Pilchard
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Wednesday night, Coach Forbes takes the first step to lead WF basketball out of the abyss and into an era of relevancy as the Deacs host the William & Mary Tribe. Here is the skinny on our opening night opponent.
Coach and the 2020-21 season: 42 year-old Dane Fischer is now in his third season in Williamsburg. Fischer played hoop at D-3 Ithaca, then coached as an assistant at D-3 Williams (home of our Dave Clawson), Bucknell and George Mason before getting the head William and Mary gig (not sure what on Fischer's resume' merited the hire). With former Tribe coach Tony Shaver's players, Fischer had a strong first year for the Tribe going 21-11 and finishing 2nd in the CAA (#195 in KP ratings). Last year was a disaster as COVID (William and Mary had 3 week COVID shutdown in February) and transfers depleted the Tribe roster, as W&M went 7-10 playing a soft schedule and falling to a #302 KP rating. The Tribe played one game against a team rated in the top 150 last season, UVA, and the Hoos throttled the Tribe by 36. William and Mary struggled on offense (#291) and defense (#278). Other than making FTs (#57) and not fouling on defense (#18 in opponent FTA per FGA), William and Mary was mediocre to awful in every metric. The Tribe was a bad shooting team, 46.1% (#308) effective FG% and 28.7% (#338) from 3. Defensively, the W&M didn't force TOs (#283) and was dominated on the boards (#303 in offensive rebounding %).
2021-22 roster: The Tribe's leading scorer from last season, Luke Loewe (16 ppg) transferred to Minnesota. W&M added 6-7 swing Brandon Carroll, a transfer from D-2 Florida Southern (averaged 16 ppg), and freshman PG Tyler Rice (brother plays for G'town this year). Otherwise, it's pretty much the same crew that struggled last year. Here are the projected starters and first players off the bench for the Tribunal:
PG 6-1 So. Yuri Covington: really struggled with TOs last year (32.2 TO rate); twice as many TOs as assists, yikes, as a result will likely see the frosh Tyler Rice play a lot at point
SG 6-5 So. Connor Kochera: W&M's best player; averaged; 13.4 ppg; 5 rpg; 36% from 3; scored 30 points and 12 boards in a win over Towson (if he blows up, would be a transfer candidate)
SF 6-7 Grad transfer Brandon Carroll: 16 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 37% from 3 at D2 Florida Southern; started his career at D1 Bryant; transferred after his sophomore year; athletic threat to dunk from anywhere
PF: 6-7 Sr. Quinn Blair: 12 ppg, 6 rpg; adept at drawing fouls; led the CAA in FT rate; likes to shoot 3s, but didn't make many last year (28%)
C: 6-9 Sr. Mehkel Harvey: inept offensively, but a rim protector (2.4 bpg) and rebounder 2nd in the CAA in offensive rebound rate
Bench:
6-9 So Ben Wight: started more games at center than Harvey; averaged 4 ppg and 3.4 rpg;
6-1 Fr. Tyler Rice: very fast, played well in W&M's public scrimmage, can shoot the 3, if he doesn't start on Wednesday, Rice is likely to work his way into the starting lineup at some point
6-5 Miguel Ayesa: one trick pony -- three point sniper; took 33 shots last year, 32 of them were from 3; not kidding; shot 32% from 3; played only two minutes after January 23 after COVID outbreak.
Score projection: KP projects a 79-65 final. Really hoping for a line around 14. If so, will pound the Deacs. WF's current power rating is dragged down by "priors", meaning that those setting the lines largely base WF's current power rating on last year's team that was side tracked by COVID and then collapsed to finish last year (and also largely transferred or graduated). With the incoming transfers and newcomers, last year's flaccid Deacs bears no resemblance to the WF team that will take the court on Wednesday. This WF team is big, deep and will get after the opponent on defense (WF dominated SC in the secret scrimmage). Also, with everyone competing for minutes, think that the Deacs will push the margin out even when Forbes goes deep into his bench against the Tribe.
BTW, it's pathetic that WF opening game can't even find its way onto ACCN. That's how far the perception of WF basketball as fallen. The league has its own network, yet they can't find the programming slot for WF's opening game, and it's the same case for WF next 3 games all available only via streaming. Essentially, WF men's basketball is getting the same exposure as a D3 field hockey.
