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MBB Game 25: @UVA - Saturday Noon - ESPN2

Pilchard

Pilchard

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Deacs at the Hoos start off a busy Saturday NCAA basketball slate with a noon tipoff at JPJ Arena. Here is a link to the previous report on UVA:
The link to the UVA Report #1

UVA season update: After losing big (66-47) at WF on January 13th, the Hoos ran off eight straight ACC wins, before stumbling at home against Pitt last night. UVA now sits at 19-6 (10-4) - third in the ACC and 1.5 game ahead of 4th place WF (8-5). Among the benefits of a WF win on Saturday, would be a rare sweep of the Hoos, which would give WF the tiebreaker if the Deacs and the Hoos end the regular season with the same record.

Here are the updated key Torvik analytics on UVA and WF since that January 13th game:
  • Torvik rates UVA and WF as the top two ACC teams since January 13th. Overall, Torvik rates UVA as the #11 team in the nation since January 13th and even though WF holds a 4-4 mark since beating UVA, WF is #23 (Duke is #26 and UNC is #32)
  • UVA has the #52 offense and the #6 defense (nationally) over the their last 9 games, and UVA has played the slowest tempo in the nation over that stretch averaging only 60 possessions per game (68 is average)
    • UVA has been particularly good at shooting the three (42% - #6 in the nation) since Mid-January
  • WF has the #36 offense and the #25 defense since the January win over UVA, while WF has averaged 71 possessions per game (#48 nationally)
    • WF's three point defense has been outstanding since mid-January: 26% #13 nationally
  • UVA (#37) commits fewer offensive TOs than WF (#72), while UVA's defense (#63) causes far more TOs than WF's (#295)
Minor in the starting lineup: UVA has started the same 4 players all season: Beekman, McNeely, Dunn and Rohde (who still has been disappointing), but UVA's defense has improved with Tony Bennett's insertion of Jordan Minor at the 5 spot. Minor is only 6-8, but he's thick (listed at 240, but weighs more) and he hustles. Until last night's Pitt game, UVA had not given up more than 66 points in any of Minor's 10 starts, and UVA had held 5 of those opponents to 57 points or less.

The Projection:

KP: UVA 65-64
Torvik: UVA 64-62

A tough game just got tougher after Pitt drilled UVA last night. The loss snapped the Hoos 23 home win streak. For the most part, the Pitt/UVA game followed the script which Bennett likes: 59 possessions; UVA dominated inside outscoring Pitt 42-24 on twos and UVA shot more FTs than Pitt. So, how did UVA lose? Pitt shot 32 threes and made 44% of them, including a 5 for 13 night for Blake Hinson. So, Saturday, expect a low possession game with UVA looking to pound the ball inside to lure Reid into foul trouble. In WF's January win over UVA, Reid played 32 minutes and was called for just three fouls. WF also hit 48% of its threes. While the pack-line defense is vulnerable to a hot three point shooting team, the Hoos will spend the next two days looking for ways to takeaway the three. Would love to pick WF to win at UVA, but Hoos home domination and WF's road struggles make a Deacon win seem improbable. If the O/U is around the KP projection of 129, recommend the under. Guessing the total will close around 125. Deacs need that Q1 win, but hard to project that it happens on Saturday.
 
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Pilchard said:
Deacs at the Hoos start off a busy Saturday NCAA basketball slate with a noon tipoff at JPJ Arena. Here is a link to the previous report on UVA:
The link to the UVA Report #1

UVA season update: After losing big (66-47) at WF on January 13th, the Hoos ran off eight straight ACC wins, before stumbling at home against Pitt last night. UVA now sits at 19-6 (10-4) - third in the ACC and 1.5 game ahead of 4th place WF (8-5). Among the benefits of a WF win on Saturday, would be a rare sweep of the Hoos, which would give WF the tiebreaker if the Deacs and the Hoos end the regular season with the same record.

