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Official 2012 MLB POSTSEASON THREAD

RJKarl said:
Stats aren't hard....Ichiro has a great record against Coke and gives you a better chance to score once he gets on. Pinch hitting of Ibanez is a different story.

You simply dismiss the stats that don't fit your needs .
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...isn't that exactly what you're doing?
 
Not at all. Of all the hitters on the Yankees no one who was available had better numbers versus Coke than Ichiro did.

Then you add speed and base running and the stats become even more stilted.
 
Jonah Keri:

With Jose Valverde no longer the Tigers' closer, Jim Leyland turned to left-hander Phil Coke instead. There was some logic behind the move, with the next four batters due up going lefty-switch-lefty-lefty. But Coke's entry into the game also created an opportunity for the Yankees. Right-handed batters hit .396/.446/.604 this season off Coke, for a 1.050 OPS; by way of comparison, major league leader Joey Votto posted a 1.041 OPS this year, Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera .999. Coke's career splits aren't nearly that dramatic, with righty hitters posting an .802 OPS against him, lefties .623.

Under normal circumstances, this wouldn't be an easy situation to exploit. Players tend to fare significantly worse as pinch-hitters than when used as starters. Also, most teams tend to lack impact bats off the bench, let alone impact bats who happen to hold the specific advantage you're seeking. As luck would have it, the Yankees were in an absolutely perfect position to capitalize. Nick Swisher was riding the pine, having gone just 4-for-26 in the postseason while playing shaky defense. Rodriguez was also sitting, suffering through a slump that had lasted for weeks and failing to tally a single hit against a right-hander all postseason. There's a fine line that managers must straddle between honoring larger sample sizes (such as A-Rod's .924 OPS vs. lefties even in a down year for him and Swisher putting up solid numbers from both sides of the plate this season) and weighing recent results. Generally speaking, you don't want to get too worked up over, say, 26 at-bats.

Still, after weighing all of that, the tangible and intangible considerations, everything that might go into a binder and every instinct the manager might have … Girardi still made the wrong choice. There were two points during the ninth in which Girardi should have summoned a pinch-hitter. When Coke entered the game, Ichiro was the scheduled hitter. Pinch-hitting for him wouldn't have been a knock on Ichiro, who'd collected two hits to that point in the game to go with four other hits in the first two games of the ALCS and a .322 average in 67 regular-season games with the Yanks. It would have been a straight percentages play, banking on Coke making hitters look like a rich man's Miggy Cabrera and on A-Rod and Swisher being better than your typical hitters against left-handers. Throw in the fact that Leyland couldn't yank Coke from the game until the lefty had faced at least one batter, and Girardi had a chance to get a very favorable matchup. He declined, and Ichiro grounded out.

Girardi would get another chance to deploy his bench three batters later. Mark Teixiera singled and Robinson Cano did the same (breaking an 0-for-29 megaslump), bringing Ibanez to the plate with two on and two outs. Ibanez did hit his game-winning homer in that ALDS Game 3 off a lefty, Brian Matusz. He'd also hit .197 with no homers in 65 plate appearances against southpaws this season, with an ugly .639 OPS from 2009 through 2011 facing lefties. You could argue that the Tigers would have countered with a right-hander like Joaquin Benoit or Octavio Dotel if Girardi subbed in A-Rod for Ibanez. But this ignores Benoit's very even splits, and the Yankees being able to counter any conceivable move with Swisher the switch-hitter. Girardi leaving in Ibanez with the game on the line came down to pixie dust worship: Ibanez had been on fire, producing a series of huge hits for the Yankees over the past couple weeks. But he still might be the worst Yankee hitter on the roster against left-handers, and Coke offered a gigantic split ripe for exploiting. Never happened. Ibanez worked the count to 3-2, then Coke struck him out on a wicked slider to end the game.

There's no guarantee that using A-Rod or Swisher at some point would have salvaged the game for the Yankees. But the bottom line is that the Bombers are now one game from being ousted from the playoffs. And for one night at least, their manager didn't give them their best chance to win.
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RJKarl said:
Not at all. Of all the hitters on the Yankees no one who was available had better numbers versus Coke than Ichiro did.

Then you add speed and base running and the stats become even more stilted.
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Right, you're only looking at those stats that defend your position, and ignoring the stats phan posted, Coke's record against righties, and the matchups laid out by rj=mj.
 
You are talking GENERAL numbers RE: Ichiro versus specifics.

Specifically, Ichiro is a better choice.
 
avalon said:
Right, you're only looking at those stats that defend your position, and ignoring the stats phan posted, Coke's record against righties, and the matchups laid out by rj=mj.
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Because general numbers are less reflective than specifics.
 
RJKarl said:
Because general numbers are less reflective than specifics.
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If the sample size was anywhere close to the same, sure. But it isn't.

Also, phan posted specifics.

(You must love Charlie, btw. He is all about pitcher/batter matchups.)
 
RJKarl said:
Not at all. Of all the hitters on the Yankees no one who was available had better numbers versus Coke than Ichiro did.

Then you add speed and base running and the stats become even more stilted.
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TEAM SPEED FOR CHRIST SAKE? You got fuckin' goddamn little fuckin' fleas out there getting picked off trying to steal, gettin' thrown out, takin' runs away from ya. Ya get some big cocksockers that can hit the fuckin' ball out the ballpark and you can't make any goddamn mistakes."


http://www.hark.com/clips/npylfkhyxq-earl-weaver-tirade
 
I think I'm going to start calling avalon Alice Sweet
 
avalon said:
If the sample size was anywhere close to the same, sure. But it isn't.

Also, phan posted specifics.

(You must love Charlie, btw. He is all about pitcher/batter matchups.)
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Generics versus specifics.......it was RJ not phan....

most managers are about pitcher/batter matchups. I could care less how a pitcher does against a generic. I care about how he does against this guy.
 
JDawg said:
I think I'm going to start calling avalon Alice Sweet
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WTF did I just listen to?

Also, this guy brings up a good point:

Jonathan Bernhardt @jonbernhardt
The most ridiculous part of last night's Manager Wars was realizing Leyland gave Phil Coke over 100 PA against RHB this year.
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Leyland is an idiot. But the players worship him. Probably because of his irrational loyalty to his guys, no matter how terrible they are playing.
 
JDawg said:
TEAM SPEED FOR CHRIST SAKE? You got fuckin' goddamn little fuckin' fleas out there getting picked off trying to steal, gettin' thrown out, takin' runs away from ya. Ya get some big cocksockers that can hit the fuckin' ball out the ballpark and you can't make any goddamn mistakes."


http://www.hark.com/clips/npylfkhyxq-earl-weaver-tirade
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OMG, that was epic. Was that Jon Miller interviewing him?
 
RJKarl said:
Generics versus specifics.......it was RJ not phan....

most managers are about pitcher/batter matchups. I could care less how a pitcher does against a generic. I care about how he does against this guy.
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lol and this is why Joe Maddon makes em all look like idiots every year.
 
rjequalsmj said:
lol and this is why Joe Maddon makes em all look like idiots every year.
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And in this case you have two generics who are so bad they got taken out the line-up in the playoffs.

Pinch-hitting for Ichiro is great for people who aren't playing.
 
as usual, and how it's been for decades, bluefish is the man.

I won't hold my breath waiting for Joe Maddon or any real manager say,"I'm going to PH for a guy who has gotten on base against this pitcher 7 out of 13 times, is my best base runner when I'm down one run for either of two who each in terrible slumps because generic guys batting their way do better."
 
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