Coach and the 2020-21 season: 42 year-old Dane Fischer is now in his third season in Williamsburg. Fischer played hoop at D-3 Ithaca, then coached as an assistant at D-3 Williams (home of our Dave Clawson), Bucknell and George Mason before getting the head William and Mary gig (not sure what on Fischer's resume' merited the hire). With former Tribe coach Tony Shaver's players, Fischer had a strong first year for the Tribe going 21-11 and finishing 2nd in the CAA (#195 in KP ratings). Last year was a disaster as COVID (William and Mary had 3 week COVID shutdown in February) and transfers depleted the Tribe roster, as W&M went 7-10 playing a soft schedule and falling to a #302 KP rating. The Tribe played one game against a team rated in the top 150 last season, UVA, and the Hoos throttled the Tribe by 36. William and Mary struggled on offense (#291) and defense (#278). Other than making FTs (#57) and not fouling on defense (#18 in opponent FTA per FGA), William and Mary was mediocre to awful in every metric. The Tribe was a bad shooting team, 46.1% (#308) effective FG% and 28.7% (#338) from 3. Defensively, the W&M didn't force TOs (#283) and was dominated on the boards (#303 in offensive rebounding %).
2021-22 roster: The Tribe's leading scorer from last season, Luke Loewe (16 ppg) transferred to Minnesota. W&M added 6-7 swing Brandon Carroll, a transfer from D-2 Florida Southern (averaged 16 ppg), and freshman PG Tyler Rice (brother plays for G'town this year). Otherwise, it's pretty much the same crew that struggled last year. Here are the projected starters and first players off the bench for the Tribunal:
PG 6-1 So. Yuri Covington: really struggled with TOs last year (32.2 TO rate); twice as many TOs as assists, yikes, as a result will likely see the frosh Tyler Rice play a lot at point
SG 6-5 So. Connor Kochera: W&M's best player; averaged; 13.4 ppg; 5 rpg; 36% from 3; scored 30 points and 12 boards in a win over Towson (if he blows up, would be a transfer candidate)
SF 6-7 Grad transfer Brandon Carroll: 16 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 37% from 3 at D2 Florida Southern; started his career at D1 Bryant; transferred after his sophomore year; athletic threat to dunk from anywhere
PF: 6-7 Sr. Quinn Blair: 12 ppg, 6 rpg; adept at drawing fouls; led the CAA in FT rate; likes to shoot 3s, but didn't make many last year (28%)
C: 6-9 Sr. Mehkel Harvey: inept offensively, but a rim protector (2.4 bpg) and rebounder 2nd in the CAA in offensive rebound rate
Bench:
6-9 So Ben Wight: started more games at center than Harvey; averaged 4 ppg and 3.4 rpg;
6-1 Fr. Tyler Rice: very fast, played well in W&M's public scrimmage, can shoot the 3, if he doesn't start on Wednesday, Rice is likely to work his way into the starting lineup at some point
6-5 Miguel Ayesa: one trick pony -- three point sniper; took 33 shots last year, 32 of them were from 3; not kidding; shot 32% from 3; played only two minutes after January 23 after COVID outbreak.
Score projection: KP projects a 79-65 final. Really hoping for a line around 14. If so, will pound the Deacs. WF's current power rating is dragged down by "priors", meaning that those setting the lines largely base WF's current power rating on last year's team that was side tracked by COVID and then collapsed to finish last year (and also largely transferred or graduated). With the incoming transfers and newcomers, last year's flaccid Deacs bears no resemblance to the WF team that will take the court on Wednesday. This WF team is big, deep and will get after the opponent on defense (WF dominated SC in the secret scrimmage). Also, with everyone competing for minutes, think that the Deacs will push the margin out even when Forbes goes deep into his bench against the Tribe.
BTW, it's pathetic that WF opening game can't even find its way onto ACCN. That's how far the perception of WF basketball as fallen. The league has its own network, yet they can't find the programming slot for WF's opening game, and it's the same case for WF next 3 games all available only via streaming. Essentially, WF men's basketball is getting the same exposure as a D3 field hockey.
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