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MBB Game 21: @ Pitt - Wednesday - 7 pm - ACCN

Pilchard

Pilchard

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Our Deacs have 11 regular season games left. Of course, all remaining games are important at this point, but Wednesday's game at the Petersen Events Center is particularly huge because WF's opponent is also seeking to get into the NCAAT conversation, and is tied with WF the ACC Standings (WF and Pitt are currently tied for 3rd). Also, like UVA, WF only plays Pitt once; so, Wednesday's winner will hold the head to head tiebreaker for the ACCT seedings and to the extent both ultimately make it to bubble discussions, a head to head road win against another bubble team (particularly a road win) is gold. Put another way, the winner of the Pitt/WF game will be no worse that tied for 3rd in the ACC Standings heading into the weekend, the loser will likely be tied for 6th place.

13-7 (6-3) Panthers (KP #69): When the season started, Jeff Capel III was a dead man coaching. He was heading into his 5th season at Pitt, and the program was in sad shape. Before this season, Jeff Capel was 23-57 against the conference. Last year's Panther team bottomed out at 11-21 (6-15), with a litany of embarrassing losses and a string of transfers out of the program. Lack of money to pay the buy-out could only explain Capel's return for season 5.

As soon as the season started, any lingering hope for PItt was quickly extinguished as the Panthers suffered humiliating beat-downs at home to West Virginia (81-56) and on a neutral to Michigan (91-60) -- those losses by a combined 56 points have contributed to the ACC's poor analytical ranking. Just as dirt was getting tossed on JC III's coaching grave, Pitt turned it around and won 12 of its next 15 games with wins over #54 Northwestern (on the road by 29), @ NC State, @ Cuse, UNC and UVA. However, this past Saturday, Pitt scuttled a lot of that good work with a BAD home loss to #143 (7-13) to FSU. After that dreadful home performance, Pitt will be fighting for its season on Wednesday.

The Analytical Matchup (ACC ranks):

Offense:

Efficiency: Pitt 106.7 (#7) - WF 111.9 (#1)
Effective FG%: Pitt 51.8 (#4) - WF 54.7 (#1)
3 PT%: Pitt 32.1 (#9) - WF 39.1 (#2)
2 PT%: Pitt 54.8 (#1) - WF 51.6 (#5)

Defense:

Efficiency: Pitt 101.6 (#7) - WF 107.1 (#11)
Effective FG% Pitt 47.6% (#3) - WF 53.3% (#12)
3 PT%: Pitt 33.2% (#8); WF 34.9% (#10)
2 PT%: Pitt 46.22%; WF 54.1% (#12) - Pitt's 2 point offense against WF's 2 point defense.... Yikes.

Both teams are reliant on the three for offense: Pitt 34.7% (#5) of its offense in ACC games comes from behind the arc; 38.8%(#5) of WF's offense in ACC games comes from threes.

Team Analytics (National Ranks);

Bench minutes (or lack thereof): Pitt 26.5% (#291) - WF 26.2% (#298)
Experience: Pitt 2.99 years (#18) - WF 2.51 years (#62)
Pitt is a middle-of-the-road tempo team 67.5 possessions a game (9th in the ACC); WF is the ACC's fastest tempo team at 70 possessions per game.

The Roster: JC III hit the transfer portal to try to save his job as all five of Pitt's starters are transfers (note that 2022 Pitt's leading scorer and rebounder John Hughley played in only 8 games and is now out for the season due to mental health issues).

Against FSU Pitt started (all 5 starters transferred to Pitt):

6-0 Nelly Cummings: 5th year player; Colgate transfer; 10 ppg; leads team in assists (89) and TOs (40); in a shooting slump -- 6 for his last 33 from three (18%) - 1 for 8 against FSU; 94% from the line
6-3 Greg Elliot: 5th year player; Marquette transfer: 10 ppg 4 rpg; 39% from 3; erratic last three games: 4 points 62 O rating; 23 points 183 O rating; 9 points 101 O rating
6-4 Jamarius Burton: 5th year player; Texas Tech/Wichita State transfer; leading scorer 16.5 ppg; 5 rpg; double figures in 17 of 18 games; 37% from 3; scored 20 against FSU
6-7 Blake Hinson: Ole Miss transfer; 2nd leading scorer 16 ppg; leading rebounder 7 rpg; 35% from 3; leads team in 3PT attempts and makes
6-11 Federiko Federiko (yes that's his name): JUCO transfer: initally committed to WVU; born in Egypt; raised in Finland; does not shoot 3s; prolific shot blocker 45th in the nation in block percentage; fouls have been a recent problem

