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NIT Bound?

bym051d said:
I remember a different culture when we thought a CBI invite would be a slap in the face and something below us.
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WE still do, but the program was devastated by taking in a lot of players we shouldn't have. Sometimes yu has to start at a place you wouldn't thought worthy to get back to where you were.
 
RJKarl said:
WE still do, but the program was devastated by taking in a lot of players we shouldn't have. Sometimes yu has to start at a place you wouldn't thought worthy to get back to where you were.
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Maybe. Or maybe this is a symptom of the disease "lowered expectations."

That said, I think we take a CBI Invite this year if we can get into it.
 
It's not about lowered expectations. It's about being realistic this year. Next year we should be knocking on the door of The Dance. After that we should expect to be in The Dance every years or at least five out of every six years (you can't predict injuries).
 
Now that the NIT is a legit tournament, there's no chance we make it this year. But I agree that any postseason invite would be good for this team.

There's actually a 4th postseason tournament, by the way -- the Collegeinsider.com tournament -- but it has been pretty much limited to mid-majors.
 
RJKarl said:
It's not about lowered expectations. It's about being realistic this year.
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Your second sentence is what is often used to justify the first sentence. No one - not even the all wiserZ rj - can say definitively whether accepting a CBI bid is lowered expectations or being realistic, but we'll all know for sure in a couple years.
 
I think we'd need to go ~8-8 (or better) in ACC play to make the NIT, which has a ~2% chance of happening, according to my boy KenPom. Even 7-9 has less than a 10% chance of happening.
 
IrishSlim said:
Your second sentence is what is often used to justify the first sentence. No one - not even the all wiserZ rj - can say definitively whether accepting a CBI bid is lowered expectations or being realistic, but we'll all know for sure in a couple years.
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It's not about next year or two or three years from now. It's about this year.

If we end up at .500 for this season. We have exceeded almost everyone's realistic expectations for this year's team.

We won't be able to say that next year.

But what should I expect from a lifelong fan of the Queens. :)
 
And speaking of, using a monte carlo simulation and kenpom ratings, here is our probability distribution for ACC wins:

Code: 
Wins	Probability
2	1.87%
3	12.85%
4	28.54%
5	30.44%
6	17.91%
7	6.60%
8	1.54%
9	0.24%
10	0.02%
11	0
12	0
 
Say Hey Deac said:
Now that the NIT is a legit tournament, there's no chance we make it this year. But I agree that any postseason invite would be good for this team.

There's actually a 4th postseason tournament, by the way -- the Collegeinsider.com tournament -- but it has been pretty much limited to mid-majors.
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Sort of like never say never. There is still enough games left to play our way in (in theory at this point we could win enough to make the NCAA's as well), now your belief about that happening is something different.

Beat:

Clemson home and away
GT home and away
Miami away
BC at home
UVA away

That would make us 9-7 in the ACC (primarily beating up on the bottom of the conference with one quality win vs. UVA). We'd finish the season at 18-12. Win an ACCT game we'd be 10-8 in the ACC and 19-13 overall.

More importantly this would have us with 7 road wins.

Is this going to happen? Probably not, but is it completely unrealistic? No.
 
0.24% qualifies as completely unrealistic in my book.
 
IrishSlim said:
0.24% qualifies as completely unrealistic in my book.
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How does Kenpom factor in Ty Walker's suspension for the 1st semester?

So I wonder if anyone has taken the Kenpom numbers and gone to Vegas and made a million off of them.

Not even sure why we play the games.

What was our chances of winning against VT before the game according to Kenpom.

Kenpom uses past games to predict future games, using this for over 300 Div I teams probably does well in total but I'd sure be interested to see how many 'predictions' he's correct on by individual teams.

My 'realistic' statement is related to where the wins need to come from. It's not unrealistic to say we could beat GT/Clemson/BC/Miami for 6 more wins. Then we only have to find one more win against an upper division team.

We have no margin of error and it's a lot to ask for this team to win 3 road games of those three, but these other teams are fully capable of losing at home.
 
Something's up with those numbers as posted. There can't be a 0.0% chance we end up with 11 or 12 wins (or 13, for that matter). Granted, it might be something like 0.000000001% or whatever, but it's not 0.0%.

I'm assuming the actual probability is too small for all the decimal places to be shown in the graphic.
 
Actually I think it's a difference between probability and possibility. While it's possible for us to win 11 or 12, Kenpom is saying the probability is 0.

If you add them up I believe they add to 100.1%, so the rounding error is up.
 
Deac83 said:
Beat:

UVA away
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Of all the things that are improbable to happen this year even up to this point (beating Duke on the road if it had happened for example), this is the most unlikely. I'll be pleased to score 50 on the road against UVA
 
I'd say UVA is beatable.

Their schedule has been completely soft. Best win is Michigan. Great game at dook but still lost the game.
 
They're all beatable. That's not the problem.
 
we've lost in charlottesville with much better teams against much worse hoo teams. a win there seems highly unlikely.
 
And we have lost consistently in Atlanta, but we'll need to win there this year.

I do think FSU is going to come in over confident. They lost to Yale but seem to have righted the ship. Then again Hamliton isn't kaye, so I could see FSU laying an egg in Winston.

So FSU and UVA seem to be our best option for a shot at 9 wins. Kind of hard to make any argument for @State after the beat down last week.

from a schedule perspective we need to win 2 of the next 5 (which includes FSU and UVA games). After that we have 4 of the last 6 at home with dook being the only game we probably have no shot at.

And again I'm not saying all this is going to happen, but there is a scenario that could get us to 9 ACC wins (i.e. one 'big' upset and sweeping the bottom of the conference).
 
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