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OFFICIAL 2023 Wake Forest Demon Deacons Football Thread

Wakeforest22890

Wakeforest22890

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Wake's football season is over so obviously it's time to look ahead to next year and make wild projections/predictions based on the schedule and general roster knowledge we have (which is more tumultuous than ever with the transfer portal in full swing).

2023 Opponents:

Elon
Vanderbilt
@ Old Dominion
@ Notre Dame

@ Clemson
@ Syracuse
@ Duke
@ Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh
Florida State
NC State

General Expectations Odds Wise (barring major unforeseen issues)

Wake should be favored: Elon, Vanderbilt, Old Dominion, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech

Just starting with the two weakest teams on the schedule, Elon and Old Dominion, Wake will be heavy favorites in these games even including the road game. Similarly, even if Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech improve by 3-7 points on this year while Wake regresses a few points, the Deacs should still be favored. Georgia Tech and Vandy improved as the season went along but they were pretty far down in the basement to start with. Virginia Tech is working in a new system, but they were not good at all this year at any point. They have a decent ways to go.

Wake should be an underdog: Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State

ND is likely adding Hartman while Clemson seems to be set at QB with Cade. Both will be top 25 teams. Similarly, FSU came on very strong at the end of the season and looks to be a preseason top 20-25 team with a little bit of swagger back. Clemson and ND on the road makes these very tough asks overall and I think FSU would be around a 6 point favorite (maybe more depending on how the rest of the offseason shakes out) or so even with the game in Winston

Tossups: Duke, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse

These are either games where there are a ton of unknowns overall (State QB situation, will Syracuse continue their regression, what does season two with Elko look like for Duke) or just games that should project as a tight matchup based on the 2022 season. Wake gets a couple of these at home and I'd expect that the line on these games if set today would be between 3.5 points either way. Holding serve against State and Pitt at home would be a solid baseline here, as would snagging one of the road games at Cuse or Duke.

Breaking this down, I'd say that this places Wake around 6.5-7 wins for Vegas preseason (probably 6.5 given the questions Wake will have re: defense - which was consistently a bottom 10-15 unit in pass defense all year - and how we set up with a new QB at the helm). Realistically, this is probably a bit of a rebuilding season, but one where the Deacs' schedule sets up somewhat nicely to continue the bowl streak if we take care of business.

With lots of unknowns, plenty of this could change, but what does everyone foresee for next year with the 2023 schedule?
 
Defense needs some help from the portal. Some big old guys to play interior D-line. Some guys like Kobie Turner. More mature guys seem to do better than the youngsters playing in the trenches.

Experienced DBs who have already shown they can successfully cover college wide receivers. I'm not a fan of relying on unproven true freshmen at DB.
 
We are going to find out what our new floor is next season.
 
There are still pieces that need to fall into place, but right now, I would take the over 6.5 wins for WF against that schedule. One other note, things are looking grim for Syracuse right now, although the Dome is always a tough place to play. They have lost a ton to the portal, and they lost the OC (who is a stud) to NC State. Would lean to putting Cuse in the "teams WF should be favored against", even though that game is a roadie. Deacs really should win at least 5 out of:

home Vandy
home Elon
home GT
@ Cuse
@ ODU
@ VT

Not too much to ask for WF to win two of the other six games on the schedule. Also, while every team is different, WF has pretty much owned NC State at home for the last two decades (9-1).
 
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I expect Griffis to be between this year’s Sam and last year’s Sam. He will have the running ability that we lacked this year but not the experience. I fully trust our coaches to develop our next QB. Look at their track record! I would also take the over 6.5 at this point.
 
I think Griffis will be worse than either of the last two seasons of Sam. I think having expectations that he is going to exceed Hartman's numbers/talent with this number of years in the system is entirely unrealistic. I mean sure I hope he's better, but I think that's wildly optimistic.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
I think Griffis will be worse than either of the last two seasons of Sam. I think having expectations that he is going to exceed Hartman's numbers/talent with this number of years in the system is entirely unrealistic. I mean sure I hope he's better, but I think that's wildly optimistic.
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It is similar to the Newman situation for me. He has a few years in the system. Newman came in and was ready to go immediately.
 
