Pilchard
Well-known member
- Joined
- May 3, 2011
- Messages
- 17,191
- Reaction score
- 6,469
This Saturday, the Deacs look to end their current two game slide in a hope tilt against the Pack. Here is the skinny on the Kevin Keatts resurgent squad:
2022-23 NC State 16-5 (6-4) KP#46: Coming off a dire 2022 season (11-21 - DFL finish in the ACC - two losses to WF by a combined 43 points), the Pack needed a major turn-around or KK would be looking for work in March 2023. To his credit, over the offseason, KK scored in the portal, convinced Terquavion Smith to take his name out of the 2022 NBA draft and re-emphasized defense (2022 Pack - #246 in defense; 2023 Pack - #62 in defense). With these changes, NC State is now looking to secure its first NCAA bid in four seasons. While the Pack is currently in line for an NCAAT bid, they played a very soft OOC schedule (#310); so, the Pack need to accumulate more quality wins, and winning at WF would be NC State's best or 2nd or best road win of the season (on January 7, NC State beat a limited VT team in Blacksburg by 4). Also, a NC State win at WF would distance the Pack from WF, another team vying for a NCAAT bid. This isn't just a rivalry game; this is a big game for both teams.
Head to Head Analytics (ACC ranks):
Offense
Efficiency: NCS 105.7 (#9) - WF 112.4 (#1)
TO Rate: NCS 11.6 (#1) - WF 14.5 (#3)
3 PT FG% : NCS 30% (#15) - WF 38.8% (#3)
2 PT FG%: NCS 48.6% - WF 52,4% (#4)
Effective FG%: 47.3% (#13) - WF 55.2% (#1)
Defense:
Efficiency: NCS 103.3 (#6) - WF 108.4 (#11)
TO Rate: NCS 18 (#5) - WF 18.5 (#3)
3 PT FG%: NCS 29.9% (#2) - WF 36.8% (#12)
2 PT FG%: NCS 52.2% (#11) - WF 53.6% (#12)
Effective FG: NCS 49.9 (#7) - WF 54.4 (#13)
Team (National Ranks):
Bench Minutes: NCS 27.2% #273 - WF 25.9% #297
Experience: NCS 2.62 years #50 - WF 2.52 years #61
Height: NCS 77"#188 - WF 78" #53
Tempo: 70.1 possessions #51 - WF 69.3 possessions #78
Roster:
In Tuesday's 85-82 win over ND, the Pack started:
Starting C Dusan Mahoric and F Jack Clark are currently out with injuries; Clark could return at any time
6-1 Jarkel Joiner: Cal-Bakersfield/Ole Miss transfer, 5th year senior; doesn't commit TOs; has made a huge difference for the Pack; 17 points, 4.6 boards, 3.5 assists per game; 83% from the line; 33% from 3 (26% in ACC games); 28 points against ND; 116 O rating
6-3 Casey Morsell: UVA transfer; completely transformed his game; shot 18% from 3 as a frosh at UVA; 44% this year; 13 points 4.6 boards a game; also doesn't commit TOs; 85% from the line; 131 O rating
6-4 Terquavion Smith: polarizing player; volume shooter; 5 for 21 from the field in loss to Clemson; averages 9 three point attempts a game - 33%; 31% in ACC games; leads team in assists and turnovers
6-8 Gregg Gantt: Providence transfer; doesn't score; doesn't shoot threes; didn't play much until January; averages less than three points per start
6-9 DJ Burns: Winthrop transfer; fatty; doesn't move well; can be beat down the court by bigs willing to run; doesn't shoot threes; 55% from 2; 10 points and 5 boards a game
Bench:
6-9 Ernest Ross: non-factor until last 4 games; 9 ppg and 4 rpg over the last 4; 17 points and 9 board in the win over Miami
6-10 Ebenezer Dowuona: minutes have increased after Pack's front court injuries; 7 points and 3 blocks in win over ND; can't shoot threes
6-2 LJ Thomas: frosh; averaging 8 minutes a game; 8 for 16 from 3; scoreless in the last two games
Projection: Both KP and Torvik project a 79-78 WF win in 71 possessions.
This is a good news/bad news analysis.
THE GOOD:
After getting strafed from three in the last two, WF faces a Pack team that is last in the ACC in three point %.
Also, WF has been victimized by bigs hitting threes this year, and NC State doesn't have a three-point threat big.
In addition to the lack of three point big, the Pack is thin up front with the Clark and Mahoric injuries; so, NC State doesn't have the personnel to exploit WF's front court limitations
The Pack are banged up as they are down two starters and Smith is coming off miraculous comeback
from his fall at Chapel Hill.
THE BAD:
Both Smith and Joyner have been shooting worse than historical trends suggest. So, got to think a game is coming when the Pack fills it up from deep, and WF seems like the perfect candidate for that to happen.
Also, WF's one strength on D is forcing TOs, but the Pack doesn't turn the ball over.
Joyner and Smith are adept at taking the ball to the basket and WF lacks a shot blocker to keep the Pack guards out of the paint.
WF is on an OVER the total heater. Each of WF last 10 games have flown over the posted total by an average of over 10 ppg. Also, NC State has started ramping up the pace as each of the last three Pack games have hit the 71 possession mark, and all of those opponents play at a slower tempo than WF. Further over the last two years, WF has scored big at home (WF scored 101 against NC State last season). Thinking that this game is going to be a wild up and down game with a ton of big runs. The total will open around 157, but will be bet up from there (wouldn't be shocked to see the total cross 160 by tip-off).
