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MBB Game 24: @ Duke- Monday 7pm - ESPN

Deacfreak07 said:
Wonder if there’s a double beat writer on here with some unique insight.
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Ha. This is always a weird day(s).

Enjoyed going on the pod with @EssexThayer and Ben yesterday. We talked about the frontcourt matchups but from the other side, because against BC and Quinten Post, Duke was switching and had Mitchell on Post, Filipowski on McGlockton/Aligbe. I don't think WF would do that against Duke, @BeachBumDeac, because I don't think it creates any kind of advantage. Duke did it against BC mainly to keep Filipowski out of foul trouble.

I'll link up both of my previews in the interest of full transparency. They're both free and there's a little copy-and-pasting, but tried to keep it as original as possible. Here's the Wake Forest one -- talks about short rest, Jeremy Roach, Efton Reid III. Here's the Duke one -- talks about how important Mitchell is, Hunter Sallis and Sean Stewart.

As I said on the pod and hopefully is evident in the previews: Duke is far from elite status despite their ranking. Any level-headed Duke fan would even tell you that. They're searching for the same type of stride they found last year around this point in the calendar -- and they don't have anybody close to Dereck Lively II's defensive impact.
 
CONeill said:
Ha. This is always a weird day(s).

Enjoyed going on the pod with @EssexThayer and Ben yesterday. We talked about the frontcourt matchups but from the other side, because against BC and Quinten Post, Duke was switching and had Mitchell on Post, Filipowski on McGlockton/Aligbe. I don't think WF would do that against Duke, @BeachBumDeac, because I don't think it creates any kind of advantage. Duke did it against BC mainly to keep Filipowski out of foul trouble.

I'll link up both of my previews in the interest of full transparency. They're both free and there's a little copy-and-pasting, but tried to keep it as original as possible. Here's the Wake Forest one -- talks about short rest, Jeremy Roach, Efton Reid III. Here's the Duke one -- talks about how important Mitchell is, Hunter Sallis and Sean Stewart.

As I said on the pod and hopefully is evident in the previews: Duke is far from elite status despite their ranking. Any level-headed Duke fan would even tell you that. They're searching for the same type of stride they found last year around this point in the calendar -- and they don't have anybody close to Dereck Lively II's defensive impact.
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Wait, ryan young is still on this team? Doesn't that mother fucking 40 year old stiff have people to lay off for McKinsey?
 
Deacfreak07 said:
Wait, ryan young is still on this team? Doesn't that mother fucking 40 year old stiff have people to lay off for McKinsey?
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You might dislike him; a large portion of Duke fans loathe him. He's the only transfer on the roster other than a Stanford guy who doesn't play.
 
One thing of which I have to keep reminding myself is that K doesn't coach this team anymore. And while Scheyer has been solid, he has not been spectacular. So if you don't allow K's ghost to rise up and haunt you from his zombie crypt, Cameron really doesn't have to be as intimidating anymore. In fact it would be extra fun to shut up/shut down the Cameron Crazies more than any other fanbase. So I hope that's the mentality of our guys tonight.

The ref bias is still real but it's not as ridiculous as it was when K was in their ear.

Duke is very, very beatable.
 
The one day of rest, particularly after such an intense game where 4 of our starters played about 35 minutes, is a tough ask. I assume playing in Cameron will have the team plenty fired up to start, but maintaining that level for all 40 minutes will be a challenge.

Third consecutive home game for them, so the scheduling makes their home court advantage even more significant. A good amount of the Duke basketball I've watched this year has been pretty uninspired, so they are absolutely beatable. When they've struggled (not counting Hinson going 7/7 from deep) it seems like it's been interior defense (UNC and GaTech bigs were effective) that failed them. Not sure how long Efton can stay on the court against Filipowski and the calls he'll get at home so the Carr/Mitchell matchup might be the key. Think the guard play on both sides is likely to be very good.

Hopefully we keep it close and steal one late for once. Not the end of the world if things go south - really like our chances at UVA and the Pitt/Duke home games.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
If Wake can do tonight what no other Wake team has done in 27 years, 2&2 will move off the “fire our head coach who has us as a top 30 team in the country” train.