Griffis will be in his 4th year in the WF offensive system.
 
deacdixieboy said:
It is similar to the Newman situation for me. He has a few years in the system. Newman came in and was ready to go immediately.
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I guess? I mean Newman played the last four games of his redshirt sophomore season and had 9 TDs v 4 picks before beating Hartman out in camp the next season for the starting job. I'm not knocking on Griffis, I just think there's a bit of a learning curve and that Hartman is a lot better than some folks believe (not saying you're in this group, just that I think Hartman made running the offense look easier than it was). I'd love for Griffis to come in and set the world on fire, but realistically I don't know what that looks like.
 
Pilchard said:
Griffis will be in his 4th year in the WF offensive system.
Click to expand...
Right so he'll also be in his fourth season when he gets the starting job like Newman was. Only difference is Newman getting a little run against P5 teams the previous year.
 
I'm Griffis wait and see, although growing more optimistic hearing the staff's praise of him, and excited how we tweak the system with a seemingly more mobile QB. A bit worried about his ability to throw the deep ball, but not much gametime sample size there.
 
deacdixieboy said:
It is similar to the Newman situation for me. He has a few years in the system. Newman came in and was ready to go immediately.
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This is where I am. Griffis looked good when he opened this year. Not unreasonable to expect someone who has been in the program for three years to step in and play well.

Really hope we roll Griffis out more and give him the option of an underneath route or to pick up yards with his legs. He reminds me a lot of Wolford.
 
Griffis had a quiet confidence that impressed me when he came in. It was clear he'd been preparing himself for that moment. And the one on-the-run TD throw was quite nice. Hope his smaller frame holds up.
 
posted this on a different thread, but it's more relevant here

thoughts going into 2023:
  • I feel good about Mitch Griffis
  • Returning KWilliams, DGreene, Morin, and Banks along with Grimes/Horatio Fields/Micah stepping up will continue to make Wake the premier WRU in the ACC
  • Offensive line is a concern. Losing 3/4 starters from a group that was shaky all year is a major red flag.
  • Along with that, we need to develop a more consistent run game. Ellison is a quality ACC-level RB. Going to need Claiborne, Towns, and/or Carney to step up
  • We have to go to the portal for some Dlinemen and CBs ASAP
  • Jasheen Davis, Hazen, Chase Jones, Mustapha, Carson, and Garnes are all guys we will be counting on big time defensively next year
  • Schedule is a bit tougher, but I think we'll be ticked off from this underwhelming past season

Wayyyyyy too early 2023 prediction:
Elon Phoenix - W
Vanderbilt Commodores - W
at Old Dominion Monarchs - W
at Notre Dame Fighting Irish - L
at Clemson Tigers - L
at Syracuse Orange - W
Florida State Seminoles - L
NC State Wolfpack - W
at Duke Blue Devils - W
at Virginia Tech Hokies - W
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - W
Pitt Panthers - W

9-3 (6-2)


Is this an overly optimistic prediction? probably
 
We haven’t been 6-2 in conference (other than last year) since 2006 …?
 
The overhaul of the offensive line is the biggest question mark to me. Especially considering the O-line was sketchy at times this season with an experienced group. Bad O-line play would wreck any chance of us being decent.

Not sure what we can point to defensively, either. We are losing some of our best talent on the defensive line, which was our strongest unit. Hoping for some bigger school transfers here.

Will be relying on a lot of new faces to play well. I would take under 6.5 just based on question marks. I would consider .500 a pretty good showing with what we know of the team right now. Below 6 would be disappointing but feels in the range of possibility for the first time in awhile. If we are above .500 this season, then I think our new floor under Clawson is solidified and we can reload for some 8+ win seasons by 2024.
 
Wayyyyyy too early 2023 prediction:
Elon Phoenix - L
Vanderbilt Commodores - L
at Old Dominion Monarchs - L
at Notre Dame Fighting Irish - W
at Clemson Tigers - L
at Syracuse Orange - L
Florida State Seminoles - L
NC State Wolfpack - L
at Duke Blue Devils - L
at Virginia Tech Hokies - L
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - L
Pitt Panthers - L
Click to expand...
 
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