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MBB Game 23: NC State @ LJVM -- Saturday 4 pm - ACCN

Pilchard

Pilchard

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Link to previous breakdown of the Pack


Using Torvik's ability to focus the analytics of teams to certain time frames, here is a snapshot of the NCS/WF matchup since the Pack's January 16 83-76 win over the Deacs (WF has played 5 games; NCS has played 6):

Analytics since January 16th:

NCS (national ranks):

Rank: #119 in the nation
Off Eff: 105 #193
Def. Eff: 100 #77
O Eff. FG%: 46 #309
D Eff. FG%: 48 #87
2 PT% O: 45 #322
2 PT% D: 47 #85
3 PT% O: 33 #224
3 PT% D: 33 #148
D TO%: 13 #335
Tempo: 69


WF (national ranks):

Rank: 10th in the nation
Off Eff: 119 #31
Def Eff: 92 #11
O Eff. FG%: 56 #37
D Eff. FG%: 47 #53
2 PT% O: 56 #46
2 PT% D: 50 #166
3 PT% O: 38 #82
3 PT% D: 26 #20
D TO%: 19 #72
Tempo: 70

Key points:
  • WF has played superior basketball to NCS since January 16th
  • WF's defense has been outstanding (#11 in defensive efficiency); best stretch by far in the Forbes era
  • WF's 3 point defense has been crazy good (three point defense is a combination of merit and luck); so, WF's defense has been legitimately good, but WF has also been somewhat lucky
  • NCS has played two road games in that stretch; to the Pack's credit, they almost upset UVA losing in OT; but the Pack also crapped the bed at Cuse, losing by 12.
The Projection:

KP: WF 78-70
Torvik: WF 79-69

Based upon the numbers, WF should win this game comfortably. Simply, the Deacs have been the far better team offensively and defensively over the past four weeks. Further, WF has been lights out at home 13-0 this season; while NCS is 2-3 on the road (with wins at ND and at L'ville). Got to feel good about all of that.

Even so, NCS has given WF problems under Forbes (Keatts is 5-2); in particular, WF has struggled with TOs against the Pack's pressure D. On January 16th, WF turned the ball over 17 times (20% TO rate); Boopie had 6; Efton had 4. So, avoiding TOs is key. Deacs are coming off a game where the opponent (GT) shot 12% from three and could not manage .7 per possession. Unlikely that a 2nd opponent would shoot so poorly two games in a row. The Deacs also have a nationally televised game at Duke on Monday. Based on all of those circumstances, can't recommend taking WF in a rivalry game giving double digits. Given that WF should expect some defensive regression, and that WF is scoring lots of points in home games, would lean over if the total is less than 150. Would love to win this game in dominating fashion, but would be happy with any win as WF has the two toughest remaining games next: @ Duke and @ UVA. Got to be 8-4 in the ACC heading into those tough contests.
 
Have to beat these teams we lost to on the road (NCSU & Pitt)... It'd be a bad look to drop both matchups to either one.

I doubt NCSU shoots 0-8 from 3.
I also doubt that Horne is as deadly in the mid-range this time around.
 
Hey all, back with another episode of the BOTG Pod. We're joined by Christian Odjakjian, also known as OdjHoops on Twitter, to discuss myriad Wake-hoops-related topics. A brief written preview below, along with links to the pod on Apple and Spotify.

Wake Forest's past two wins felt like Steve Forbes catching lightning in a bottle. Was that just playing inferior opponents, or have the Deacs turned a corner? Wake Forest looks like a tournament team. The metrics say the Deacs should be dancing. But, right now, the resume doesn't completely back it up. Wake needs Q1 wins. It has Duke twice, UVA, VT and Clemson ahead. It has the season's destiny in its hands. Take it. Don't let opportunities slip away.
Plus, game prep ahead of Saturday's matchup with NC State.




As always, thanks for listening if you choose to do so!
 
Deacfreak07 said:
Listen, I’m all for winning and home court advantage but I don’t think creating a public health crisis for the sake of a basketball game is really the path to go down.
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Hypothetically, what is the most efficient way to get rabies? Racoon bite?
 
Getting spoiled as these home games just give off blowout vibes. Think that continues on Saturday.
 
vtwhat etc said:
We need a rabid crowd at the Joel.
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It's coming. I'm assuming most of yall here don't get the SDR emails but they've sent more than usual detailing specifics about the game for the students-- fan zone, wrist bands, lower bowl seat vouchers, etc. First time I've ever seen one of the emails outright mention where student overflow seating is. Based on the email, they're expecting more than 1,000 students and I'd expect the same. Gonna be an absolutely amazing atmosphere Saturday, and I sure as hell can't wait.

Get up early on State and keep the pedal on the fucking floor. I'm so indescribably ready to send them back to Raleigh with a loss.
 
I'm so ready not only to send them away with a loss but a big loss. Let's keep the streak going.
 
IamThunderbolt said:
I don’t quite get the purpose of a “racing theme” for the game against state. 1500 checkered flags?
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Is Forbes a big NASCAR fan? I know we’ve done a racing theme before because I got the free shirt that they gave out that day
 
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