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Midterm election predictions

Who will win Congress?

  • Dems retain House & Senate

    Votes: 2 3.6%

  • Dems win House / Pubs win Senate

    Votes: 2 3.6%

  • Pubs win House / Dems win Senate

    Votes: 22 40.0%

  • Pubs win House & Senate

    Votes: 29 52.7%
  • Total voters
    55
  • Poll closed .
PhDeac said:
I don’t think a moderate is any more likely to peel off right-leaning voters than a progressive. Actually they may be less likely depending on how good of a messenger they are.

A firebrand progressive change agent will be more likely to siphon off voters than milquetoast moderate.

A moderate with a good message will be more likely to siphon off voters than a progressive with a muddled message.
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My friends and I have joked about how a straight up communist could probably siphon off more votes in WV than a moderate dem. They, of course, could never use the word communism, but campaigning on guillotining the coal mine owners and giving the hills back to the people who work them would go farther than trotting out some stiff like Klobuchar. Kind of an extreme example, but the point still stands.

Also inb4 someone says Manchin. He's not a moderate.
 
So Manchin is going to switch parties if Republicans take control of the Senate, right?
 
PhDeac said:
So Manchin is going to switch parties if Republicans take control of the Senate, right?
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I think it depends on the margin. If the GOP has the Senate 51-49 I could see him staying in the party. This margin would give him quite a bit of power in cases where there is one GOP defection on a vote and he makes himself available to avoid a tie broken by Harris. Basically maintaining his current position as someone whose whims may need to be catered to and can be bought for the specter of bipartisanship.

Anything beyond 51 for the GOP I can see him switching to keep a seat at the table.
 
I think he switches at 51 to set himself up for 2024.
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
I think most people would be fine with just average chugging along politics, the way things were for last few decades. One party now is out for absolute power while enacting a bunch of extreme shit that the majority of citizens don’t want, makes election a bigger deal.
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The average citizen has no idea what the Republicans are doing to permanently seize power.
 
WFFaithful said:
The average citizen has no idea what the Republicans are doing to permanently seize power.
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Yeah. They just assume they’ll be able to vote Republicans out like normal in two years.
 
I am very disappointed that Budd, Hines, and Walker are going to be members of Congress. Each are embarrassing for different reasons. Unlike the last Republican-controlled Congress, the MAGA wing will be in control this time. They are going to have to answer to voters that they've conned with multiple conspiracy theories and insane rhetoric. It's going to be full blown Idiocracy.
 
It will be interesting to see if McConnell will be Senate Leader or somebody else runs/wins instead of him. Rick Scott maybe?
 
I saw John Thune as the 2nd most likely (after McConnell). A distant 2nd.
 
The hubris of Pubs to whine about wait times in heavily Republican areas like Maricopa County...
 
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