Bench:

6-4 Nike Sibande: Miami (O) transfer: 8 ppg 4 rpg; 7 ppg; 16 in the win over UVA; 33% from 3; 45 % last year
6-11/7-0 Diaz Graham twins: neither can score much; both can make a three a combined 10 for 31; just there to foul and grab a rebound if the ball falls to them

Projection: KP projects a 77-73 Pitt win; Torvik -- 78-73 Pitt. The UVA game was an upside game - lots of upside for the winner, but the loser could recover; this game is big for the down-side. The loser will be in trouble: 6-4 in the ACC; two game losing streak; deflating loss. Not great that Pitt just lost to FSU as the Panthers will likely play at max effort on Wednesday (unless this is the just beginning of another Capel team collapsing -- always a possibility). Pitt has quality home wins over UVA and UNC; while they lack depth, Pitt has four players in double figures, lots of three point threats that can also take the ball to the rack.

One huge matchup concern is that Pitt leads the ACC in 2 PT FG% and WF's 2 PT defense has been woeful. While Capel's team is generally in love with threes, this is a matchup that screams for Pitt to take it inside; will see if Capel follows that script.

While there will be time to revise the thinking, not super-excited about this matchup. WF is coming off a big game; WF appears slightly dinged up; Pitt is off an embarrassing loss, and WF's defense continues to leave concerns. Just hope our edge on the bench (the coaching staff for each team), can make up for the Pitt edges. Right now, the only lean is under if the total is around 150.
 
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Huge game for us. Get the momentum back, don't go into a slide. Win these next two and we're back on track.
 
Posted something similar on another thread, but I think a lot of Pitt's success has to do with the fact that they are playing with #grownassmen.

Blake Hinson - 24
Jamarius Burton - 22
Nelly Cummings - 24
Nike Sibande - 23
Greg Elliott - 24

These guys were all pretty meh at their previous schools... But when you are playing your 4th, 5th, or even 6th year in college hoops, you're bound to improve/mature.

That's not a shot at Pitt... We obviously have Appleby (24), Williamson (turned 23 yesterday), and Monsanto (22).
 
DeacsATS said:
Posted something similar on another thread, but I think a lot of Pitt's success has to do with the fact that they are playing with #grownassmen.

Blake Hinson - 24
Jamarius Burton - 22
Nelly Cummings - 24
Nike Sibande - 23
Greg Elliott - 24

These guys were all pretty meh at their previous schools... But when you are playing your 4th, 5th, or even 6th year in college hoops, you're bound to improve/mature.

That's not a shot at Pitt... We obviously have Appleby (24), Williamson (turned 23 yesterday), and Monsanto (22).
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This is a huge reason we had improved in football. Personally, I think this is against the spirit of the game, but if the rules allow you to play guys in their mid 20s that were developed at other schools, can't blame schools for taking advantage. It's causing a massive chain reaction all the way down to screwing high school recruits, but why not take advantage of bad rules like covid eligibility if it's there.
 
I have no idea how it's against the spirit of the game, but after the COVID year runs out for everybody it will (in theory) drop down the average age a year or so.
 
Yeah, my point was less about whether or not it is against the spirit of the game. I also don't even really care if it is sustainable as a strategy.

I'm just saying that I think Pitt has been playing well because they've put together a team of men. These are guys who had OK careers at lower level schools (Cummings) or were very mediocre at other programs (Burton & Hinson). Elliott at least seems like a decent shooter, but he never had a big role at Marquette in 4 years.

I tend to think that as the year goes along, other teams will show more growth and improvement and Pitt will get left behind as coaches figure them out a bit. That's perhaps negated by the fact that all of these mercenaries could benefit from better chemistry after playing together for a few months.

TLDR - I think we smoke these fools.
 
Like the observation. Age does help; that's how BYU almost always out performs its recruiting rankings. FWIW, think that as the year goes on coaches will make tweaks to improve their teams which Capel will be unable to make similar adjustments.

