Pilchard
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Our Deacs have 11 regular season games left. Of course, all remaining games are important at this point, but Wednesday's game at the Petersen Events Center is particularly huge because WF's opponent is also seeking to get into the NCAAT conversation, and is tied with WF the ACC Standings (WF and Pitt are currently tied for 3rd). Also, like UVA, WF only plays Pitt once; so, Wednesday's winner will hold the head to head tiebreaker for the ACCT seedings and to the extent both ultimately make it to bubble discussions, a head to head road win against another bubble team (particularly a road win) is gold. Put another way, the winner of the Pitt/WF game will be no worse that tied for 3rd in the ACC Standings heading into the weekend, the loser will likely be tied for 6th place.
13-7 (6-3) Panthers (KP #69): When the season started, Jeff Capel III was a dead man coaching. He was heading into his 5th season at Pitt, and the program was in sad shape. Before this season, Jeff Capel was 23-57 against the conference. Last year's Panther team bottomed out at 11-21 (6-15), with a litany of embarrassing losses and a string of transfers out of the program. Lack of money to pay the buy-out could only explain Capel's return for season 5.
As soon as the season started, any lingering hope for PItt was quickly extinguished as the Panthers suffered humiliating beat-downs at home to West Virginia (81-56) and on a neutral to Michigan (91-60) -- those losses by a combined 56 points have contributed to the ACC's poor analytical ranking. Just as dirt was getting tossed on JC III's coaching grave, Pitt turned it around and won 12 of its next 15 games with wins over #54 Northwestern (on the road by 29), @ NC State, @ Cuse, UNC and UVA. However, this past Saturday, Pitt scuttled a lot of that good work with a BAD home loss to #143 (7-13) to FSU. After that dreadful home performance, Pitt will be fighting for its season on Wednesday.
The Analytical Matchup (ACC ranks):
Offense:
Efficiency: Pitt 106.7 (#7) - WF 111.9 (#1)
Effective FG%: Pitt 51.8 (#4) - WF 54.7 (#1)
3 PT%: Pitt 32.1 (#9) - WF 39.1 (#2)
2 PT%: Pitt 54.8 (#1) - WF 51.6 (#5)
Defense:
Efficiency: Pitt 101.6 (#7) - WF 107.1 (#11)
Effective FG% Pitt 47.6% (#3) - WF 53.3% (#12)
3 PT%: Pitt 33.2% (#8); WF 34.9% (#10)
2 PT%: Pitt 46.22%; WF 54.1% (#12) - Pitt's 2 point offense against WF's 2 point defense.... Yikes.
Both teams are reliant on the three for offense: Pitt 34.7% (#5) of its offense in ACC games comes from behind the arc; 38.8%(#5) of WF's offense in ACC games comes from threes.
Team Analytics (National Ranks);
Bench minutes (or lack thereof): Pitt 26.5% (#291) - WF 26.2% (#298)
Experience: Pitt 2.99 years (#18) - WF 2.51 years (#62)
Pitt is a middle-of-the-road tempo team 67.5 possessions a game (9th in the ACC); WF is the ACC's fastest tempo team at 70 possessions per game.
The Roster: JC III hit the transfer portal to try to save his job as all five of Pitt's starters are transfers (note that 2022 Pitt's leading scorer and rebounder John Hughley played in only 8 games and is now out for the season due to mental health issues).
Against FSU Pitt started (all 5 starters transferred to Pitt):
6-0 Nelly Cummings: 5th year player; Colgate transfer; 10 ppg; leads team in assists (89) and TOs (40); in a shooting slump -- 6 for his last 33 from three (18%) - 1 for 8 against FSU; 94% from the line
6-3 Greg Elliot: 5th year player; Marquette transfer: 10 ppg 4 rpg; 39% from 3; erratic last three games: 4 points 62 O rating; 23 points 183 O rating; 9 points 101 O rating
6-4 Jamarius Burton: 5th year player; Texas Tech/Wichita State transfer; leading scorer 16.5 ppg; 5 rpg; double figures in 17 of 18 games; 37% from 3; scored 20 against FSU
6-7 Blake Hinson: Ole Miss transfer; 2nd leading scorer 16 ppg; leading rebounder 7 rpg; 35% from 3; leads team in 3PT attempts and makes
6-11 Federiko Federiko (yes that's his name): JUCO transfer: initally committed to WVU; born in Egypt; raised in Finland; does not shoot 3s; prolific shot blocker 45th in the nation in block percentage; fouls have been a recent problem
Bench:
6-4 Nike Sibande: Miami (O) transfer: 8 ppg 4 rpg; 7 ppg; 16 in the win over UVA; 33% from 3; 45 % last year
6-11/7-0 Diaz Graham twins: neither can score much; both can make a three a combined 10 for 31; just there to foul and grab a rebound if the ball falls to them
Projection: KP projects a 77-73 Pitt win; Torvik -- 78-73 Pitt. The UVA game was an upside game - lots of upside for the winner, but the loser could recover; this game is big for the down-side. The loser will be in trouble: 6-4 in the ACC; two game losing streak; deflating loss. Not great that Pitt just lost to FSU as the Panthers will likely play at max effort on Wednesday (unless this is the just beginning of another Capel team collapsing -- always a possibility). Pitt has quality home wins over UVA and UNC; while they lack depth, Pitt has four players in double figures, lots of three point threats that can also take the ball to the rack.
One huge matchup concern is that Pitt leads the ACC in 2 PT FG% and WF's 2 PT defense has been woeful. While Capel's team is generally in love with threes, this is a matchup that screams for Pitt to take it inside; will see if Capel follows that script.
