Pilchard
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Our 4-3 #74 Deacs host the Rutgers Scarlet Knights this Wednesday. Here is a quick take on RU:
Rutgers 5-2 #63: The Scarlet Knights have proven to be a bully, beating up on 5 weak teams (no win over a team rated better than #175), but the Knights could not keep up against their two top 100 opponents, losing by 7 to #51 Princeton (BTW, Princeton is 8-0, and may be favored in every game the rest of the way) and an embarrassing 18 point home loss to #16 Illinois this past Saturday (Rutgers just doesn't lose like that a the RAC). As always, Rutgers' calling card is defense (#12 in KP), but they struggle to score (#178 in offense). The analytics (man.... Rutgers shooting stats are nauseating) :
Offense:
Effective FG%: 45.9% #296
TO%: 16% #99
3 PT%: 30.4% #265
2 PT%: 46% #290
FT%: 64% #311
Defense:
Effective FG%: 42.6% #11
TO%: 25.3 #6
3 PT%: 32% #137
2 PT%: 39% #4
Rutgers is also elite at blocking shots (#6), steals (#40), while not fouling much #66 in opponent's FTA per FGA. Rutgers is incredible at stopping the break and forcing the opponents to extend possessions (#4 in opponents longest possessions). As discussed below, Rutgers has been unable to keep teams off the offensive glass.
Roster:
Last time out (76-58 RU lost to Illinois), no Scarlet Knight players scored in double figures; here were the starters:
5-11 Sr. Noah Fernandes: Wichita State/UMASS transfer: 8ppg; 32% from three; 2nd on team in assists; tied for first in steals; horrible game against Illinois 54 "0" rating
6-3 So. Derek Simpson: athletic; 10 ppg; leads team in assists 6 for 11 from three on the season (21% last year)
6-6 Sr. Aundre Hyatt: started at LSU; leading scorer: 12 ppg; 5 rpg; 31% from three
6-9 So. Antwone Woolfolk: former football player: 6 ppg 4 rpg; no threat from three; 64% from the field
6-11 Sr. Cliff Omoruyi: three year starter; elite shot blocker (#6 in the nation in block percentage); no threat from three; 53% from two; 58% from the line; 11 ppg 9 rpg
Off the bench:
6-4 Sr. Austin Williams: Hartford transfer; 9 points 4 rpg 3 assists against Illinois; 1 for 4 from three on the season
6-8 Fr. Gavin Griffiths: highly rated recruit; scored 25 against BU; 10 ppg; 32% from three
6-2 Fr. Jamicheal Davis: 4 ppg; 3 rpg; 3 assists per game; 29% from three;
Roster note: Mawot Mag was a key player for the Knights last year until he tore his ACL. In 2023, RU went 16-7 with Mag in the lineup; 3-8 without him. Mag is expected back at some point this year, but probably not on Wednesday.
The Projection:
KP: WF 71 RU 69
Torvik: WF 70 RU 68
These two teams are opposites. WF's strength is offense (#54), but the Deacs struggle with defense (#122); Rutgers is a horrendous shooting team and struggles to score (#178 on offense), but they are among the best on defense (#12). Protecting the ball is huge for WF as if Rutgers can't turn WF over; Rutgers is helpless in the half-court; the Deacs aren't a great rebounding team (#293 in offensive rebound percentage), but curiously, RU is weak at preventing 2nd shots (#303 in opponents rebound percentage: Illinois killed Rutgers on the glass this past Saturday, outrebounding Rutgers 55 to 27 (not a misprint)). So, getting some 2nd chance points would be big for the Deacs. This is RU's first true road game (the first time the Knights leave the lovely State of NJ this season; in fact, Wednesday's game is the only game Rutgers will play in the first two months of the season (13 games) outside of the Garden State.
Would lean WF and the under. WF under Forbes have been good at home; Rutgers has historically struggled on the road, and this will be Rutgers first road game of the season (think that hurt Florida last week). That said, Rutgers will try to make this game as ugly as possible, and this will be the best defensive team that the Deacs have faced this year.