IMO "the spirt of the game" is violated when programs like KY and Duke field teams full of players making a six month college pit stop before heading to the NBA. So happy that model has repeatedly failed in recent years.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I have no idea how it's against the spirit of the game, but after the COVID year runs out for everybody it will (in theory) drop down the average age a year or so.
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Was talking about this after the game this weekend. As fans when we see something like Kihei Clark coming back for a sixth year or Sam Hartman getting himself paid in the portal for a sixth year at age 23/24, we think of it solely as good for those guys and their teams. We don't think of the other side of it, which is one less recruit being signed and given a college scholarship at UVA, a Notre Dame quarterback being forced into the portal, and a chain reaction of guys missing out on opportunity. I see it a lot in college soccer with my brother and his friends, for example one of his best friends being forced into the portal a week after scoring to win the national championship for Syracuse so they could free up his scholarship to poach a 24 year old fifth year player form UCONN. I understand the theoretical purpose of giving everybody a free year and a free transfer, but the rules are having disastrous effect if you look just below the surface, and in my opinion all of this is against the spirit of collegiate athletics.
 
A combination of this thread and bracketology here, but most bracketologists seem to have Pitt in over Wake at this point and I don't think there's much argument to be made for it, aside from the one extra Q1 victory that Pitt holds.

Wake

KPI: 38
SOR: 51

BPI: 64
POM: 76
SAG: 63

Q1: 2-4 Q2: 3-1 Q3: 2-1 Q4: 7-0

Average NET Win: 177 Avg NET Loss: 57

Pitt

KPI: 49
SOR: 63

BPI: 67
POM: 68
SAG: 60

Q1: 3-2 Q2: 2-4 Q3: 1-0 Q4: 7-1

Average NET Win: 193 Avg NET Loss: 77

Our resume is better than theirs, and a head-to-head victory on their court will make that clear.
 
WakeFanatic said:
A combination of this thread and bracketology here, but most bracketologists seem to have Pitt in over Wake at this point and I don't think there's much argument to be made for it, aside from the one extra Q1 victory that Pitt holds.

Wake

KPI: 38
SOR: 51

BPI: 64
POM: 76
SAG: 63

Q1: 2-4 Q2: 3-1 Q3: 2-1 Q4: 7-0

Average NET Win: 177 Avg NET Loss: 57

Pitt

KPI: 49
SOR: 63

BPI: 67
POM: 68
SAG: 60

Q1: 3-2 Q2: 2-4 Q3: 1-0 Q4: 7-1

Average NET Win: 193 Avg NET Loss: 77

Our resume is better than theirs, and a head-to-head victory on their court will make that clear.
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From both an ACC standings and bracketology standpoint, we really have the chance to do the talking with our play on the court this week. Win both games and we are solidly ahead of Pitt and State in the race for top 4 and a tournament bid.
 
WakeFanatic said:
A combination of this thread and bracketology here, but most bracketologists seem to have Pitt in over Wake at this point and I don't think there's much argument to be made for it, aside from the one extra Q1 victory that Pitt holds.

Wake

KPI: 38
SOR: 51

BPI: 64
POM: 76
SAG: 63

Q1: 2-4 Q2: 3-1 Q3: 2-1 Q4: 7-0

Average NET Win: 177 Avg NET Loss: 57

Pitt

KPI: 49
SOR: 63

BPI: 67
POM: 68
SAG: 60

Q1: 3-2 Q2: 2-4 Q3: 1-0 Q4: 7-1

Average NET Win: 193 Avg NET Loss: 77

Our resume is better than theirs, and a head-to-head victory on their court will make that clear.
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The good news is that there's one thing n(N)umbers nerds can't do, which is actually the most important part. And that is play the actual games. Wake plays Pitt this week. Time to prove it.
 
NJDeac’22 said:
Was talking about this after the game this weekend. As fans when we see something like Kihei Clark coming back for a sixth year or Sam Hartman getting himself paid in the portal for a sixth year at age 23/24, we think of it solely as good for those guys and their teams. We don't think of the other side of it, which is one less recruit being signed and given a college scholarship at UVA, a Notre Dame quarterback being forced into the portal, and a chain reaction of guys missing out on opportunity. I see it a lot in college soccer with my brother and his friends, for example one of his best friends being forced into the portal a week after scoring to win the national championship for Syracuse so they could free up his scholarship to poach a 24 year old fifth year player form UCONN. I understand the theoretical purpose of giving everybody a free year and a free transfer, but the rules are having disastrous effect if you look just below the surface, and in my opinion all of this is against the spirit of collegiate athletics.
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I don't disagree with this, but these aren't exactly unintended consequences. People were talking about it when this extra year was being debated. The feeling then was that the positives outweighed the negatives.

