Official 2018 NBA Offseason Thread: the preseason cometh

[DeacsATS]

i sorta like that folks are just assuming toronto gets to the finals with kawhi playing

like hey homies, remember how a couple of months ago we were all hedging on his totally unknown possible debilitating injury, which still hasn't been cleared up at all, and his will to play the game of basketball, which should skyrocket, as the guy who spent the last decade of his life living in san diego and san antonio and was trying to orchestrate a move to los angeles is instead forced to move to *checks notes* toronto

never mind the fact that their top rivals are a team that is about to run out 3 all-nba caliber players and a guy coming off one of the best rookie campaigns in the history of the sport

I don't feel like anyone is doing that.

I think most feel like it is a forgone conclusion that Boston will rule the East for the next few years... With the 76ers the only team with a real shot to compete.

I just think it is early to say that given we haven't seen Irving, Hayward, Horford, Tatum & others all on the court at the same time yet. In theory, it should be great.

With Toronto, I just think people forget they were the #1 seed because of how terrible they looked against the Cavs... If healthy (BIG IF), the Leonard makes them better (if only because DeRozan won't be around to shit the bed in the playoffs).

I have no dog in the fight... Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

 

[DeacsATS]

They won 47 games with Leonard playing none and added an all star. To think they will be "ok" for the next few seasons is misguided IMO.

As for Leonard, what exactly has he done to make you think he will actually play for Toronto? He basically submarined any chance of getting a super max in San Antonio on purpose just so he could try to get to LA. Cost himself $80 million. You think he cares about playing a second in Toronto after already doing that? Fat chance IMO. Someone will still give him the max no matter what once he hits free agency. Why would he play now?

Two thoughts:

1- I think taking 47 wins last year and adding to that based on picking up DeRozan is way too simplistic. Defense matters. Also concerned w/ how DeRozan fits in on the offensive end. I think they'll be worse. No idea how many wins that is.
2- If he hasn't played for 2 years, he either has a serious injury or he's a complete headcase... I doubt he'd get the max from anyone. I could be wrong there. Look at Isaiah Thomas, though. Clearly not as good of a player, but talk about a quick fall from grace.

 

[DeacsATS]

i sorta like that folks are just assuming toronto gets to the finals with kawhi playing

like hey homies, remember how a couple of months ago we were all hedging on his totally unknown possible debilitating injury, which still hasn't been cleared up at all, and his will to play the game of basketball, which should skyrocket, as the guy who spent the last decade of his life living in san diego and san antonio and was trying to orchestrate a move to los angeles is instead forced to move to *checks notes* toronto

never mind the fact that their top rivals are a team that is about to run out 3 all-nba caliber players and a guy coming off one of the best rookie campaigns in the history of the sport

To add to my point... Odds to win the East next year as of right this second:
Boston -120
Philly +340
Toronto +550
Milwaukee +1500

I think Boston wins the East, but I'd take Toronto with those odds.

 

[DeacdeTejas]

In a vacuum it makes sense to say Spurs had 47 wins last year, they added an All Star, they'll be just as good if not better. Rosters, chemistry, make up, etc are all more fluid than that. Throw in Pop's whole family situation. I just don't think "47 wins last year + De Rozan = better" is a fair argument.

That team has lost two starters now in Kyle Anderson and Danny Green, as well as partial starter/6th man Tony Parker, who is also someone who is a foundational piece in that culture.

I think the Spurs will be fine, they are a top notch organization and still have some interesting pieces, but I don't think its fair to automatically pencil them into the playoff picture

 

[DeacdeTejas]

To add to my point... Odds to win the East next year as of right this second:
Boston -120
Philly +340
Toronto +550
Milwaukee +1500

I think Boston wins the East, but I'd take Toronto with those odds.

Agree with that

 

[JamesSokolove]

I posted this on another thread:

Texas Republican Congressman Will Hurd said tonight that Trump is being manipulated by Putin. Hurd is a former CIA Agent.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/19/o...-congress.html

Trump Is Being Manipulated by Putin. What Should We Do?

"Over the course of my career as an undercover officer in the C.I.A., I saw Russian intelligence manipulate many people. I never thought I would see the day when an American president would be one of them.

