Pilchard
Well-known member
- Joined
- May 3, 2011
- Messages
- 17,196
- Reaction score
- 6,474
While this game is a distant second in importance to our football Deacs playing for a title on Saturday night, the MBB Deacs open ACC play at Cassel Coliseum in Blacksburg. Hear is the rundown on the Hokies:
Forbes v. Young: Mike Young holds an 8-3 edge over Steve Forbes in head to head play, with Young winning the last 5: Young's incredible 2019 Wofford team (went 30-5; took KY to the wire in the round of 32) went 21-0 against SoCon teams in 2019, including 3-0 against ETSU (who went 24-10 that year). The last of those three wins came in the 2019 SoCon tournament, when Wofford beat ETSU in OT after ETSU led for almost the entire 2nd half (Davien Williamson led all ETSU scorers in that game with 17). Last year, VT edged WF at the LJVM 64-60 (Williamson, Mucius and Massoud scored in double figures), and then, VT put the hammer down on the Deacs at VT as VT crushed WF 84-46. That game was the worst WF loss of the year, and may have been the most lopsided loss (38 - VT led by as many 43) in Coach Forbes career as a D1 coach. In that 2nd game, Jonah Antonio was WF's only double figure scorer with 12 (4 threes), while Keve Aluma led VT with 23.
2021-22 Hokies: VT sits at 6-2 #23 in KP ratings. The Hokies opened the year with 5 weak opponents and obliterated all five winning each game by 20+ points. VT then travelled to Brooklyn to play in a Thanksgiving MTE, and lost two competitive games to #29 Memphis (69-61) and #33 Xavier (59-58). Last night, VT won a tight game at Maryland (62-58) on Len Bias night. VT is KP's #35 offensive team and #17 defensive team. They play at a slow pace (#335 in pace). Memphis is the only team to crack the 60 point barrier against VT. On offense, VT is three reliant as 37% of their offense comes behind the arc, and they have hit 41% (#17) from behind the arc. VT has also protected the ball as they are #39 in the nation in TO rate. VT does not get to the line often (#308 in FTA/FGA) and they aren't a great offensive rebounding team (#261 in offensive rebound rate). Defensively, their metrics are strong across the board. VT is #11 in the nation in effective FG% (41.5%), and no one has shot the three well against the Hokies (21.4% opponents 3 point % -- #2 in the nation; that stat has to regress to the mean a little bit). VT's defense also forces TOs (#73 in defensive TO rate), and they keep teams off the offensive glass (#62) and the line (#19 in opponents FT rate). Based on current ratings, LSU, Duke and VT are the three best defenses that WF will face this year.
The VT roster:
In their 3 competitive games, Young has used a short rotation, playing essentially 7 guys (note two of those seven started for Young's 30-5 Wofford team).
The starters:
G 6-0 Sr. Storm Murphy: Wofford Transfer; 5th year senior; after dominating weak teams, Murphy has been awful over VT's last 3 games against top 100 teams: 5 total points; 0 for 8 from 3; 8 TOs and 6 assists; currently, his KP "O" rating of 88 is the worst of his career by far
G 6-3 Hunter Cattoor: maybe the best pure shooter in the ACC; career 41.4% three point shooter; has 44 three point attempts and 19 two point attempts; WF must run him off the three point line
F 6-4 Nahein Alleyne: another great three point shooter (43% this year; 41% last year), shoots a lower % from 2 (34%) than from 3; 95% from the line; can't give him open looks; tied for team lead in assists
F 6-7 Justin Mutts: High Point/Delaware transfer; can do everything; team leader in rebounds, steals and assists; 41% from 3; hit the key basket in the win over Maryland
C 6-9 Keve Aluma: Wofford transfer; VT leading scorer (13 ppg); 56% from 2; struggled from 3 (12%); 2nd in boards; somehow went 5 for 5 from 3 in the blowout over WF last year
The bench:
G/F 6-5 Darius Maddox: hardly played last year, has blossomed this year; 57% from 3; 60% from 2
F/C David N'Guessan: career game at WF last year; 13 points (5 for 5 from the field, and 3 for 3 from the line); plays limited minutes depending on Mutts' and Aluma's foul situation; only seems to be able to score against WF
The final score: KP projects an 73-63 VT win, and gives WF only a 16% chance at an upset. Of the 23 remaining games on the schedule, only the game at Duke is projected as a tougher game for WF. The defensive game plan for WF is clear: keep VT off the three point line; they have been deadly from deep this year. Offensively, WF needs to take care of the ball, and try to push pace (VT's half court defense is really tough and VT is among the best teams in the country in keeping teams from running). WF is the 2nd biggest team that VT has faced this year (behind only Memphis, and VT struggled with Memphis' size). Cassell is tough place to play, and the crowd should be into it as WF is by far the biggest VT home opponent this semester. Feel like WF is playing with house money in this game as WF will be decided dogs. Guessing the game will be tight most of the way with the Hokies pulling away at the end. If I had to lean to a side, I would lean under, (if the total is close to KP's project 136) with Forbes shortening his bench recently, and WF has also slowed its pace: in WF's last 3 games, the Deacs have scored 69, 61 and 64 in regulation. VT is a much better defensive team than at least two of those opponents. Even so, the game will be light-years better than last year's nadir at VT, and maybe the Deacs shock the ACC and make this Saturday one of the great days in WF Sport History. We can hope, right?
