Pilchard
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Before getting into the preview of NC A&T, here is the update on WF through the first 3 games. While it's great to be 3-0, WF has only risen from #105 to #102 in the KP rankings through yesterday's game against CSU. The 3 teams that WF have beaten aren't very good: W&M #296 is 0-3, WCU #298 is 1-2 and CSU #341 is 0-2 (against D1 programs). KP currently projects WF to finish the regular season at 15-15 7-13 in the ACC (13th out of 15 in the ACC). So, as the wise Mr. Wolf said: "Let's not start sucking each other's dicks yet", lots of season to go:
NC A&T: On Saturday, WF faces it's toughest opponent to date, #250 NC A&T. The Aggies, coached by Will Jones (3rd year), are 0-3, losing to UNCG (#171) 57-53, to J'ville (#272), and S. Florida (#196) 56-54. As indicated by the low scores, A&T has played at a slow tempo to date as no game has involved more than 69 possessions. In contrast, WF's three games have averaged 76 possessions, including 80 last night against CSU. In addition to the slow pace, the Aggies offense has been dreadful so far as they are shooting 46% from 2 (#232), 20% from 3 (#340) and have an effective FG% of 40% (#328). Really bad. While the Aggie offense has been putrid, the defense has been solid as A&T has held opponents to 41.5% effective FG% (#36) and only 27% from 3 (#71). As detailed below, the Aggies are an older team (#72 in experience), and really heavily on their starting 5 (#248 in bench minutes). On the season, A&T has lost the rebounding battle (-29), but won the turnover battle (+12). Also, A&T left the MEAC (#32) to join the Big South(#27)this year. A&T plays a non-D1 team (Greensboro College) tonight.
A&T starters:
PG Kameron Langley 6-2 Sr.: leads team in minutes and assists; second in boards; career 59% FT shooter, worse this year 36%; 32% from 3 in his career;
SG Tyler Maye 6-1 Sr.: started at VCU; team leader in scoring (12 ppg); crazy stat: guard who leads the team in scoring, and yet, has not attempted a 3 on the season (only attempted one all of last year; that said, can finish around the basket 50% FG%
G/F David Beatty 6-2 Sr.: started at S. Carolina, then LaSalle, now A&T: double figures in the last two games, has struggled from deep this year (20%), but shot 36% for LaSalle in 2021; scored in double figures 20 times last year
F Demtric Horton 6-5 Jr.: transfer from Purdue Fort Wayne; dreadful start to the season (28% FG%; 15% from 3), did shoot 37% from 3 last year
C Harry Morrice 6-11 Jr.: from Scotland; limited minutes; unproductive scorer to date (4 points on the season) did grab 10 boards against USF; leads team in blocks with 4 per game
The bench:
F Marcus Watson 6-5 Fr.: played as a true frosh at NM State last year; team leader in rebounds (6 rpg), 2nd in points scored; has not attempted a 3
C Justin Whatley 6-9 Sr.: started at ECU, then NC Central, now A&T; started the first two games this year, part-time starter last year: 1 for 9 from 3; shot 42% last year; only played 2 minutes last time out
G/F Jeremy Robinson 6-5: didn't play in the opener; scored 9 points against USF; 2 for 5 from 3 on the season
The A&T roster is still in flux, and reinforcements are coming, UCF transfer Collin Smith (13 ppg) is expected to be eligible for the Spring Semester; in 2021 recruiting class, A&T landed Duncan Powell 6-8 four star recruit from Texas (highest rated recruit in A&T history), decommitted from Arkansas, but Powell is coming off a knee injury and has yet to play this year. Don't think he is expected to play against WF.
Bottom line: KP projects a 76-63 WF win. Given the current roster limitations, looks like A&T will follow the same script of its first three games: try to slow the game down and limit possessions. While A&T wasn't projected to be a great shooting team, their atrocious shooting start to the season should improve as the season goes on. WF has major size advantages at every position, but even so, A&T has defended very well to start the year. Don't expect Saturday's game to be the early blowout like the W&M and CSU games were as A&T hopes to force WF into grinding out its possessions. Unlike WF's first three opponents, A&T has been able to avoid TOs. If WF can force TOs and turn up the tempo, WF should be able to get the cover, but this is not the auto bet spot that the first three games were (realize WF didn't cover against WCU, but the matchup was favorable). If the total is 139 or more (KP's number), would take the under. Otherwise, this looks a like a "pass".
