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OFFICIAL 2017 WORLD SERIES L.A. DODGERS VS. ASTROS THREAD

lol. Yes, it is generally considered worthless. Either your sample is too small, or to gather a large enough data set you would need a time period long enough that the data would no longer be current.
 
But it keeps playing out.

Obviously, 2-5 or 1-8 don't matter. When you get 20, 30, 40 ABs, they are indicative of what's more likely to happen.
 
How long does it take for an everyday player to accumulate 40 PAs against an individual pitcher?
 
MHBDemon said:
How long does it take for an everyday player to accumulate 40 PAs against an individual pitcher?
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As I said, I'd start taking a look at it at 20 ABs if the number is dramatically off one way or the other. As to getting to 40 PAs, you're looking at 8-10 starts.
 
RJKarl said:
As I said, I'd start taking a look at it at 20 ABs if the number is dramatically off one way or the other. As to getting to 40 PAs, you're looking at 8-10 starts.
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I would think a minimum of 10 starts. Pretty rare you are going to get through the lineup 4 times.
 
Depends on the where the guy bats and who he has played for.
 
RJKarl said:
Depends on the where the guy bats and who he has played for.
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And quite a few other things. Even if batters hit at the top of the order, don't miss starts, and never walk (because those aren't counted as ABs, but we can just assume you're talking PAs) and they're facing a pitcher from their conference who is getting 35 starts in a season (higher than most top level starters in the modern era), they're only likely to face them at most 8-12 times in a regular season. That's assuming all the highest level of times you can face each other. To get to the 20 benchmark you need those perfect conditions for two straight seasons. Typically it takes somewhere more like 5-7 years for average batter to face an average pitcher 20 times. Over the course of either respective player's career, that stretch likely either represents a massive incline or massive decline, depending on where it happens.

The splits aren't nearly as helpful as lefty/righty or home/away in terms of situational splits. Really aren't useful even when you do have a good sample size for the reasons listed above and the many others in the article.
 
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I'm pumped for this Series. The two best teams are playing. I'll take the Dodgers in 6.
 
RJKarl said:
But it keeps playing out.

Obviously, 2-5 or 1-8 don't matter. When you get 20, 30, 40 ABs, they are indicative of what's more likely to happen.
Click to expand...

https://books.google.com/books?id=FrUYdXKZFZwC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=twopage&q&f=false

RJ, if you are interested, go read Chapter 3, or just pages 71 through 80. The chapter says not even 60 PAs is enough to provide predictive value.

Also, chapter 2 disproves the "hot hand" theory though it says there is just a tiny bit of predictive value of hot and cold streaks for pitchers.
 
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Keuchel hasn’t looked like he has “it” tonight, but a couple of nice DPs and a Bregman HR has us right back where we started for now.
 
texasdeac said:
Lots of options that are walking distance from Minute Maid.

Flying Saucer and Bovine & Barley are beer bars with large tap lists and decent bar food. The Conservatory is a food hall with a large tap list as well. Xochi is probably the best restaurant downtown. Highly recommend it for brunch. There's a great Mediterranean market close by called Phoenicia. Lots of options. Heard Potente is good but never been.

Also for cocktails Bad News Bar, Pastry War (gets crowded real quick), Houston Watch Company, and Public Services are all good options. None of these places have food though.
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Pastry War is nice. I used to go to Phoenicia once a week for a quick lunch when I worked down there. Also, if you happen to want Vietnamese, Huynh is excellent. #94, Mi Quang, is one of my favorite Vietnamese dishes in a city with lots of options.

Hearsay has two locations and one is very close to the stadium. It has never been one of my favorites, but several of my friends are fans. I do like the cocktails, but I have not been blown away by the food.
 
Justin Turner just keeps on keeping on. Dude is unreal.
 
qcdeac said:
I would think a minimum of 10 starts. Pretty rare you are going to get through the lineup 4 times.
Click to expand...

RJKarl said:
Depends on the where the guy bats and who he has played for.
Click to expand...

Verlander led the league in batters faced this year and he averaged less than 27 batters a game. Even if we were talking a leadoff hitter, I don’t see any pitchers facing 37 batters regularly in this era.
 
texasdeac said:
Standing room tickets in Houston are starting at $650. The tickets I spent $199 on stub hub for the ALCS are now $1500.
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Yeah, looking at tickets on Stubhub, they seem to be identical between the two cities. I'm surprised.

However, the fact that it's 7PM on Friday and Saturday night at Houston versus 5PM on Tuesday and Wednesday in LA might make a significant difference. You have to leave work at 2PM to make the Dodger game work.
 
TownieDeac said:
And quite a few other things. Even if batters hit at the top of the order, don't miss starts, and never walk (because those aren't counted as ABs, but we can just assume you're talking PAs) and they're facing a pitcher from their conference who is getting 35 starts in a season (higher than most top level starters in the modern era), they're only likely to face them at most 8-12 times in a regular season. That's assuming all the highest level of times you can face each other. To get to the 20 benchmark you need those perfect conditions for two straight seasons. Typically it takes somewhere more like 5-7 years for average batter to face an average pitcher 20 times. Over the course of either respective player's career, that stretch likely either represents a massive incline or massive decline, depending on where it happens.

The splits aren't nearly as helpful as lefty/righty or home/away in terms of situational splits. Really aren't useful even when you do have a good sample size for the reasons listed above and the many others in the article.
Click to expand...

MHBDemon said:
https://books.google.com/books?id=FrUYdXKZFZwC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=twopage&q&f=false

RJ, if you are interested, go read Chapter 3, or just pages 71 through 80. The chapter says not even 60 PAs is enough to provide predictive value.

Also, chapter 2 disproves the "hot hand" theory though it says there is just a tiny bit of predictive value of hot and cold streaks for pitchers.
Click to expand...

If I ever guessed RJ's password I'd just post things like "Interesting article, guess I was wrong. Thanks" Biff really donked that one up. Would have been epic.
 
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