Here are the updated key Torvik analytics on UVA and WF since that January 13th game:
  • Torvik rates UVA and WF as the top two ACC teams since January 13th. Overall, Torvik rates UVA as the #11 team in the nation since January 13th and even though WF holds a 4-4 mark since beating UVA, WF is #23 (Duke is #26 and UNC is #32)
  • UVA has the #52 offense and the #6 defense (nationally) over the their last 9 games, and UVA has played the slowest tempo in the nation over that stretch averaging only 60 possessions per game (68 is average)
    • UVA has been particularly good at shooting the three (42% - #6 in the nation) since Mid-January
  • WF has the #36 offense and the #25 defense since the January win over UVA, while WF has averaged 71 possessions per game (#48 nationally)
    • WF's three point defense has been outstanding since mid-January: 26% #13 nationally
  • UVA (#37) commits fewer offensive TOs than WF (#72), while UVA's defense (#63) causes far more TOs than WF's (#295)
Minor in the starting lineup: UVA has started the same 4 players all season: Beekman, McNeely, Dunn and Rohde (who still has been disappointing), but UVA's defense has improved with Tony Bennett's insertion of Jordan Minor at the 5 spot. Minor is only 6-8, but he's thick (listed at 240, but weighs more) and he hustles. Until last night's Pitt game, UVA had not given up more than 66 points in any of Minor's 10 starts, and UVA had held 5 of those opponents to 57 points or less.

The Projection:

KP: UVA 65-64
Torvik: UVA 64-62

A tough game just got tougher after Pitt drilled UVA last night. The loss snapped the Hoos 23 home win streak. For the most part, the Pitt/UVA game followed the script which Bennett likes: 59 possessions; UVA dominated inside outscoring Pitt 42-24 on twos and UVA shot more FTs than Pitt. So, how did UVA lose? Pitt shot 32 threes and made 44% of them, including a 5 for 13 night for Blake Hinson. So, Saturday, expect a low possession game with UVA looking to pound the ball inside to lure Reid into foul trouble. In WF's January win over UVA, Reid played 32 minutes and was called for just three fouls. WF also hit 48% of its threes. While the pack-line defense is vulnerable to a hot three point shooting team, the Hoos will spend the next two days looking for ways to takeaway the three. Would love to pick WF to win at UVA, but Hoos home domination and WF's road struggles make a Deacon seem improbable. If the O/U is around the KP projection of 129, recommend the under. Guessing the total will close around 125. Deacs need that Q1 win, but hard to project that it happens on Saturday.
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Funny how Pitt can go into Duke and win, go into UVa and win, yet we just don't seem to have that in us. Another in the quickly decreasing opportunities to change that Saturday I guess. 😐
 
spritethr said:
Y’all need to be more positive! Let’s go get a fucking win in Charlottesville!
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That's more like it!

Hunter Sallis is 10-20 from 3 over our last four games, and that includes 0-4 at GT when we did everything else right. (That's right...he's 10-16 over our other three last games)

Let's have him go 5-8 from 3, 5-8 from 2, 5-5 from the FT line for a cool 30. Add in 16 from Carr, 10 from Reid, 6 each from Boopie and PFred and that's enough to win a low-scoring affair.
 
Most people think we need to get to 13-7 in the ACC with a couple Q1 victories to get to the tournament. If that is in fact the case, we would be well served to pick up a victory at Virginia. Otherwise we will have to go 5-1 in our remaining 6 games (Pitt, Duke, @ND, @VT, GT, Clemson). I think that would be very difficult.
 
