wake.
 
Over/under on how many minutes into the game before we have to bitch about Keatts being 15 ft onto the floor during play?
 
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