NC A&T: On Saturday, WF faces it's toughest opponent to date, #250 NC A&T. The Aggies, coached by Will Jones (3rd year), are 0-3, losing to UNCG (#171) 57-53, to J'ville (#272), and S. Florida (#196) 56-54. As indicated by the low scores, A&T has played at a slow tempo to date as no game has involved more than 69 possessions. In contrast, WF's three games have averaged 76 possessions, including 80 last night against CSU. In addition to the slow pace, the Aggies offense has been dreadful so far as they are shooting 46% from 2 (#232), 20% from 3 (#340) and have an effective FG% of 40% (#328). Really bad. While the Aggie offense has been putrid, the defense has been solid as A&T has held opponents to 41.5% effective FG% (#36) and only 27% from 3 (#71). As detailed below, the Aggies are an older team (#72 in experience), and really heavily on their starting 5 (#248 in bench minutes). On the season, A&T has lost the rebounding battle (-29), but won the turnover battle (+12). Also, A&T left the MEAC (#32) to join the Big South(#27)this year. A&T plays a non-D1 team (Greensboro College) tonight.
A&T starters:
PG Kameron Langley 6-2 Sr.: leads team in minutes and assists; second in boards; career 59% FT shooter, worse this year 36%; 32% from 3 in his career;
SG Tyler Maye 6-1 Sr.: started at VCU; team leader in scoring (12 ppg); crazy stat: guard who leads the team in scoring, and yet, has not attempted a 3 on the season (only attempted one all of last year; that said, can finish around the basket 50% FG%
G/F David Beatty 6-2 Sr.: started at S. Carolina, then LaSalle, now A&T: double figures in the last two games, has struggled from deep this year (20%), but shot 36% for LaSalle in 2021; scored in double figures 20 times last year
F Demtric Horton 6-5 Jr.: transfer from Purdue Fort Wayne; dreadful start to the season (28% FG%; 15% from 3), did shoot 37% from 3 last year
C Harry Morrice 6-11 Jr.: from Scotland; limited minutes; unproductive scorer to date (4 points on the season) did grab 10 boards against USF; leads team in blocks with 4 per game
The bench:
F Marcus Watson 6-5 Fr.: played as a true frosh at NM State last year; team leader in rebounds (6 rpg), 2nd in points scored; has not attempted a 3
C Justin Whatley 6-9 Sr.: started at ECU, then NC Central, now A&T; started the first two games this year, part-time starter last year: 1 for 9 from 3; shot 42% last year; only played 2 minutes last time out
G/F Jeremy Robinson 6-5: didn't play in the opener; scored 9 points against USF; 2 for 5 from 3 on the season
The A&T roster is still in flux, and reinforcements are coming, UCF transfer Collin Smith (13 ppg) is expected to be eligible for the Spring Semester; in 2021 recruiting class, A&T landed Duncan Powell 6-8 four star recruit from Texas (highest rated recruit in A&T history), decommitted from Arkansas, but Powell is coming off a knee injury and has yet to play this year. Don't think he is expected to play against WF.
Bottom line: KP projects a 76-63 WF win. Given the current roster limitations, looks like A&T will follow the same script of its first three games: try to slow the game down and limit possessions. While A&T wasn't projected to be a great shooting team, their atrocious shooting start to the season should improve as the season goes on. WF has major size advantages at every position, but even so, A&T has defended very well to start the year. Don't expect Saturday's game to be the early blowout like the W&M and CSU games were as A&T hopes to force WF into grinding out its possessions. Unlike WF's first three opponents, A&T has been able to avoid TOs. If WF can force TOs and turn up the tempo, WF should be able to get the cover, but this is not the auto bet spot that the first three games were (realize WF didn't cover against WCU, but the matchup was favorable). If the total is 139 or more (KP's number), would take the under. Otherwise, this looks a like a "pass".
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