You heard it here first folks !
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It's not like our last 27 years featured John Wooden. One guy couldn't coach defense to save his life (absolutely no pun intended). The next was considered an overmatched train wreck by all relevant parties, for various reasons, and was quickly ousted. The next two are arguably 2 of the 5 worst coaches in the history of college basketball. So yeah, Forbes isn't exactly following in the footsteps of greatness. Has any other ACC team not won in Cameron over the same 27-year span?
 
I don't buy the lack of rest argument. We played a home game Saturday afternoon. We play in Durham on Monday night. I think Forbes indicated that the team would "go live" on Sunday in practice.

Duke played on Saturday and only went about 7 deep in the rotation.

Feels like kind of a wash.
 
We absolutely have the talent to win tonight and there is no doubt the refs will hurt us. However, this game will come down to our ability to value the basketball, play solid defense and rebound, and shot selection. Forbes’ teams have always struggled in these areas. We simply must play smart, keep our composure and be disciplined in an environment like Cameron. Until a Forbes team displays these traits the doubts will linger. Here’s to hoping tonight is when we turn the corner and get a road W against a tough opponent and punch our dance ticket at the same time. It will not be easy, expect Duke to be very aggressive (refs will allow) especially towards Boopie. We have to play strong and keep our composure. Let’s go Deacs!
 
DeacsATS said:
I don't buy the lack of rest argument. We played a home game Saturday afternoon. We play in Durham on Monday night. I think Forbes indicated that the team would "go live" on Sunday in practice.

Duke played on Saturday and only went about 7 deep in the rotation.

Feels like kind of a wash.
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Yeah I don't buy it either. Duke played on Saturday too and three of their starters logged over 30 mins. No different from the one day of rest in the tourney. Only difference is we have a little over an hour bus ride and we're playing in a gym one might find at a failing high school.
 
We had an emotional game against a rival that fought tooth and nail to sweep us and spoil our home win streak. Also our game finished later in the day. Big difference IMHO.

Just looking for a solid showing tonight, not expecting a win.
 
BeachBumDeac said:
I legitimately believe that K wanted to beat Wake more than any other team other than Carolina and so he made sure his team never overlooked us like they sometimes did with VT or Pitt or whoever.
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Why do you believe that? I'm not arguing about it, just curious as to your reasons.
 
Didn't have time for a full write up on the game. Duke is over-covered anyway.

While this is hardly news, feel compelled to again confirm how no program in the nation (not even Kentucky) ruins the careers of highly rated players like Duke does. Latest example is Dariq Whitehead who entered Duke as the #3 player in the 2022 HS, sure-fire lottery pick. After a dispointing 9 moths in Durham, Whitehead was drafted #22 in the 2023 draft, and he is now toiling for the Long Island Nets in the G League.

Any other program would be destroyed for systematically destroying the talent on hand like Duke does.

Here are the HS recruiting rankings of the top 6 in Duke's current rotation:

Kyle Filipowski 5 star -- #4 recruit in the 2022 HS class
Jared McClain 5 star -- #14 recruit in the 2023 HS class
Mark Mitchell 5 star -- #13 recruit in the 2022 HS class
Tyrese Proctor 5 star -- #23 recruit in the 2022 HS class
Jeremy Roach 5 star -- #24 recruit in the 2020 HS (Duke even has 4 year starter at PG; so, the lack of experience excuse doesn't hold).

Yet, this isn't considred an overly talented Duke team...

FWIW, early in the HS class of 2023 recruiting process, WF was involved with TJ Power a 6-9 PF from Mass. As Power rose up the recruiting rankings (up to #17), Duke got involved, and Power, of course, tanked his basketball career and commited to Duke. Had Power come to WF or most of the zillion other schools that offered, Power would be developing his game on team that might be as good or better than Duke. Instead, the 5 star #17 rated recruit, rots on the Duke bench as Power has 4 DNPs in ACC play and has scored a TOTAL of 8 points in ACC play. OTOH, Hunter Sallis resurrected his NBA prospects by transferring to WF.

Shocker: Duke has 4 top 17 recruits coming in from the HS class of 2024. Can't wait to see how many of these guys Duke ruins.

As for the game, the key stat to watch is Duke points in FTs. WF has struggled with fouling (particularly on the road), as the Deacs are #11 in the ACC in opponents FTAs per FGA. Duke, naturally, is one of the best in the ACC free throw rate (#5). Offensively, Duke is weak inside (#10 in the ACC in 2 PT defense), while WF usually does its damage from deep, this may be a game for WF to take it the rack.
 
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