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Next year’s football team

A shame that he's been made of glass the past two years. He would've masked a lot of our defensive woes this season.
 
clawson did mention greer as a guy who coming back for their 5th year, but of course things can change especially as he gets more information.

i'm not sure any of us on the board have any real insight into his draft / nfl prospects.
 
IAppreciateIt said:
clawson did mention greer as a guy who coming back for their 5th year, but of course things can change especially as he gets more information.

i'm not sure any of us on the board have any real insight into his draft / nfl prospects.
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Greer has legit NFL speed and skill, but players also get evaluated on their durability. Greer has played in 8 games (he apparently played a few snaps against Pitt, but did not record a stat) over WF's last 23 games. Greer has talent, but not the kind of talent that NFL teams will give him pass for missing so many games.
 
Pilchard said:
Greer has legit NFL speed and skill, but players also get evaluated on their durability. Greer has played in 8 games (he apparently played a few snaps against Pitt, but did not record a stat) over WF's last 23 games. Greer has talent, but not the kind of talent that NFL teams will give him pass for missing so many games.
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That certainly seems logical. But you don't know that. I hate pulling up old posts but it took 30 seconds to find you state definitely that Dortch would be drafted and Surratt would be a productive player. It's not just you -- none of us have any clue how teams evaluate players which is why we are consistently way off on what will happen to guys at the professional level.

For example: https://www.ogboards.com/forums/showthread.php/29217-Jessie-Bates-Declares-for-NFL-Draft

I'm definitely not saying I think Greer should leave or any other prognostications. But if he said he was coming back but changes his mind but ends up changing his mind and goes pro, I'm going to assume there's a good reason behind it.
 
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Pilchard said:
Greer has legit NFL speed and skill, but players also get evaluated on their durability. Greer has played in 8 games (he apparently played a few snaps against Pitt, but did not record a stat) over WF's last 23 games. Greer has talent, but not the kind of talent that NFL teams will give him pass for missing so many games.
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Agreed, if he comes back and shows some durability, he could be a Jesse Bates type draft pick in 2023. He goes this year, he will probably be a UFA with little hope of making a roster. Jesse Bates had the talent and durability that the NFL wants to see.
 
Some key things I'd like to see next year if we are going to make another run at the ACC championship.

Offense

Gameplanning for aggressive defenses. As good as Ruggiero was, this was a problem. Against Clemson and Pitt (and State, at least in the beginning) we did not seem to have any kind of playcalls that would help alleviate pressure besides going away from the RPO a bit. I want to see more quick-hitting plays to RB and TE and screens against aggressive defenses. We need to have this schemed before we play these teams - next season, State and Clemson should still have great defenses. UNC and FSU should be competent.

Sam increasing his completion %. He ended the season 11th in the ACC at 58.9. A lot of this seems to be scheme related and this sort of plays off of the last point. While the big-hitting plays are awesome, we were not winning enough 1-on-1 outside match ups against better teams late in the season, and rarely got big PI penalties. Would like to see more slants, screens, quick patterns out of the backfield. This should also decrease interceptions - the ratio was only 14/11 for the last 5 ACC games, not counting Rutgers. It was 22/3 for all the games before North Carolina

Better team YPC. The Deacs had a 4.0 YPC for the team, which was towards the bottom of the ACC. Want to see a better YPC from the RBs in particular. Ellison actually ended the season at 5.1, which is better than guys like Shipley and Durant. Assuming he will be the lead RB next season.

Defense

Become a mid-table rushing defense. This season we were 12th in YPG and YPC rushing allowed, giving up 195/game and a 4.9 average. Only Duke and Virginia were worse. We have to improve this next season to make it tougher on opposing offenses, as our pass defense was quite good overall. This should be Lambert's No.1 focus.

Tackling. I don't think these stats are available, but there were so many critical missed tackles this season. I can remember several in particular from Clemson and North Carolina that could have changed the game. We have to be a better tackling team in '22 both in wrapping up and being in position to make the first tackle.

Special Teams

Kickoffs into the end zone. This almost cost us the State game and it started to really affect the coverage units towards the end of the season, as we started to squib more and give up field position. I don't know who Sciba's replacement is, but we need a guy with a stronger leg so that opposing kickoffs are basically non-existent.

What needs to continue

Turnover margin. We were one of the best teams in the country in both turnovers forced and overall margin. We need to be tops again next season, as even when the defense was giving up yards they kept forcing turnovers that kept us in games.

Third-down conversion. We were the best in the ACC at converting on third-down. Want to be top-3 again next season.

Fourth-down conversion. We were 3rd in the ACC at converting on 4th. Would like to see Clawson maybe get even more aggressive on 4th down next season when we are underdogs.

Punt returns. Morin has become an excellent returner, and hope he can pop one next season in a big game. We were 2nd in the ACC in punt return average.

Coaching. We have one of the best coaches in college football, and this will continue to pay dividends as a lot of the ACC is deficient in this area or has complete unknowns. Teams like BC/Cuse/FSU/Duke/Louisville have a lot to prove here.

Outlook

I expect us to be right in the mix again for the Atlantic division. We should be no worse than 3rd in preseason outlook for the division. This may be the season we have to get over the Clemson hump, playing them at home when they have lost a lot of elite coaches and a bit of talent. @State will be a huge game. Will FSU/BC/Syracuse be better? Louisville seems to be stuck in 3rd gear, sucks that Cunningham is coming back. North Carolina is losing Howell, and that game is at home. OOC slate all looks very winnable.

X-Factors
Is there more to squeeze out of Hartman? Or have we seen his ceiling
Who is the go-to RB
Who will be the No.2 WR next to Perry
Some guys will need to emerge in the front-7 on defense. Still hoping for a transfer or 2 into the program here.
Adequate replacement for Sciba with a stronger leg
 
Will Ellison be our starter over Turner? Will that be decided in spring? Will they rotate starts?
 
Greer to the draft is official, he just tweeted it. I think he has the talent to make it on an NFL roster, but he's certainly going to have to prove it over the next few months with how many games he has missed with injury.
 
DeacDaddy said:
Will Ellison be our starter over Turner? Will that be decided in spring? Will they rotate starts?
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I’m sure the “starter” will be decided in the spring and the fall. Also not sure it will matter much since we have no reason to believe we won’t see a very even split as we have in the last. Will be interesting to see whether Cooley or someone else becomes the third guy.
 
PaddyWF said:
X-Factors
Is there more to squeeze out of Hartman? Or have we seen his ceiling
Who is the go-to RB
Who will be the No.2 WR next to Perry
Some guys will need to emerge in the front-7 on defense. Still hoping for a transfer or 2 into the program here.
Adequate replacement for Sciba with a stronger leg
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I mean these are all somewhat legitimate questions, but the only one that really is going to determine how the season goes is the 4th one and any other ones about the defense. I actually think Bothroyd and Davis will be two really good ACC DEs next season, but we need some people to step up at DT and LB for next season.

As for your other X-factors, I feel as though they are all pretty straightforward:

Hartman is an All ACC level QB, we don't need to squeeze any more out of him, although I'm sure he'll continue to improve somewhat.

I can't even remember the last time we had someone I'd call the go-to RB, and we won't have one next year either. It'll be a combo of Ellison, Turner, and whoever steps up of the younger guys.

It seems obvious to me Greene will be the other go-to guy alongside Perry, but I also think we will continue to be spoiled by really good slot receiver play with Williams

Matthew Dennis is already on the team and will almost certainly be the next guy up after Sciba. Kicker is another position we have been spoiled at under Clawson (Weaver/Sciba), but Dennis was highly regarded out of high school I'm fairly sure.
 
It seems the after season player/coaches discussions are likely in progress.
 
PaddyWF said:
Turnover margin. We were one of the best teams in the country in both turnovers forced and overall margin. We need to be tops again next season, as even when the defense was giving up yards they kept forcing turnovers that kept us in games.

Who will be the No.2 WR next to Perry
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A few thoughts here:

-There is so much variability to turnover margin that I highly doubt we’ll see a repeat next year. Would expect most Clawson teams to fare well on this department given focus on discipline and ball security but will be really hard to replicate next year.
-Greene was arguably slated to be the #1 guy this year before the injury. He should be a 1a/1b type pairing with Perry if both are healthy. Will be fun to watch.
 
WRS said:
There is so much variability to turnover margin that I highly doubt we’ll see a repeat next year. Would expect most Clawson teams to fare well on this department given focus on discipline and ball security but will be really hard to replicate next year.
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I know this debate has been had 1000 times here and elsewhere, but I think it's more complicated than saying that turnover margin is volatile year over year and thereby likely to regress to the mean.

If you can pair together: A QB who protects the ball well, RBs/WRs who emphasize not fumbling the ball, and a defense that prioritizes causing turnovers (both fumbles and INTs) then you are going to have a good turnover margin. Now, maybe it regresses from being top 20 in turnover margin to top 40, but I doubt a Clawson team is going to be average or below average in turnover margin unless he has a QB that throws a lot of INTs.

It's also worth noting that if Sam hadn't thrown 7 of his 15 picks in the Pitt/NCST games alone, and instead had only thrown 1-2 INTs in those games, we are top 5 in turnover margin this year instead of top 20.
 
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DeacDaddy said:
Will Ellison be our starter over Turner? Will that be decided in spring? Will they rotate starts?
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This is going to be the most fun competition of the offseason, IMO.

Ellison should be the starter. He was our best all-around back this year and will be ready for a bigger role. I expect Turner and Cooley to split time behind him. Cooley has the bigger upside at over 210 lbs. and he runs angry. I hope we see him in short-yardage packages, and not the heavy Deac. My assumption would be that one of Carney or Claiborne end up redshirting, but excited to see what they can do.
 
Regarding this turnover convo, I will note that I think our focus on stripping the ball hurts our tackling immensely. Go back and watch some of the major missed tackles in the Clemson and UNC games and it was because our players were focusing on stripping the ball and not getting the runner down.
 
wakelaw13 said:
This is going to be the most fun competition of the offseason, IMO.

Ellison should be the starter. He was our best all-around back this year and will be ready for a bigger role. I expect Turner and Cooley to split time behind him. Cooley has the bigger upside at over 210 lbs. and he runs angry. I hope we see him in short-yardage packages, and not the heavy Deac. My assumption would be that one of Carney or Claiborne end up redshirting, but excited to see what they can do.
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I know RB is a flashy position, but I don't get why people fixate on this as Wake fans. Under Clawson, here is how the top RB carries have broken down by season:

2021: CBS 131, Turner 126, Ellison 107
2020: CBS 142, Walker 119
2019: Newman 180 (QB but leading rusher), Carney 158, Walker 98
2018: Carney 188, Colburn 159
2017: Colburn 166, Byrd 77, Carney 63 (Only played 8 games and majority of Byrd carries were in games he missed)
2016: Carney 156, Colburn 151
2015: Bell 129, Colburn 66
2014: Robinson 98, Wortham 84, Reynolds 69

So I guess we had a legitimate starting RB in 2015, and Colburn got the bulk of the carries in 2017 due to Carney injuries. But other than that, the RB carries get split close to evenly. Ellison, Turner, and at least one other guy will all get a lot of carries next season.
 
does anyone have stats on our turnover margin by year?

with the greer news, we are now only a single scholarship over the 85 limit.

JAEGER BULL is the only reported offer out to a transfer candidate, which i'm not sure is surprising or not.
 
Hartman is an All-ACC QB bur he certainly has a lot of room for improvement.
 
deacon14 said:
2021: 13th, +0.7
2020: 19th, +0.8
2019: 11th, +0.8
2018: 78th, -0.2
2017: 16th, +0.7
2016: 10th, +0.8
2015: 121st, -1.2
2014: 57th, 0.0

So other than young QBs throwing a lot of INTs, we rank in the top 20 every year.

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/turnover-margin-per-game?date=2015-01-12
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TO margin is often referred to as a "luck" stat. In many cases, including for WF under Clawson, it's not a luck stat. WF has been + in TO margin 5 of the last 6 years. This is a point of emphasis for the Deacs both on offense and defense.
 
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