Forbes v. Young: Mike Young holds an 8-3 edge over Steve Forbes in head to head play, with Young winning the last 5: Young's incredible 2019 Wofford team (went 30-5; took KY to the wire in the round of 32) went 21-0 against SoCon teams in 2019, including 3-0 against ETSU (who went 24-10 that year). The last of those three wins came in the 2019 SoCon tournament, when Wofford beat ETSU in OT after ETSU led for almost the entire 2nd half (Davien Williamson led all ETSU scorers in that game with 17). Last year, VT edged WF at the LJVM 64-60 (Williamson, Mucius and Massoud scored in double figures), and then, VT put the hammer down on the Deacs at VT as VT crushed WF 84-46. That game was the worst WF loss of the year, and may have been the most lopsided loss (38 - VT led by as many 43) in Coach Forbes career as a D1 coach. In that 2nd game, Jonah Antonio was WF's only double figure scorer with 12 (4 threes), while Keve Aluma led VT with 23.
2021-22 Hokies: VT sits at 6-2 #23 in KP ratings. The Hokies opened the year with 5 weak opponents and obliterated all five winning each game by 20+ points. VT then travelled to Brooklyn to play in a Thanksgiving MTE, and lost two competitive games to #29 Memphis (69-61) and #33 Xavier (59-58). Last night, VT won a tight game at Maryland (62-58) on Len Bias night. VT is KP's #35 offensive team and #17 defensive team. They play at a slow pace (#335 in pace). Memphis is the only team to crack the 60 point barrier against VT. On offense, VT is three reliant as 37% of their offense comes behind the arc, and they have hit 41% (#17) from behind the arc. VT has also protected the ball as they are #39 in the nation in TO rate. VT does not get to the line often (#308 in FTA/FGA) and they aren't a great offensive rebounding team (#261 in offensive rebound rate). Defensively, their metrics are strong across the board. VT is #11 in the nation in effective FG% (41.5%), and no one has shot the three well against the Hokies (21.4% opponents 3 point % -- #2 in the nation; that stat has to regress to the mean a little bit). VT's defense also forces TOs (#73 in defensive TO rate), and they keep teams off the offensive glass (#62) and the line (#19 in opponents FT rate). Based on current ratings, LSU, Duke and VT are the three best defenses that WF will face this year.
The VT roster:
In their 3 competitive games, Young has used a short rotation, playing essentially 7 guys (note two of those seven started for Young's 30-5 Wofford team).
The starters:
G 6-0 Sr. Storm Murphy: Wofford Transfer; 5th year senior; after dominating weak teams, Murphy has been awful over VT's last 3 games against top 100 teams: 5 total points; 0 for 8 from 3; 8 TOs and 6 assists; currently, his KP "O" rating of 88 is the worst of his career by far
G 6-3 Hunter Cattoor: maybe the best pure shooter in the ACC; career 41.4% three point shooter; has 44 three point attempts and 19 two point attempts; WF must run him off the three point line
F 6-4 Nahein Alleyne: another great three point shooter (43% this year; 41% last year), shoots a lower % from 2 (34%) than from 3; 95% from the line; can't give him open looks; tied for team lead in assists
F 6-7 Justin Mutts: High Point/Delaware transfer; can do everything; team leader in rebounds, steals and assists; 41% from 3; hit the key basket in the win over Maryland
C 6-9 Keve Aluma: Wofford transfer; VT leading scorer (13 ppg); 56% from 2; struggled from 3 (12%); 2nd in boards; somehow went 5 for 5 from 3 in the blowout over WF last year
The bench:
G/F 6-5 Darius Maddox: hardly played last year, has blossomed this year; 57% from 3; 60% from 2
F/C David N'Guessan: career game at WF last year; 13 points (5 for 5 from the field, and 3 for 3 from the line); plays limited minutes depending on Mutts' and Aluma's foul situation; only seems to be able to score against WF
The final score: KP projects an 73-63 VT win, and gives WF only a 16% chance at an upset. Of the 23 remaining games on the schedule, only the game at Duke is projected as a tougher game for WF. The defensive game plan for WF is clear: keep VT off the three point line; they have been deadly from deep this year. Offensively, WF needs to take care of the ball, and try to push pace (VT's half court defense is really tough and VT is among the best teams in the country in keeping teams from running). WF is the 2nd biggest team that VT has faced this year (behind only Memphis, and VT struggled with Memphis' size). Cassell is tough place to play, and the crowd should be into it as WF is by far the biggest VT home opponent this semester. Feel like WF is playing with house money in this game as WF will be decided dogs. Guessing the game will be tight most of the way with the Hokies pulling away at the end. If I had to lean to a side, I would lean under, (if the total is close to KP's project 136) with Forbes shortening his bench recently, and WF has also slowed its pace: in WF's last 3 games, the Deacs have scored 69, 61 and 64 in regulation. VT is a much better defensive team than at least two of those opponents. Even so, the game will be light-years better than last year's nadir at VT, and maybe the Deacs shock the ACC and make this Saturday one of the great days in WF Sport History. We can hope, right?
Last edited:
