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Midterm election predictions

Who will win Congress?

  • Dems retain House & Senate

    Votes: 2 3.6%

  • Dems win House / Pubs win Senate

    Votes: 2 3.6%

  • Pubs win House / Dems win Senate

    Votes: 22 40.0%

  • Pubs win House & Senate

    Votes: 29 52.7%
  • Total voters
    55
  • Poll closed .
Deacsfan27 said:
I would much prefer Biden to not run for a second term.
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Who you got for 2024? Which candidate is worth dividing the party and spending billions of dollars in a primary for?
 
PhDeac said:
Who you got for 2024? Which candidate is worth dividing the party and spending billions of dollars in a primary for?
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That is the problem right? I'm not really sure. I want somebody who can energize and galvanize the base again.

Biden probably offers the best odds for a Democrat to stay in the presidency, so from that viewpoint I understand the want for another term.

Not sure who, aside from Biden, gives us a chance at beating Trump again.
 
I worry about '24.

Nothing gets "fixed" until Trump just goes away. And even then, it seems like we may be past the point of no return when it comes to political civility and any real bipartisanship.

GOP struggles because it is still largely Trump's party and his presence means you can't really rock the boat.
Dems have to focus on electability (beating Trump), which is how we ended up with Biden in the first place. Alternative is bringing Hillary back, which is really just more of the same.

I don't know if the bench is truly that thin at both parties, or if it is just that none of the younger folks ever get a shot on a bigger stage. Probably a bit of both.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I would much prefer Biden to not run for a second term.
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He wont, but he cant announce that before the midterms. He would have tanked them even more so.

I am really curious what the Republicans are going to impeach Biden for in the next 2 years. Probably Afghanistan, but I am hoping student loans.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
That is the problem right? I'm not really sure. I want somebody who can energize and galvanize the base again.

Biden probably offers the best odds for a Democrat to stay in the presidency, so from that viewpoint I understand the want for another term.

Not sure who, aside from Biden, gives us a chance at beating Trump again.
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This post is a short version of this sketch.

 
Buttigieg polls well and I think would stand a chance. Not the biggest fan, but I think he's a candidate that gives a lot of surbananites the excuse to split tickets if Trump is the GOP candidate.

In the same vein, and if we haven't had our fill of OWG yet, Cooper could potentially do well. Winning NC twice, both in elections with Trump on the ballot, is a pretty big feather in his cap. Granted he ran against two horrendous GOP candidates each time, but still. He's shown no desire to run, though.

These both presuppose Biden doesn't run and this isn't me saying that I would be over the moon with a President Buttigieg or Cooper.
 
Yeah I realize that was a word mumbo-jumbo of no substance. The issue that I am mentally grappling with is that Biden gives us the best chance to win, but I want somebody younger and galvanizing to run. I guess I could get behind Pete, because he could steal some "centrists" away.
 
Keep an eye on Josh Shapiro. Shouldn't run that soon, but I could see him building some momentum.
 
Is he the guy who went somewhat viral on Twitter the past few days for a really good speech?
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Yeah I realize that was a word mumbo-jumbo of no substance. The issue that I am mentally grappling with is that Biden gives us the best chance to win, but I want somebody younger and galvanizing to run. I guess I could get behind Pete, because he could steal some "centrists" away.
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Sure. Same as 2020. Democrats want 2008 Obama but there’s no one close and Republicans aren’t going to let someone emerge like that without heavily smearing them first to establish a narrative. That’s why AOC has been their enemy since day 1.
 
Even though I'd prefer a progressive who more closely aligns with my views, I'd be fine with Pete, Shapiro, or anybody who provides appeal with an opportunity to siphon off moderates (although if you're a moderate torn between Donald/Desantis and insert any random Democrat, I don't know if you're actually moderate at all).
 
AZ shifting towards Kelly hard on PredictIt in the last 30 minutes
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Is he the guy who went somewhat viral on Twitter the past few days for a really good speech?
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totally invisible candicacy in the mid-state other than signs but he's the real deal. A friend of mine used to head the teacher's union in Cumberland county and says he's great.
 
RJ was a big believer in PredictIt so in his honor I will watch it throughout the day despite it meaning jack shit
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Even though I'd prefer a progressive who more closely aligns with my views, I'd be fine with Pete, Shapiro, or anybody who provides appeal with an opportunity to siphon off moderates (although if you're a moderate torn between Donald/Desantis and insert any random Democrat, I don't know if you're actually moderate at all).
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I don’t think a moderate is any more likely to peel off right-leaning voters than a progressive. Actually they may be less likely depending on how good of a messenger they are.

A firebrand progressive change agent will be more likely to siphon off voters than milquetoast moderate.

A moderate with a good message will be more likely to siphon off voters than a progressive with a muddled message.
 
Screamindemon3 said:
RJ was a big believer in PredictIt so in his honor I will watch it throughout the day despite it meaning jack shit
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Are you using RJ as a surrogate for yourself? Don’t you remember your posting of Predictit two years ago when Trump climbed and you counted it out, the it all came crashing down. People and money are idiots, people still had like 30 cents trump would be president in January.
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
Are you using RJ as a surrogate for yourself? Don’t you remember your posting of Predictit two years ago when Trump climbed and you counted it out, the it all came crashing down. People and money are idiots, people still had like 30 cents trump would be president in January.
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Yes, this is DeacInFrance for the day.
 
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