While there will be time to revise the thinking, not super-excited about this matchup. WF is coming off a big game; WF appears slightly dinged up; Pitt is off an embarrassing loss, and WF's defense continues to leave concerns. Just hope our edge on the bench (the coaching staff for each team), can make up for the Pitt edges. Right now, the only lean is under if the total is around 150.
13-7 (6-3) Panthers (KP #69): When the season started, Jeff Capel III was a dead man coaching. He was heading into his 5th season at Pitt, and the program was in sad shape. Before this season, Jeff Capel was 23-57 against the conference. Last year's Panther team bottomed out at 11-21 (6-15), with a litany of embarrassing losses and a string of transfers out of the program. Lack of money to pay the buy-out could only explain Capel's return for season 5.
As soon as the season started, any lingering hope for PItt was quickly extinguished as the Panthers suffered humiliating beat-downs at home to West Virginia (81-56) and on a neutral to Michigan (91-60) -- those losses by a combined 56 points have contributed to the ACC's poor analytical ranking. Just as dirt was getting tossed on JC III's coaching grave, Pitt turned it around and won 12 of its next 15 games with wins over #54 Northwestern (on the road by 29), @ NC State, @ Cuse, UNC and UVA. However, this past Saturday, Pitt scuttled a lot of that good work with a BAD home loss to #143 (7-13) to FSU. After that dreadful home performance, Pitt will be fighting for its season on Wednesday.
The Analytical Matchup (ACC ranks):
Offense:
Efficiency: Pitt 106.7 (#7) - WF 111.9 (#1)
Effective FG%: Pitt 51.8 (#4) - WF 54.7 (#1)
3 PT%: Pitt 32.1 (#9) - WF 39.1 (#2)
2 PT%: Pitt 54.8 (#1) - WF 51.6 (#5)
Defense:
Efficiency: Pitt 101.6 (#7) - WF 107.1 (#11)
Effective FG% Pitt 47.6% (#3) - WF 53.3% (#12)
3 PT%: Pitt 33.2% (#8); WF 34.9% (#10)
2 PT%: Pitt 46.22%; WF 54.1% (#12) - Pitt's 2 point offense against WF's 2 point defense.... Yikes.
Both teams are reliant on the three for offense: Pitt 34.7% (#5) of its offense in ACC games comes from behind the arc; 38.8%(#5) of WF's offense in ACC games comes from threes.
Team Analytics (National Ranks);
Bench minutes (or lack thereof): Pitt 26.5% (#291) - WF 26.2% (#298)
Experience: Pitt 2.99 years (#18) - WF 2.51 years (#62)
Pitt is a middle-of-the-road tempo team 67.5 possessions a game (9th in the ACC); WF is the ACC's fastest tempo team at 70 possessions per game.
The Roster: JC III hit the transfer portal to try to save his job as all five of Pitt's starters are transfers (note that 2022 Pitt's leading scorer and rebounder John Hughley played in only 8 games and is now out for the season due to mental health issues).
Against FSU Pitt started (all 5 starters transferred to Pitt):
6-0 Nelly Cummings: 5th year player; Colgate transfer; 10 ppg; leads team in assists (89) and TOs (40); in a shooting slump -- 6 for his last 33 from three (18%) - 1 for 8 against FSU; 94% from the line
6-3 Greg Elliot: 5th year player; Marquette transfer: 10 ppg 4 rpg; 39% from 3; erratic last three games: 4 points 62 O rating; 23 points 183 O rating; 9 points 101 O rating
6-4 Jamarius Burton: 5th year player; Texas Tech/Wichita State transfer; leading scorer 16.5 ppg; 5 rpg; double figures in 17 of 18 games; 37% from 3; scored 20 against FSU
6-7 Blake Hinson: Ole Miss transfer; 2nd leading scorer 16 ppg; leading rebounder 7 rpg; 35% from 3; leads team in 3PT attempts and makes
6-11 Federiko Federiko (yes that's his name): JUCO transfer: initally committed to WVU; born in Egypt; raised in Finland; does not shoot 3s; prolific shot blocker 45th in the nation in block percentage; fouls have been a recent problem
Bench:
6-4 Nike Sibande: Miami (O) transfer: 8 ppg 4 rpg; 7 ppg; 16 in the win over UVA; 33% from 3; 45 % last year
6-11/7-0 Diaz Graham twins: neither can score much; both can make a three a combined 10 for 31; just there to foul and grab a rebound if the ball falls to them
Projection: KP projects a 77-73 Pitt win; Torvik -- 78-73 Pitt. The UVA game was an upside game - lots of upside for the winner, but the loser could recover; this game is big for the down-side. The loser will be in trouble: 6-4 in the ACC; two game losing streak; deflating loss. Not great that Pitt just lost to FSU as the Panthers will likely play at max effort on Wednesday (unless this is the just beginning of another Capel team collapsing -- always a possibility). Pitt has quality home wins over UVA and UNC; while they lack depth, Pitt has four players in double figures, lots of three point threats that can also take the ball to the rack.
One huge matchup concern is that Pitt leads the ACC in 2 PT FG% and WF's 2 PT defense has been woeful. While Capel's team is generally in love with threes, this is a matchup that screams for Pitt to take it inside; will see if Capel follows that script.
While there will be time to revise the thinking, not super-excited about this matchup. WF is coming off a big game; WF appears slightly dinged up; Pitt is off an embarrassing loss, and WF's defense continues to leave concerns. Just hope our edge on the bench (the coaching staff for each team), can make up for the Pitt edges. Right now, the only lean is under if the total is around 150.
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