The president’s failure to defend the United States intelligence community’s unanimous conclusions of Russian meddling in the 2016 election and condemn Russian covert counterinfluence campaigns and his standing idle on the world stage while a Russian dictator spouted lies confused many but should concern all Americans. By playing into Vladimir Putin’s hands, the leader of the free world actively participated in a Russian disinformation campaign that legitimized Russian denial and weakened the credibility of the United States to both our friends and foes abroad.

As a member of Congress, a coequal branch of government designed by our founders to provide checks and balances on the executive branch, I believe that lawmakers must fulfill our oversight duty as well as keep the American people informed of the current danger."

 

[RChildress107]

To add to my point... Odds to win the East next year as of right this second:
Boston -120
Philly +340
Toronto +550
Milwaukee +1500

I think Boston wins the East, but I'd take Toronto with those odds.

I think those odds reflect the uncertainty around Kawhi’s health and willingness to play in Toronto. It’s a huge IF, but if he shows up looking like 16-17 Kawhi for the first 10 games I would expect those odds to shift extensively.

The Celts lineup is daunting but the Raptors will have the best player on the floor. That series would be as good as good as HOU/GSW last year and I actually think both teams have more of a shot against the Warriors than people think.

 

[thatguy2016]

To add to my point... Odds to win the East next year as of right this second:
Boston -120
Philly +340
Toronto +550
Milwaukee +1500

I think Boston wins the East, but I'd take Toronto with those odds.

do you believe one of the top 3 will win the East? I do

if you REALLY believe that, can't you arbitrage those odds betting, for example,

$1200 on Boston
$500 on Philly
$338 on Toronto

so you're in for $2,038 and whomever wins you get $2200 or an 8% return

*of course you can hit this 12 times in a row but if on the 13th time, one of the top 3 does not win, the strategy fails

 

[RJKarl]

Risking over $2000 to win $162 is a terrible bet.

 

[Wrangor]

I think Aldridge is getting up there in age and won't be as good next year, especially with a guy like DeRozan who doesn't stretch a defense in the least. Pau is a year older. I also think losing Danny Green and Kyle Anderson hurts a lot. I also think the West will be better with teams like the Suns and Kings not looking to actively tank like last year and the Lakers obviously being better. 45 wins.

I guess we will see. I tend to believe that no one stretched it last year (Green - 37% FG, Slo-Mo didn't take threes, Kawhi didn't play, Parker is 15 ft and in). The addition of Belinelli (better shooter than Green at every level), Derozan (another 20ppg scorer), Poeltl (finishes and moves well...would not be surprised to see his range expand), and Lonnie Walker (great all around game for a rookie....should make contributions this year) is enough for them to be a MUCH better offensive team, and perhaps a slightly worse defensive team (but I really don't even think that will end up being the case).

I have seen Popovich put together 50 win season too many times to doubt him. He almost did it last year with a pretty awful team. They have added a lot of good pieces this year and expect them to improve greatly.

Popovich has averaged over 57 wins over a 21 year period. I tend to think he will land pretty close to that mark when he has a full team.

 

[Milhouse]

I guess we will see. I tend to believe that no one stretched it last year (Green - 37% FG, Slo-Mo didn't take threes, Kawhi didn't play, Parker is 15 ft and in). The addition of Belinelli (better shooter than Green at every level), Derozan (another 20ppg scorer), Poeltl (finishes and moves well...would not be surprised to see his range expand), and Lonnie Walker (great all around game for a rookie....should make contributions this year) is enough for them to be a MUCH better offensive team, and perhaps a slightly worse defensive team (but I really don't even think that will end up being the case).

I have seen Popovich put together 50 win season too many times to doubt him. He almost did it last year with a pretty awful team. They have added a lot of good pieces this year and expect them to improve greatly.

Popovich has averaged over 57 wins over a 21 year period. I tend to think he will land pretty close to that mark when he has a full team.

hmmmmmm, i wonder what the driving factor was?

 

[Ayo]

I guess we will see. I tend to believe that no one stretched it last year (Green - 37% FG, Slo-Mo didn't take threes, Kawhi didn't play, Parker is 15 ft and in). The addition of Belinelli (better shooter than Green at every level), Derozan (another 20ppg scorer), Poeltl (finishes and moves well...would not be surprised to see his range expand), and Lonnie Walker (great all around game for a rookie....should make contributions this year) is enough for them to be a MUCH better offensive team, and perhaps a slightly worse defensive team (but I really don't even think that will end up being the case).

I have seen Popovich put together 50 win season too many times to doubt him. He almost did it last year with a pretty awful team. They have added a lot of good pieces this year and expect them to improve greatly.

Popovich has averaged over 57 wins over a 21 year period. I tend to think he will land pretty close to that mark when he has a full team.

Yeah, Duncan, Robinson, Parker, and Manu aren't walking through that door, but OK.

 

[dartsndeacs]

To add to my point... Odds to win the East next year as of right this second:
Boston -120
Philly +340
Toronto +550
Milwaukee +1500

I think Boston wins the East, but I'd take Toronto with those odds.

I'd take boston with those odds and not think twice.

 

[dartsndeacs]

Korver gonna go to the SIXERS. Redick and Korver on the same team. The MAGA team.

 

[thatguy2016]

Yeah, Duncan, Robinson, Parker, and Manu aren't walking through that door, but OK.

well, manu is, but he turns 41 next week

 

[RJKarl]

I like the Sixers getting Korver for a guy wouldn't play.

Getting Muscala is not a bad bench move.

 

[DeacsATS]

I'd take boston with those odds and not think twice.

Yeah, -120 isn't completely ridiculous. I'll grant you that.

For comparison, the Warriors are -225 to win the West (with HOU +500 & LAL +600).

I just have a real hard time taking the a favorite with a minus sign in front of it to win 3 playoff series that won't even start for 9-10 months. Too much can happen between now and then. There is always a chance that you get a better opportunity between now and then. That's why I liked TOR at +550... If Kawhi is healthy, that should come down a bit.

Or you just not be a degenerate gambler... That's an option, too (I guess).

 

[RChildress107]

I guess we will see. I tend to believe that no one stretched it last year (Green - 37% FG, Slo-Mo didn't take threes, Kawhi didn't play, Parker is 15 ft and in). The addition of Belinelli (better shooter than Green at every level), Derozan (another 20ppg scorer), Poeltl (finishes and moves well...would not be surprised to see his range expand), and Lonnie Walker (great all around game for a rookie....should make contributions this year) is enough for them to be a MUCH better offensive team, and perhaps a slightly worse defensive team (but I really don't even think that will end up being the case).

I have seen Popovich put together 50 win season too many times to doubt him. He almost did it last year with a pretty awful team. They have added a lot of good pieces this year and expect them to improve greatly.

Popovich has averaged over 57 wins over a 21 year period. I tend to think he will land pretty close to that mark when he has a full team.

There’s a reason the Spurs 3P% tanked across the board last year. Kawhi creates open looks for other guys that weren’t there last year and that DeRozan won’t be able to create. Belinelli’s 3P shooting has been as up and down across his career as Danny Green’s has. He’s a better mid-range shooter but it’s hard to see the Spurs offense improving much by going all in on mid-range jumpers.

The potential for a fall off on defense is huge. If Popovich can put out another top 5 defense with this roster it will be the greatest accomplishment of his career. It’s hard to overstate the drop off from Green to DeRozan on D and the Spurs also lost Anderson who was arguably their second best defender last year behind Murray.

You can still win in the NBA by slowing the pace, taking high percentage 2P shots and limiting your opponents 3P attempts, but the margin for error on the defensive side is small. The 3>2 math gets bad real quick with even a slight slip on the defensive end.

Pop’s a wizard and his staff is capable of innovating on the fly, but it looks like a pretty tall task

 

[PhDeac]

Kawhi also hit threes himself.

 

[dartsndeacs]

Yeah, -120 isn't completely ridiculous. I'll grant you that.

For comparison, the Warriors are -225 to win the West (with HOU +500 & LAL +600).

I just have a real hard time taking the a favorite with a minus sign in front of it to win 3 playoff series that won't even start for 9-10 months. Too much can happen between now and then. There is always a chance that you get a better opportunity between now and then. That's why I liked TOR at +550... If Kawhi is healthy, that should come down a bit.

Or you just not be a degenerate gambler... That's an option, too (I guess).

Yeah, but I mean in the "anything can happen" sphere, BOS is a legit 10 deep and fairly interchangeable. Betting on Embiid to stay healthy for a full season seems way riskier. I think -200 is closer, I may up and jump on -120 myself.