Pilchard
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This Thursday, WF travels south to challenge the Utah Running Utes in the Charleston Classic Quarters. Got to say after looking at Utah's first two games of the season, this is going to be a tough game.
2023-4 Utes Season: 2-0 (#35). Utah has crushed two middling opponents to start this season: 101-66 over #190 Eastern Washington; 82-53 over #251 UC Riverside. In picking through these two games, Utah has been beyond impressive. KP ranked Utah #52 to start the season, and they have jumped 17 spots after these two games to #35. If all priors were thrown out, and teams were rated based solely on the first week of the season; Utah would be a top 10 team. It's not just the big wins, but how Utah did it that is... well... scary.
In the opener against EWU (who doesn't suck, they went 23-11 and won a game in the NIT last year), the Utes boat-raced EWU from the opening tip leading 46-20, before cruising to a 35 point win. Maybe EWU is awful this season... ... well, just not the case. After the blowout loss to Utah, EWU played a road game at Ole Miss (now coached by Chris Beard), and hung with the Rebs (game was tied with 10 minutes remaining) until Ole Miss pulled away to win by 11. Then, yesterday, EWU traveled to Cincy (quite the opening road-trip for the EWU Eagles - @ Utah, @ Ole Miss, @ Cincy), and again hung with the Bearcats, coached by Legend Wes Miller, into the 2nd half before losing by 12. Realize there are flaws in relying on comparative scores, but EWU opened the year against three teams that are hoping for NCAAT bids, and Utah was the one to win in dominating fashion, and they could have won by 50.
In the second game, Utah faced a UC Riverside team that also won 20 games a year ago, and Utah embarrassed the Highlanders, leading 48-13 at half-time and 53-16 less than two minutes into the 2nd half before calling off the dogs in an easy 82-53 win. Maybe, Utah is just a good bully right now, but in trying to find under-valued teams, like finding teams that get off to great starts in games when teams are fully prepared and at their best and also look for teams that know how to bury weaker opponents. Yes, it's only two games, but Utah has done that better than essentially everyone so far. They have outscored their first two opponents (again, these are not teams ranked in the bottom 300; certainly both Utah's opponents are far better than Elon) 92-33 in the first half. Whoa.
The analytics:
Offense (national ranks):
Effective FG%: 59% (#39)
Offensive Reb%: 35% (#78)
FTA/FGA 43%: (#73)
3 PT FG%: 40% (#42)
2 PT FG% 58% (#62)
Defense:
E FG%: 41% (#42)
Off Reb.%: 16% (#11)
FTA/FGA: 14% (#8)
3 PT%: 29% (#114)
2 PT% 28% (#21)
Utah is huge. They are the 2nd tallest team in the nation starting two 7 footers, and no starter is shorter than 6-4. The Utes are also super-experienced with 4 senior starters (two 5th year players) and one junior. Here is their lineup:
6-4 Sr. Rollie Worster: 4 year starter for Utah Coach Craig Smith, first at Utah State and now Utah; weakest three point shooter of the starters, but has 15 assists and 2 TOs on the season; can take care of the ball
6-6 Sr. Gabe Madson: three year starter; shoots from deep (38% last year; 44% this year); had 20 in the win over EWU
6-7 Sr. Cole Bajema: began at Michigan; played three years at Washington; graduated; first year at Utah; skilled from behind the arc (36% last year; 54% this year); 19 and 15 points in the first two games
7-0 Sr. Branden Carlson: 5th year player; the best unknown player in CBB; All Pac-12 in 2023 (16.4 ppg; 7.5 rpg; 2 bpg; ended last year with 22 straight double-figure games; and double-doubles in his last three); has improved each year; 33% from three in 23
7-1 Jr. Lawson Lovering: Colorado transfer; 22 points; 7 boards; 3 assists last time out; started for Colorado in 23
Bench:
6-9 Sr. Ben Carlson: Wisconsin transfer; started last year; scored in double figures in both games; 57% from three
6-8 Soph. Keba Keita: from Mali; double figures in both games this year; averaging 9 rebounds a game
6-3 Jr. Hunter Erickson: BYU transfer; 9 assists in first two games; only 2 for 8 from the field
Note: like WF, Utah has sought a waiver for a double transfer: GT's Devion Smith. Smith had a 15, 5 and 5 game for GT against WF last year. Without Smith, Utah's one weakness is a lack of backcourt depth.
Score projection: KP projects an 80-75 final in 74 possessions; Torvik projects 78-74. Rough matchup for the Deacs especially given WF's issues at the 5 spot. This will be the biggest team that WF plays all year, and Craig Smith is an elite coach. Deacs cannot get off to a slow start, and will need Utah to cool down from deep. The good news is that Utah is for real; so, a neutral court win over the Utes will be meaningful in March; the bad news is that WF is banged up and shorthanded playing against a team playing in top-form. Can't in good conscience pick WF in this one. Will say that as soon as the line is posted on Wednesday, Utah will get the early action; so, if you want to play WF, wait, as the line could get to 7+ by tip-off. Really like WF playing good OOC teams, but playing Utah kind of sucks right now, because Utah is a far better team than their rep. Realize that this doesn't help WF, but if Utah beats WF on Thursday, like the Utes to upset Houston.
