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MBB Game 30: BC Eagles @ LJVM - 7 pm Tuesday - ESPNU

Pilchard

Pilchard

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Tomorrow night our Deacs play their regular season home finale against BC. Here is the link to the previous report on BC.

BC Season Update: On January 14th, the Deacs toyed with the Eagles winning 85-63 at the Conte Forum. Andrew Carr led WF in scoring (21) and rebounding (13). Deacs didn't need Damari that night as he had his lowest scoring ACC game of the season at BC (3 points in 22 minutes).

Post-January 14 Torvik ratings for BC and WF (national rankings):

BC

#117 6-5
Wins above bubble; -0.7 (#91) "Wins above bubble" (WAB) is a comparison between what the rated team did versus the average team on the bubble. Under this rating, Kansas is the #1 WAB team with 9.2 wins above bubble; Miami is the #1 ACC team with 3.4
Offensive Efficiency: 104.6 (#173)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.7 (#82)
Tempo: 68 poss per game (#183)
3 PT FG% O: 37% (#84)
3 PT FG% D: 34.7% (#198)

WF

#78 5-6
Wins above bubble: -1.4 (#119)
Offensive Eff.: 114.9 (#36)
Def. Eff: 104.1 (#169)
Tempo: 70.7 poss (#40)
3 PT FG% O: 35.9% (#124)
3 PT FG% D: 37.4% (#295)

Schedule update: Last time out (Wednesday 2.22), BC upset UVA 63-48. BC had a "bye" this weekend, and tomorrow night's game is BC last road contest of the season. So, the Eagles will visit W-S rested and ready.

Roster update: When WF worked BC on January 14th, Quinten Post started his first game of the season as he was just rounding into form from injury. Post has steadily improved over the last 5 weeks, and Post now leads BC In: O rating (115.7), 3 PT FG% (45%), 2 PT FG% (57%) and FT% (87%). Deacs have struggled against elite bigs, and Post has become an elite big. Also, freshman Devin McGlockton role for BC has ramped up since January 14, and he has been effective for the Eagles 45% from 3; 56% from 2. BC has gone from a completely incompetent three point shooting team to a decent three point shooting team over the last five weeks.

Projection: KP projects a 79-69 WF win in 69 possessions; Torvik 80-69 WF. Again, these projections fail to factor in Monsanto's absence. Like the ND game, which was also projected to have a double digit spread, but went off at 7, WF will not be favored by 10. Would expect the line to sit around 7. If the total is in the high 140s as projected, the under is the play. WF v. ND went under by 25+ points and was played in 66 possessions. Without Monsanto, this game should also slide under

This is a good spot for BC, they are healthy and are playing their best basketball of the season. Think this game will be low scoring and tight. .
 
How many do we need to win by to not drop in the net?
 
The Quad system has been effectively beaten to death - as an imperfect measure of BC's improvement, here are the records vs. Q1 and Q2 for both BC and WF:

BC: 2-6 vs Q1, 2-4 vs. Q2, 4-10 total
WF: 2-8 vs Q1, 3-1 vs Q2, 5-9 total

also - as stated elsewhere, if BC gets the win, they gain an inside track to an ACCT first-round bye should WF and BC finish in a two-way tie (any 3-way tie would favor the Deacs)
 
bym051d said:
How many do we need to win by to not drop in the net?
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Does it matter? We aren't getting an at-large bid even if we win our next couple games each by 30, so mercifully it seems as though Wake fans can stop worrying about NET and just hope we win the ACCT.
 
deacon14 said:
Does it matter? We aren't getting an at-large bid even if we win our next couple games each by 30, so mercifully it seems as though Wake fans can stop worrying about NET and just hope we win the ACCT.
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If we finish 12-8 and get to the ACCT finals (3 more wins), we'd have to be very much in the discussion. 23 wins including 15 ACC wins would be pretty insane to leave out. Now the odds of us winning 5 straight with no Damari are <1%, but still.
 
tigerswood said:
If we finish 12-8 and get to the ACCT finals (3 more wins), we'd have to be very much in the discussion. 23 wins including 15 ACC wins would be pretty insane to leave out. Now the odds of us winning 5 straight with no Damari are <1%, but still.
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Maybe, but I'm skeptical to be honest. I don't foresee more than 5-6 ACC teams in the NCAAT, and I don't think a run to the finals gets us ahead of UVA, Miami, Duke, NCST, or Pitt. If we end up blowing out Miami and Duke in the quarters/semis maybe there's a path to get us back on the bubble, but it's certainly not a slam dunk that we'd be in the NCAAT even in that case.

Texas A&M last year is a good example, they lost in the SEC title game and got left out. They had a NET ranking of 42 and a 9-9 record in Q1/Q2 games. The given reasoning against Texas A&M was a lack of wins against the NCAAT field, and we would have the same problem this year (only ones we have are Wisconsin/Duke/ACCT wins). If we make the run you are describing, we'd have a worse NET than 42 and a (likely) 7-10 record in Q1/Q2 games.
 
Completely agree. We probably need to make the semis to make the NIT. One more win isn’t going to make the NCAAT.
 
2 more wins should have us safely in the nit
 
HoosierDeac said:
I miss the old days when we could go 7-9 in conference and make the tournament
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A record of 7-9 in ACC play in the 2000-2010 era was probably a more difficult thing to do than a 12-8 record in today's ACC.

I mean, Wake could be 12-8 in ACC play if they win out and they would only have one ACC win over an NCAAT quality team.
 
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I'm in town for meetings today and tomorrow. I can't make it to the game due to my schedule, but would like to watch it on TV. Are there any bars within walking distance of the Marriott downtown that will be showing the game?
 
^Any bar should have ESPNU, I would think

FWIW, Forbes said in his postgame press conference that the options right now are to win the ACC tournament, or hope for an NIT bid.
 
The only player that BC has who worries me is Post. I'd be interested in having Carr guard him followed by Marsh. I think Bradford is too slow and Post is less of a banger and more of a finesse pick & pop big. He's going to be tough to guard.
 
SkyDivingDeacon said:
The only player that BC has who worries me is Post. I'd be interested in having Carr guard him followed by Marsh. I think Bradford is too slow and Post is less of a banger and more of a finesse pick & pop big. He's going to be tough to guard.
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Carr, Keller, maybe even a few minutes of Klintman? Just put a variety of guys on him so he has to figure out how to work against them. And then change it.
 
Deaconblue said:
Carr, Keller, maybe even a few minutes of Klintman? Just put a variety of guys on him so he has to figure out how to work against them. And then change it.
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Not a bad idea. We don't want him leaking out and getting open looks and Carr/Klintman play much better perimeter and transition D than Marsh/Bradford. Should be an interesting matchup.
 
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Looked at tickets still available on wakes website and ain’t nobody going to be at this game. Maybe we’ll get downstairs 50% full but upstairs won’t even sniff 10% full
 
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