After the UVA and Pitt losses, WF has to find a way to win this game. While State is a veteran team with elite guards (and perhaps, I'm trying to avoid the notion of a third straight loss knocking WF off the bubble), think WF wins at home in a high-scoring contest.
2022-23 NC State 16-5 (6-4) KP#46: Coming off a dire 2022 season (11-21 - DFL finish in the ACC - two losses to WF by a combined 43 points), the Pack needed a major turn-around or KK would be looking for work in March 2023. To his credit, over the offseason, KK scored in the portal, convinced Terquavion Smith to take his name out of the 2022 NBA draft and re-emphasized defense (2022 Pack - #246 in defense; 2023 Pack - #62 in defense). With these changes, NC State is now looking to secure its first NCAA bid in four seasons. While the Pack is currently in line for an NCAAT bid, they played a very soft OOC schedule (#310); so, the Pack need to accumulate more quality wins, and winning at WF would be NC State's best or 2nd or best road win of the season (on January 7, NC State beat a limited VT team in Blacksburg by 4). Also, a NC State win at WF would distance the Pack from WF, another team vying for a NCAAT bid. This isn't just a rivalry game; this is a big game for both teams.
Head to Head Analytics (ACC ranks):
Offense
Efficiency: NCS 105.7 (#9) - WF 112.4 (#1)
TO Rate: NCS 11.6 (#1) - WF 14.5 (#3)
3 PT FG% : NCS 30% (#15) - WF 38.8% (#3)
2 PT FG%: NCS 48.6% - WF 52,4% (#4)
Effective FG%: 47.3% (#13) - WF 55.2% (#1)
Defense:
Efficiency: NCS 103.3 (#6) - WF 108.4 (#11)
TO Rate: NCS 18 (#5) - WF 18.5 (#3)
3 PT FG%: NCS 29.9% (#2) - WF 36.8% (#12)
2 PT FG%: NCS 52.2% (#11) - WF 53.6% (#12)
Effective FG: NCS 49.9 (#7) - WF 54.4 (#13)
Team (National Ranks):
Bench Minutes: NCS 27.2% #273 - WF 25.9% #297
Experience: NCS 2.62 years #50 - WF 2.52 years #61
Height: NCS 77"#188 - WF 78" #53
Tempo: 70.1 possessions #51 - WF 69.3 possessions #78
Roster:
In Tuesday's 85-82 win over ND, the Pack started:
Starting C Dusan Mahoric and F Jack Clark are currently out with injuries; Clark could return at any time
6-1 Jarkel Joiner: Cal-Bakersfield/Ole Miss transfer, 5th year senior; doesn't commit TOs; has made a huge difference for the Pack; 17 points, 4.6 boards, 3.5 assists per game; 83% from the line; 33% from 3 (26% in ACC games); 28 points against ND; 116 O rating
6-3 Casey Morsell: UVA transfer; completely transformed his game; shot 18% from 3 as a frosh at UVA; 44% this year; 13 points 4.6 boards a game; also doesn't commit TOs; 85% from the line; 131 O rating
6-4 Terquavion Smith: polarizing player; volume shooter; 5 for 21 from the field in loss to Clemson; averages 9 three point attempts a game - 33%; 31% in ACC games; leads team in assists and turnovers
6-8 Gregg Gantt: Providence transfer; doesn't score; doesn't shoot threes; didn't play much until January; averages less than three points per start
6-9 DJ Burns: Winthrop transfer; fatty; doesn't move well; can be beat down the court by bigs willing to run; doesn't shoot threes; 55% from 2; 10 points and 5 boards a game
Bench:
6-9 Ernest Ross: non-factor until last 4 games; 9 ppg and 4 rpg over the last 4; 17 points and 9 board in the win over Miami
6-10 Ebenezer Dowuona: minutes have increased after Pack's front court injuries; 7 points and 3 blocks in win over ND; can't shoot threes
6-2 LJ Thomas: frosh; averaging 8 minutes a game; 8 for 16 from 3; scoreless in the last two games
Projection: Both KP and Torvik project a 79-78 WF win in 71 possessions.
This is a good news/bad news analysis.
THE GOOD:
After getting strafed from three in the last two, WF faces a Pack team that is last in the ACC in three point %.
Also, WF has been victimized by bigs hitting threes this year, and NC State doesn't have a three-point threat big.
In addition to the lack of three point big, the Pack is thin up front with the Clark and Mahoric injuries; so, NC State doesn't have the personnel to exploit WF's front court limitations
The Pack are banged up as they are down two starters and Smith is coming off miraculous comeback
from his fall at Chapel Hill. THE BAD:
Both Smith and Joyner have been shooting worse than historical trends suggest. So, got to think a game is coming when the Pack fills it up from deep, and WF seems like the perfect candidate for that to happen.
Also, WF's one strength on D is forcing TOs, but the Pack doesn't turn the ball over.
Joyner and Smith are adept at taking the ball to the basket and WF lacks a shot blocker to keep the Pack guards out of the paint.
WF is on an OVER the total heater. Each of WF last 10 games have flown over the posted total by an average of over 10 ppg. Also, NC State has started ramping up the pace as each of the last three Pack games have hit the 71 possession mark, and all of those opponents play at a slower tempo than WF. Further over the last two years, WF has scored big at home (WF scored 101 against NC State last season). Thinking that this game is going to be a wild up and down game with a ton of big runs. The total will open around 157, but will be bet up from there (wouldn't be shocked to see the total cross 160 by tip-off).
After the UVA and Pitt losses, WF has to find a way to win this game. While State is a veteran team with elite guards (and perhaps, I'm trying to avoid the notion of a third straight loss knocking WF off the bubble), think WF wins at home in a high-scoring contest.
Last edited:
