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Next year's rotation

I'd love to see IAI's lineup. I do sense that I was a little overzealous in cutting TC's minutes and he'll be closer to 15-20 than 12.

OGB's looks pretty good. As do those of Stonz and Ph.

And Phonso and Atlanta sort of captured my thoughts around the bottom of the rotation, and 11 combined minutes for those 4 guys may have even been a little generous. I'll make some adjustments (conservatively taking away just 10 of TC's minutes for now even though it could easily be 15) and tell me if you have any further tweaks beyond that:

CMM - 20, TC - 20
CJ - 30, Fischer - 7, CMM - 3
Mckie - 12, CJ - 3, Fischer - 8, Rountree - 6, Moto - 11
Mckie - 20, Moto - 7, Thomas - 10, Cavanaugh - 3
Derosiers - 25, Thomas - 15

CJ - 33
Mckie - 32
Derosiers - 25
Thomas - 25
CMM - 23
Chennault - 20
Moto - 18
Fischer - 15
Rountree - 6
Cavanaugh - 3
Green/Wash/Fields - spot

8 man main rotation, a few minutes for Rountree and Cavanugh, and spot minutes for the last 3.

33 minutes for seniors
77 minutes for juniors
15 minutes for sophomores
75 minutes for frosh

1.34 years experience on average (would be 265th this year)
This year, we have 1.36 years experience (263rd)

So, the youth "excuse" is undeniably a fact, even moreso than disclosed above if Rountree/Cav/CMM/Washington get more minutes than the above projection.
 
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So we're already pulling out the youth excuse? Fantastic.

That said, I think the projected rotation is pretty accurate, but I will say that I think Fischer will probably get some of the minutes allotted for Rountree and maybe a few of Moto's too. I would anticipate him being at 18ish.
 
How does Rountree's game compare to levy? Much more polished offensively? Can he play d and rebound like Levy? Does the comparison stop at body frame?
 
TBR said:
So we're already pulling out the youth excuse? Fantastic.

That said, I think the projected rotation is pretty accurate, but I will say that I think Fischer will probably get some of the minutes allotted for Rountree and maybe a few of Moto's too. I would anticipate him being at 18ish.
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Well, I'd get ready for it because it actually applies to next year's roster. We likely ARE going to really really young in terms of minutes per graduation class.

It's not so much of an excuse as a reality; it's really hard to win ACC conference games relying heavily on freshmen. It happens of course, but I'm not counting on it.
 
IAppreciateIt said:
Ideally, imo:

PG CMM 30 Harris 10
SG Harris 25 Fischer 15
SF Moto 20 Fischer 5 Rountree 10 McKie 5
PF McKie 25 Cavanaugh 15
C Thomas 25 Desrosiers 15

Harris: 35
McKie: 30
CMM: 30
Thomas: 25
Moto: 20
Fischer: 20
Desrosiers: 15
Cavanaugh: 15
Rountree: 10

Anyone else would only play because of injury, foul trouble or in garbage time.
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This would make me happy.
 
IAI's scenario would mean our youth isn't an excuse, but an asset.
 
KidA23 said:
Well, I'd get ready for it because it actually applies to next year's roster. We likely ARE going to really really young in terms of minutes per graduation class.

It's not so much of an excuse as a reality; it's really hard to win ACC conference games relying heavily on freshmen. It happens of course, but I'm not counting on it.
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It's just going to be a little difficult to stomach "but we're young" 3 years in a row.
 
I will say there's a reason most of these teams aren't very good, and that bringing in someone capable of better (or those players shooting better) is necessary for the teams at the bottom of the ACC to improve. But here's the list of the guys you mentioned in sorted order, showing TC is even near the bottom of that list. He still may get a decent amount of minutes, but he's got to pose more of a threat than being a 27% 3-point shooter even while showing discretion with just 1.5 attempts per game.

eFG:
L. Jackson 54.7
A. Young 51.4
T. Stoglin 50.7
S. Larkin 45.4
M. Udofia 45.3
D. Hudson 45.2
R. Brown 44.9
TC 43.9
M. Humprhey 43.8
M. Grant 43.1
J. Daniels 42.3
 
KidA23 said:
This one. The vast majority of guards in the bottom-half of the ACC would love to have Tony's eFG%:

GT's starting PG, Mfon Udofia, is shooting 38.8% overall and 31% from 3 in 31 MPG.

BC has 3 guards who play at least 20 minutes per night. Matt Humphrey is shooting 34.8% overall and 31.8% from 3 in 30 MPG. Lonnie Jackson, is shooting 39.9% overall in 27 MPG. Jordan Daniels is shooting 33.9% overall and 32.6% from 3 in 23 MPG.

Dorenzo Hudson, VT's starting SG, is shooting 39.7% overall and 31.3% from 3 in 27 MPG. VT's 3rd guard, freshman Robert Brown, is at 36.4% from the field in 22.5 MPG.

Andre Young? 40.9% overall, 35.6% from 3 in 35 MPG.

Terrell Stoglin? 42.2% from the floor. Pe'Shon Howard? 36.9% from the floor in a team-leading 32.9 MPG. Maryland's other guards, Mosley and Faust, are at 40.1% and 34.7% overall, respectively.

And 2 of Miami's 3 core guards, Malcolm Grant and Shane Larkin, are at 33.3% and 35.7% overall, respectively.


Most college guards don't shoot impressive percentages. The exceptions are exceptions for a reason. Erick Green, Glen Rice Jr., CJ Harris, Durant Scott...these are these teams' respective standouts. But the vast majority of rotation guards for bottom-half ACC schools don't break 40%.
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KidA,

Most of the above is pretty misleading since you seem to focus on fg% instead of eFG%. The latter is much more important (and much more damning for Chennault). Looking at eFG%...

Among ACC players who have played at least 60% of their team's minutes, Tony is 40th out of 47 in eFG%. That's awful.

Andre Young and Terrell Stoglin are both over 50% in eFG%. They've been a couple of the best guards in the league this year...not sure why you brought them up.

Udofia is considered a horrifically bad shooter, and he has a higher eFG% than Tony. As does Dorenzo Hudson. As does Robert Brown. As does Sean Mosley. As does Shane Larkin.

Lonnie Jackson's eFG% is over 50%.

So yea, Tony has been a better shooter this year than a slumping Malcolm Grant, a freshman Nick Faust, and a couple of Boston College's scrubs. In my world, that's awful.
 
TBR said:
It's just going to be a little difficult to stomach "but we're young" 3 years in a row.
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I don't disagree there. What [Redacted] has done by having two seasons as bad as these last two is make it so that he has to provide results in spite of the youth rather than being able to just point to better things ahead and shrug it off.

I think we're likely 17-13 (6-10) or somewhere in that vicinity next year. I'm not sure what that does for his future or the overall sanity of our fan base. It could lead to a 4th year while he's still soundly disliked, a purgatory of sorts for our program.
 
So based on all reports, Washington is another dud 7 footer? I'd hope he could give us a few serviceable minutes per game, but apparently not. As terrible as we are inside, I would certainly hope he and Cavanaugh could challenge for PT. In my eyes, there is no way Carson is going to be any more than just serviceable in his time at WFU. We aren't recruiting a single big man apparently for 2013, so I guess it may be 2014 before we see a potentially dominant big man at Wake? Or is Thomas going to hopefully be that guy?
 
Very few 7 footers contribute as freshmen.
 
I think Washington will be very good. He is just going to need a year in an ACC weight room. Same thing Ty Walker should have done.
 
Just for reference what's the difference in eFG% and FG%? I honestly don't have a clue
 
dubs21 said:
How does Rountree's game compare to levy? Much more polished offensively? Can he play d and rebound like Levy? Does the comparison stop at body frame?
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Rountree is a guard whose best attribute is his court vision and length on defense. Handles well for his size, but is not a scorer. Point forward.
 
FG% is obviously very straightforward. It's the % of a player's shots that he makes.

The issue with FG% is that it ignores the huge difference between taking 2 pointers and taking 3 pointers. Think about it...shooting 40% from 3 (120 points per 100 shots) is clearly better than shooting 45% from 2 (90 points per 100 shots), yet FG% completely ignores this issue.

eFG% fixes this. I'll let basketball reference explain more clearly:

Effective Field Goal Percentage; the formula is (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal. For example, suppose Player A goes 4 for 10 with 2 threes, while Player B goes 5 for 10 with 0 threes. Each player would have 10 points from field goals, and thus would have the same effective field goal percentage (50%).
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So, relevant to this discussion...

Tony Chennault:
2 pt FGs: 80-180 (44%)
3 pt FGs: 11-40 (28%)
FG%: 41%
eFG%: 44%

versus, say, Andre Young:

2 pt FGs: 55-113 (49%)
3 pt FGs: 58-163 (36%)
FG%: 41%
eFG%: 51%

As you can see, Young clearly shoots significantly better then Chennault from inside the line and outside the line. But because 3 pointers are more difficult, and he takes way more of them, his overall FG% is actually the same as Tony's. Looking at eFG%, its easy to tell who is shooting better.

(Apologies for the thread derail)
 
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Although Jamaal may have been even skinnier than Tree, he was able to cover 3s/4s/ Tree can cover 2s, 3s and with another long wing maybe even a little point.
 
I think Cavanaugh could very well be the biggest surprise next year. His stats are comparable to his teammate Coleman, plus he is going against him in practice every day.
 
Not meaning to hijack, but can CMM Tree or Moto shoot the 3? Their profiles list 3's as areas of improvement but I have no idea when that was written. I'm still concerned about offense because it seems like none of them are labeled as scorers. Who do you guys think will fill that out of those three?
 
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