This team is certainly tournament caliber and I am optimistic we get there. They should really expand the field. Too many automatic bids from shitty conferences.
 
saus21 said:
This team is certainly tournament caliber and I am optimistic we get there. They should really expand the field. Too many automatic bids from shitty conferences.
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Respectfully disagree with the expand the field and too many shitty conferences thoughts. WF has had a many chances to improve its NCAA resume, and so far, WF has shown to be great at beating up bad teams, but it just has not stepped up against the better teams on its schedule. WF is 3-8 on the road or on neutral courts this season, and its best road win is over #93 BC, with too many crappy road losses to mediocre teams (Pitt, NC State, FSU, UGA; add in the neutral court loss to LSU, and its not hard to see why this team is on the bubble). WF has one win over a top 50 team (the win at home over Florida). WF has chances to improve its particulars, starting with the game at UVA on Saturday, but if WF loses at UVA, home to Duke, at VT and home to Clemson; it's not the bids from the shitty conferences that may keep WF out of the tournament, it's the failure to win the games against the tougher teams in the tougher environments.
 
Pilchard said:
Respectfully disagree with the expand the field and too many shitty conferences thoughts. WF has had a many chances to improve its NCAA resume, and so far, WF has shown to be great at beating up bad teams, but it just has not stepped up against the better teams on its schedule. WF is 3-8 on the road or on neutral courts this season, and its best road win is over #93 BC, with too many crappy road losses to mediocre teams (Pitt, NC State, FSU, UGA; add in the neutral court loss to LSU, and its not hard to see why this team is on the bubble). WF has one win over a top 50 team (the win at home over Florida). WF has chances to improve its particulars, starting with the game at UVA on Saturday, but if WF loses at UVA, home to Duke, at VT and home to Clemson; it's not the bids from the shitty conferences that may keep WF out of the tournament, it's the failure to win the games against the tougher teams in the tougher environments.
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While I agree with your overall points, if WF had beaten UVA by 3 instead of by 19, they would currently have two wins over top 50 KP teams.
 
Wish Boopie was a decent 3 pt shooter.. he was pretty good early on, but I don't think he's made more than one or two in the past 8 games (at least it feels that way)..
 
MACdeac said:
Wish Boopie was a decent 3 pt shooter.. he was pretty good early on, but I don't think he's made more than one or two in the past 8 games (at least it feels that way)..
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Regression to the mean I imagine. He gets a funny spin on the ball. Works from short but less effective from long range IMHO
 
MACdeac said:
Wish Boopie was a decent 3 pt shooter.. he was pretty good early on, but I don't think he's made more than one or two in the past 8 games (at least it feels that way)..
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Yeah, don‘t recall which game it was but clearly remember him hitting a clinching 3 from near half court in some early game.
 
I was surprised that Forbes took Parker Friedrichsen out of the Duke game with 1:32 left on the clock. He had accounted for 8 of the prevous 20 points the Deacs had scored. I noticed he was also actively hunting for his shot, a behavior he displayed as the primary offensive threat in high school. I haven't seen that from him this year in his role off the bench. He has 24 games of experience and he is the best shooter that Forbes has recruited. Given the diminishing field goal percentages of Miller and Hildreth and Monsanto's physical limitations, extended PT and extended responsibility could be appropriate. He works on D and he doesn't commit turnovers. Parker could be the player to give this team a much needed boost down the stretch.
 
Seeya said:
Yeah, don‘t recall which game it was but clearly remember him hitting a clinching 3 from near half court in some early game.
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Miami Where he had 29 points and the clutch bomb 3. pretty Much downhill since.
 
saus21 said:
This team is certainly tournament caliber and I am optimistic we get there. They should really expand the field. Too many automatic bids from shitty conferences.
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Definitely disagree. That is the beauty of March Madness where the lowly Southern Conference team (Furman) plays up and defeats the mighty ACC (UVa) in the first round. Many examples like St Peters two seasons ago.
We ‘can’ be tournament caliber but need to prove it on the court. Can’t lose seemingly every year to LSU and middle of the road UGa in non-con and help ourselves.
I am sure they will expand the tourney but I hope not too much. Three weeks of games is enough.
 
Said it on the Duke thread and I’m going to say it here. Parker should be starting right now. We can’t keep doing the same things on the road and expect different results. Hell I’d consider starting Marsh too, let Efton avoid a foul in the first four minutes.


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