Personally, I think it was a shitty situation all around (in terms of college hoops). We didn't even get a tourney in 2020 and then we got a half-assed attempt at a season in 20-21.

The portal / free transfer is a completely different issue. And, as I think you're aware, NIL is also having an impact on things.
 
DeacsATS said:
I don't disagree with this, but these aren't exactly unintended consequences. People were talking about it when this extra year was being debated. The feeling then was that the positives outweighed the negatives.

Personally, I think it was a shitty situation all around (in terms of college hoops). We didn't even get a tourney in 2020 and then we got a half-assed attempt at a season in 20-21.

The portal / free transfer is a completely different issue. And, as I think you're aware, NIL is also having an impact on things.
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Yea, you sum it up well. There are benefits to some in addition to the negatives I talked about that effect a lot of people, I just think creating a system that allows and encourages coaches to push players into the portal to then use either their scholarship or booster money to poach players from another roster creates a system where professional style roster building is more important than education and athletic development. I also think allowing 24 year olds like Sam (Ioved Sam at Wake, obviously a fantastic kid just making the most out of a broken system he didn't create) to play another year and diminish opportunity for actual undergrad college athletes is awfully unfair to them, and it has had a massive effect on opportunities for recruits out of high school.
 
NJDeac’22 said:
Was talking about this after the game this weekend. As fans when we see something like Kihei Clark coming back for a sixth year or Sam Hartman getting himself paid in the portal for a sixth year at age 23/24, we think of it solely as good for those guys and their teams. We don't think of the other side of it, which is one less recruit being signed and given a college scholarship at UVA, a Notre Dame quarterback being forced into the portal, and a chain reaction of guys missing out on opportunity. I see it a lot in college soccer with my brother and his friends, for example one of his best friends being forced into the portal a week after scoring to win the national championship for Syracuse so they could free up his scholarship to poach a 24 year old fifth year player form UCONN. I understand the theoretical purpose of giving everybody a free year and a free transfer, but the rules are having disastrous effect if you look just below the surface, and in my opinion all of this is against the spirit of collegiate athletics.
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Do you do any research before posting this stuff? UVA didn't max out its scholarships this year. Kihei's 5th year didn't deprive anyone of anything. That's how UVA was able to add G'town transfer Dante Harris three weeks ago. Kihei Clark returning didn't deprive any HS player of anything. FWIW, Tony Bennett rarely maximizes his roster with scholarship players.

Notre Dame football signed 24 HS freshman out of the class of 2023, that's a huge HS recruiting class. All of those players signed before Sam committed. Again, Sam going to ND didn't deprive anyone of anything. You just blindly post drivel without any understanding what the reality is.

Also, do you understand that scholly limits are the one NCAA rule that actually helps schools like WF? Before scholly limits were imposed, the richest and biggest football schools would have over 100 players on ship just to ensure that good players wouldn't sign with rival schools.
 
Pilchard said:
Do you do any research before posting this stuff? UVA didn't max out its scholarships this year. Kihei's 5th year didn't deprive anyone of anything. That's how UVA was able to add G'town transfer Dante Harris three weeks ago. Kihei Clark returning didn't deprive any HS player of anything. FWIW, Tony Bennett rarely maximizes his roster with scholarship players.

Notre Dame football signed 24 HS freshman out of the class of 2023, that's a huge HS recruiting class. All of those players signed before Sam committed. Again, Sam going to ND didn't deprive anyone of anything. You just blindly post drivel without any understanding what the reality is.

Also, do you understand that scholly limits are the one NCAA rule that actually helps schools like WF? Before scholly limits were imposed, the richest and biggest football schools would have over 100 players on ship just to ensure that good players wouldn't sign with rival schools.
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Notre Dame pushed Drew Pyne into the portal so they could bring in Sam, so I think he would say there was a pretty sizable impact. UVA indeed had an open 'ship and brought in Harris (weird addition, I've seen him play and don't think he fits that system) so it didn't have an effect in that specific example, but in general it does take away a lot of opportunity and it has been written about extensively how this system is virtually eliminating a large part of high school recruiting in football. Basketball I'm not so sure as to the effect yet beyond playing time for younger guys but I imagine there is also an effect on recruiting and an increase in guys being "pushed out" of their schools. It is going to be really interesting to see what happens when the guys with five years of eligibility finally cycle through. Andrew Carr's class is the last one with the extra year.
 
Drew Pyne entered the transfer portal on December 2nd .

That was long before Sam had a notion of playing at Notre Dame. Keep spinning.
 
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