• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

MBB Game 28: NC State Wolfpack @ PNC Arena: Wednesday - 9pm - Ballys

Pilchard

Pilchard

Well-known member
Joined
May 3, 2011
Messages
17,191
Reaction score
6,469
Wednesday, our Deacs have their last chance at a quality road win as WF MBB heads to Raleigh to face the Pack. Here is the link to the earlier scouting report on the Pack. WF is 3-5 in ACC road tilts, and the best conference road win so far is at BC. That's not going to get it done.

After beating WF 79-77 at the Joel, the Pack went 4-2 with home wins over FSU, GT, UNC and a road win at BC. The Pack's two most recent losses: @ UVA by 13 and at Cuse by 3. Since beating WF, the Pack has jumped from #53 in KP to 43. WF is currently #77 (WF was #74 after the 1/31/23 loss to NCS).

Updated conference analytics:

Offense
Efficiency: NCS 108.7 (#4) - WF 111.9 (#2)
TO%: NCS 12% (#1) - WF 14.5% (#5)
Off. Reb. %: NCS 30.3% (#2) - WF 22.3% (#13)
2 PT FG%: NCS 48.5% (#13) - WF 53.3% (#4)
3 PT FG%: NCS 33.5% (#10) - WF 37.6% (#2)
Eff. FG%: NCS 49.1% (#12) - WF 54.7% (#2)

Defense
Efficiency: NCS 102.1 (#6) - WF 108.3 (#9)
TO%: NCS 17.6% (#4) - WF 16.4% (#8)
Off. Reb. %: NCS 26.6% (#6) - WF 26.8% (#7)
2 PT FG%: NCS 50.1 (#5) - WF 51.4% (#10)
3 PT FG%: NCS 30.6% (#1) - WF 36.3% (#13)
Eff. FG%: NCS 48.9% (#5) - WF 52.6% (#11)

Roster update: Since beating WF, NCS senior transfer F Jack Clark (6-8) has returned after missing 10 games. In the last two games, Clark has averaged 10.5 ppg and 8.5 rpg. Clark shoots 29% from 3.

Projections: KP projects a 82-76 NCS win; Torvik 84-77

Great spot for WF. NC State is coming off a big win over rival UNC (the final was deceiving as the game was tied late in the 2nd half before an NCS spurt put the game away); NCS already beat WF at the LJVM. Deacs are in desperation mode, and the Pack essentially have sewn up an NCAA bid. Kind of crazy that the Torvik and KP essentially project the same line (+6.5) as WF/Miami which is a much tougher matchup for the Deacs. For WF to win, Tyree needs to clean up his TO issues (12!!! TOs at Miami; 1 TO against NCS in Game 1), and WF must do a better job against DJ Burns. WF must keep the Pack off the offense boards (WF did a great job protecting the offensive boards against Miami - a team with similar rebounding numbers). Will be on WF as long as the line is 5 or higher.

Win and we can argue against the NET and Bracketology a little longer. A loss, and the an ACCT is WF remaining NCAAT hope. Think the Deacs will play well in Raleigh.
 
I’m so sick of hearing about how great NC State is this year. We should have already handed them a loss. I hope we give them one on Wednesday.
 
Gotta win out, and that starts Wednesday at State. If we win this then we are in reasonably ok shape to think about 13 wins in the ACC, as it would basically all come down to at Cuse.

That being said, I feel less confident that 13-7 would get us in than I did a month ago based on how poorly the ACC is doing, and our lack of Q1 wins. I think we may need a win or two in the ACCT even if we won out to get in.

Feels like a really good spot for us, and certainly to take the +6.5 assuming that's roughly what it opens at.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Gotta win out, and that starts Wednesday at State. If we win this then we are in reasonably ok shape to think about 13 wins in the ACC, as it would basically all come down to at Cuse.

That being said, I feel less confident that 13-7 would get us in than I did a month ago based on how poorly the ACC is doing, and our lack of Q1 wins. I think we may need a win or two in the ACCT even if we won out to get in.

Feels like a really good spot for us, and certainly to take the +6.5 assuming that's roughly what it opens at.
Click to expand...

Real question: does the perceived snub from last year help us get in if we make it to the bubble?

ETA: I just don’t follow college ball that closely anymore…
 
This team can do it. They are good enough. But they could also lose every game that remains if they play like they did Saturday.
 
The only thing I can safe for sure is I think it will be close. That's been our pattern as of late in these type games ie close losses. I hate NC State but I am not going to deny that this is a better team then years past for them. Never easy to win on the road.

We need to be on offensively, not turn the ball over and make it at least a little more difficult on Burns. Can we do it? Of course. Will we? I don't know. If we lose this one, we'll need something special in Greensboro.
 
Strickland33 said:
Real question: does the perceived snub from last year help us get in if we make it to the bubble?

ETA: I just don’t follow college ball that closely anymore…
Click to expand...
I'd say absolutely not and that is mainly due to the fact that there really is no perceived snub other than within the Wake fanbase. Wake not even getting a #1 seed in the NIT shows how far away they were from getting the bid, so can't imagine that has anything to do with the discussion in a couple few weeks.
 
This State team is good when they play team ball, and they have 3 very talented guards who can go off at any time. I'm sure we'll have a plan for DJ, but it will come down to shooting and not making stupid turnovers.
 
daaberry said:
I'd say absolutely not and that is mainly due to the fact that there really is no perceived snub other than within the Wake fanbase. Wake not even getting a #1 seed in the NIT shows how far away they were from getting the bid, so can't imagine that has anything to do with the discussion in a couple few weeks.
Click to expand...
Interesting comment. We were a two seed in last years NIT if my aging memory is correct. Until Skip's untimely passing and Dino in charge for a year, Wake had made an annual visit to the NCAA tourney for several consecutive years. During the Redacted and Mannequin leadership period our only appearance was a play in game. Being out of the limelight for over a decade and being considered in the past tense has taken its toll. We now are realizing the cost of poor management from Wellman to his selection of coach. I know many are impatient with Forbes and his progress getting us back to the tournament. One thing this man has accomplished since his arrival is leadership. His two immediate predecessors offered NOTHING other than a reputation for defeat!
 
I wish I felt otherwise, but I just don't see this team as a likely candidate to string a bunch of really good performances together. In fact, I think it's been a pretty consistent issue over a long period. When coached by someone competent, Wake can beat anybody on a given night, but has a very (very) hard time being consistently very good or better over multiple games.

Thus, I think we often find ourselves fighting math and hoping for something atypical to happen at this time of the year.

Having said that, it is so much better (and more reasonable to hope) now than it was under the last two utterly incompetent coaches. I cannot believe, even after all this time, the degree to which Wellman fucked WFU basketball. I'm sure those currently in charge know that, and are taking the high road by not banning him from campus. But if I were in charge, I would.
 
Haven’t been able to consistently improve on defense and the continual ridiculous turnovers means a big NO for the NCAAT. Maybe we shoot lights out in the ACCT and ya never know.
 
Surely Tyree got the next three games’ worth of turnovers out of his system Saturday.

Actually I’m serious. That was so bad and he is so competitive that he is going to be that much more determined and focused to make up for it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top