Rutgers 5-2 #63: The Scarlet Knights have proven to be a bully, beating up on 5 weak teams (no win over a team rated better than #175), but the Knights could not keep up against their two top 100 opponents, losing by 7 to #51 Princeton (BTW, Princeton is 8-0, and may be favored in every game the rest of the way) and an embarrassing 18 point home loss to #16 Illinois this past Saturday (Rutgers just doesn't lose like that a the RAC). As always, Rutgers' calling card is defense (#12 in KP), but they struggle to score (#178 in offense). The analytics (man.... Rutgers shooting stats are nauseating) :
Offense:
Effective FG%: 45.9% #296
TO%: 16% #99
3 PT%: 30.4% #265
2 PT%: 46% #290
FT%: 64% #311
Defense:
Effective FG%: 42.6% #11
TO%: 25.3 #6
3 PT%: 32% #137
2 PT%: 39% #4
Rutgers is also elite at blocking shots (#6), steals (#40), while not fouling much #66 in opponent's FTA per FGA. Rutgers is incredible at stopping the break and forcing the opponents to extend possessions (#4 in opponents longest possessions). As discussed below, Rutgers has been unable to keep teams off the offensive glass.
Roster:
Last time out (76-58 RU lost to Illinois), no Scarlet Knight players scored in double figures; here were the starters:
5-11 Sr. Noah Fernandes: Wichita State/UMASS transfer: 8ppg; 32% from three; 2nd on team in assists; tied for first in steals; horrible game against Illinois 54 "0" rating
6-3 So. Derek Simpson: athletic; 10 ppg; leads team in assists 6 for 11 from three on the season (21% last year)
6-6 Sr. Aundre Hyatt: started at LSU; leading scorer: 12 ppg; 5 rpg; 31% from three
6-9 So. Antwone Woolfolk: former football player: 6 ppg 4 rpg; no threat from three; 64% from the field
6-11 Sr. Cliff Omoruyi: three year starter; elite shot blocker (#6 in the nation in block percentage); no threat from three; 53% from two; 58% from the line; 11 ppg 9 rpg
Off the bench:
6-4 Sr. Austin Williams: Hartford transfer; 9 points 4 rpg 3 assists against Illinois; 1 for 4 from three on the season
6-8 Fr. Gavin Griffiths: highly rated recruit; scored 25 against BU; 10 ppg; 32% from three
6-2 Fr. Jamicheal Davis: 4 ppg; 3 rpg; 3 assists per game; 29% from three;
Roster note: Mawot Mag was a key player for the Knights last year until he tore his ACL. In 2023, RU went 16-7 with Mag in the lineup; 3-8 without him. Mag is expected back at some point this year, but probably not on Wednesday.
The Projection:
KP: WF 71 RU 69
Torvik: WF 70 RU 68
These two teams are opposites. WF's strength is offense (#54), but the Deacs struggle with defense (#122); Rutgers is a horrendous shooting team and struggles to score (#178 on offense), but they are among the best on defense (#12). Protecting the ball is huge for WF as if Rutgers can't turn WF over; Rutgers is helpless in the half-court; the Deacs aren't a great rebounding team (#293 in offensive rebound percentage), but curiously, RU is weak at preventing 2nd shots (#303 in opponents rebound percentage: Illinois killed Rutgers on the glass this past Saturday, outrebounding Rutgers 55 to 27 (not a misprint)). So, getting some 2nd chance points would be big for the Deacs. This is RU's first true road game (the first time the Knights leave the lovely State of NJ this season; in fact, Wednesday's game is the only game Rutgers will play in the first two months of the season (13 games) outside of the Garden State.
Would lean WF and the under. WF under Forbes have been good at home; Rutgers has historically struggled on the road, and this will be Rutgers first road game of the season (think that hurt Florida last week). That said, Rutgers will try to make this game as ugly as possible, and this will be the best defensive team that the Deacs have faced this year.
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