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Midterm election predictions

Who will win Congress?

  • Dems retain House & Senate

    Votes: 2 3.6%

  • Dems win House / Pubs win Senate

    Votes: 2 3.6%

  • Pubs win House / Dems win Senate

    Votes: 22 40.0%

  • Pubs win House & Senate

    Votes: 29 52.7%
  • Total voters
    55
  • Poll closed .
Screamindemon3 said:
Why would any voter give a fuck about January 6th when voting in this election? Those morons are being dealt with and justice will be served. You really expect Americans to care about an event two years ago more so that the current economic crisis that is crippling much of the country?

I see it 52-48 when it’s all said an done tomorrow night/Wednesday morning
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Those "morons" represent way more of the GOP than most would care to admit, and nothing about how the prosecution process has gone so far brings me any hope that attempted coups in the future will be deterred. So I think it's a little crazy to want to vote in that same party to handle the House and the Senate.

Also, I will look forward to the GOP strategy to fight inflation and lower gas prices. The rest of the world will wait to see what they do, so they can also use those tactics. This is occurring everywhere, not just in America, and almost certainly not due to policies implemented by Democrats.

Unfortunately I think the GOP gets the House and Senate tonight. The only hope I have there is that the polling out there is as bad as it was during the special elections, because they all were drastically inaccurate in forecasting GOP wins.
 
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BarcaDeac said:
I don't understand the split tickets in this day and age. Like how are both Kari Lake and Mark Kelly predicted to win? And Kemp should sail in GA and maybe Warnock wins? Fucking rubes all over the place.
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Kemp / Warnock I get.

Kemp sucks, but stood up to Trump. People might be willing to still support him, but not willing to go full crazy with Walker.
 
How is it that Warnock and Fetterman aren't viewed as overall shitty candidates ?
 
Because in elections you are comparing candidates and picking the best option.

In a vacuum they may not be great candidates, but compared to their opponent they are clearly the better option (obviously in my opinion, results may differ tonight haha).

Would somebody else aside from Warnock have tonight locked up already? I don't think so.
 
What's wrong with Warnock? I see the issues with Fetterman, but he's still obviously a better choice than Oz.
 
January 6 is an ongoing investigation. Voting for Republicans is voting for them to do everything possible to stop that investigation and halt prosecutions and not accept the results of the 2024 election unless the Republican wins.
 
Well gas is too damn expensive Ph, so I guess I have to take that risk and pull the GOP lever.
 
Walker might be the worst candidate to ever run that might actually win. Like those random conspiracy theory people that trick 100 people to signature them onto a ballot and normally get like 16 votes. In this case though that candidate is getting millions of votes.
 
Kemp is going to win easily today in Georgia. I think the guy is kind of a donk, but the perception is that he's done a good job.

The Senate race is certainly more interesting. Anecdotally, I've definitely encountered a lot of folks who didn't know how they were going to vote in that one. I can't find anyone that actually thinks Walker is a good candidate. And I don't get the sense that folks dislike Warnock. But I have heard a fair amount of "I just want the Republicans to control the Senate, and that means I have to hold my nose and vote for Walker." That's feels like a terrible way to approach the election of an individual Senate seat, but I'll be surprised if Warnock can pull out a victory given my belief that Abrams is going to lose badly.

It is kind of hard for me to marry the two campaigns of Kemp and Walker. Kemp is running on the Georgia economy being a relative outperformer given the lack of COVID restrictions during the pandemic... But Walker is focusing on linking Warnock to Biden and the belief that he is destroying the economy and infringing upon freedom. Kind of a juxtaposition, but I guess it worked?
 
People are definitely embarrassed by Walker given the lack of signs that usually are proudly displayed by republicans around here. That means absolutely nothing though and those same people will definitely vote for him.
 
fivethirtyeight.com

Final Election Update: The Forecast Is More Or Less Back Where It Started

When we launched our midterms forecast on June 30, Republicans had a 53 percent chance of taking over the Senate from Democrats, and an 87 percent chance of tak…
fivethirtyeight.com fivethirtyeight.com

While I have increasingly grown irritated with Silver's takes on Twitter (especially regarding COVID and stuff he isn't an expert on), I still use 538 polls a good bit.

Final update has Walker at 63% and Oz at 57%.

Truly in the bad place if both of those occur.
 
A friend who follows 538 more than I do said Silver made some dramatic changes to his projections yesterday. PA went from 56-44 Fettermam on Sunday to 57-43 Oz on Monday.
 
I mean republicans dumped like 20 polls showing Oz and Walker ahead that got gobbled up into their algorithm and Silver was like meh dems should do it too and balance it out. It’s pretty easy to see the plan is to have polls predict a red outcome and if outcome doesn’t materialize it’s stop the steal and lawsuit bonanza redux.
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
I mean republicans dumped like 20 polls showing Oz and Walker ahead that got gobbled up into their algorithm and Silver was like meh dems should do it too and balance it out. It’s pretty easy to see the plan is to have polls predict a red outcome and if outcome doesn’t materialize it’s stop the steal and lawsuit bonanza redux.
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republicans are so much better at this than Dems

it's disgusting.
 
PhDeac said:
A friend who follows 538 more than I do said Silver made some dramatic changes to his projections yesterday. PA went from 56-44 Fettermam on Sunday to 57-43 Oz on Monday.
Click to expand...
Yes, for a while he had the Dems with a 66% chance of retaining the Senate and then over the weekend it went to 59% R's taking the Senate. Amazing how Republicans can talk about Fetterman being brain dead but then say they don't care about Walker's intelligence. Also amazing that the party that claims to be about the working man and real Americans relies almost solely on the extremely rich and celebrities to run for office.

I spent so much time being concerned about PA and GA I didn't even realize how close NV and AZ have become.
 
I'm pretty sure that regardless of the outcome of the elections today, there will be losers that contest the results.

I don't think it's a good thing, even though I have concerns about corruption, but that's what you do when you lose a close election these days.
 
I stopped listening and believing polls years ago. There are many tight races everywhere and its ass thinking anyone knows which way things will turn.
 
I do think that the polls this time around will be as inaccurate as we've seen in a while, but as pointed out above, that's by design from the GOP.
 
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