2023-4 Utes Season: 2-0 (#35). Utah has crushed two middling opponents to start this season: 101-66 over #190 Eastern Washington; 82-53 over #251 UC Riverside. In picking through these two games, Utah has been beyond impressive. KP ranked Utah #52 to start the season, and they have jumped 17 spots after these two games to #35. If all priors were thrown out, and teams were rated based solely on the first week of the season; Utah would be a top 10 team. It's not just the big wins, but how Utah did it that is... well... scary.
In the opener against EWU (who doesn't suck, they went 23-11 and won a game in the NIT last year), the Utes boat-raced EWU from the opening tip leading 46-20, before cruising to a 35 point win. Maybe EWU is awful this season... ... well, just not the case. After the blowout loss to Utah, EWU played a road game at Ole Miss (now coached by Chris Beard), and hung with the Rebs (game was tied with 10 minutes remaining) until Ole Miss pulled away to win by 11. Then, yesterday, EWU traveled to Cincy (quite the opening road-trip for the EWU Eagles - @ Utah, @ Ole Miss, @ Cincy), and again hung with the Bearcats, coached by Legend Wes Miller, into the 2nd half before losing by 12. Realize there are flaws in relying on comparative scores, but EWU opened the year against three teams that are hoping for NCAAT bids, and Utah was the one to win in dominating fashion, and they could have won by 50.
In the second game, Utah faced a UC Riverside team that also won 20 games a year ago, and Utah embarrassed the Highlanders, leading 48-13 at half-time and 53-16 less than two minutes into the 2nd half before calling off the dogs in an easy 82-53 win. Maybe, Utah is just a good bully right now, but in trying to find under-valued teams, like finding teams that get off to great starts in games when teams are fully prepared and at their best and also look for teams that know how to bury weaker opponents. Yes, it's only two games, but Utah has done that better than essentially everyone so far. They have outscored their first two opponents (again, these are not teams ranked in the bottom 300; certainly both Utah's opponents are far better than Elon) 92-33 in the first half. Whoa.
The analytics:
Offense (national ranks):
Effective FG%: 59% (#39)
Offensive Reb%: 35% (#78)
FTA/FGA 43%: (#73)
3 PT FG%: 40% (#42)
2 PT FG% 58% (#62)
Defense:
E FG%: 41% (#42)
Off Reb.%: 16% (#11)
FTA/FGA: 14% (#8)
3 PT%: 29% (#114)
2 PT% 28% (#21)
Utah is huge. They are the 2nd tallest team in the nation starting two 7 footers, and no starter is shorter than 6-4. The Utes are also super-experienced with 4 senior starters (two 5th year players) and one junior. Here is their lineup:
6-4 Sr. Rollie Worster: 4 year starter for Utah Coach Craig Smith, first at Utah State and now Utah; weakest three point shooter of the starters, but has 15 assists and 2 TOs on the season; can take care of the ball
6-6 Sr. Gabe Madson: three year starter; shoots from deep (38% last year; 44% this year); had 20 in the win over EWU
6-7 Sr. Cole Bajema: began at Michigan; played three years at Washington; graduated; first year at Utah; skilled from behind the arc (36% last year; 54% this year); 19 and 15 points in the first two games
7-0 Sr. Branden Carlson: 5th year player; the best unknown player in CBB; All Pac-12 in 2023 (16.4 ppg; 7.5 rpg; 2 bpg; ended last year with 22 straight double-figure games; and double-doubles in his last three); has improved each year; 33% from three in 23
7-1 Jr. Lawson Lovering: Colorado transfer; 22 points; 7 boards; 3 assists last time out; started for Colorado in 23
Bench:
6-9 Sr. Ben Carlson: Wisconsin transfer; started last year; scored in double figures in both games; 57% from three
6-8 Soph. Keba Keita: from Mali; double figures in both games this year; averaging 9 rebounds a game
6-3 Jr. Hunter Erickson: BYU transfer; 9 assists in first two games; only 2 for 8 from the field
Note: like WF, Utah has sought a waiver for a double transfer: GT's Devion Smith. Smith had a 15, 5 and 5 game for GT against WF last year. Without Smith, Utah's one weakness is a lack of backcourt depth.
Score projection: KP projects an 80-75 final in 74 possessions; Torvik projects 78-74. Rough matchup for the Deacs especially given WF's issues at the 5 spot. This will be the biggest team that WF plays all year, and Craig Smith is an elite coach. Deacs cannot get off to a slow start, and will need Utah to cool down from deep. The good news is that Utah is for real; so, a neutral court win over the Utes will be meaningful in March; the bad news is that WF is banged up and shorthanded playing against a team playing in top-form. Can't in good conscience pick WF in this one. Will say that as soon as the line is posted on Wednesday, Utah will get the early action; so, if you want to play WF, wait, as the line could get to 7+ by tip-off. Really like WF playing good OOC teams, but playing Utah kind of sucks right now, because Utah is a far better team than their rep. Realize that this doesn't help WF, but if Utah beats WF on Thursday, like the Utes to upset Houston.
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